WATERING THE NEIGHBOUR'S GARDEN: THE GROWING - CICRED

SON PREFERENCE AND THE MARRIAGE SQUEEZE IN CHINA…
the possibility for men to marry divorced or widowed spouses.
Our first research finding is that the index of potential sex ratio of
first marriage partners used by Tuljapurkar et al. (1995), without taking
into account the relative numbers of males and females in the baseline
year, underestimates the extent of the male marriage squeeze. We
adjusted that index and devised new indices in order to investigate the
impact of remarriage on China’s future marriage market.
Second, there will be a severe male squeeze from 2000 onwards in
China. After 2013 the annual proportion of excess males will remain
above 10%, and may reach 15% between 2015 and 2045. Consequently,
annual excess males are expected to reach around 1.2 million, a male
squeeze which is more severe than estimated by Tuljapurkar et al.
(1995). In any case, it is undeniable that the future decades will be
characterized by large numbers of bachelors who remain unmarried
against their will.
Third, the sex ratios of the cohorts born after 2000 will exert a
significant influence on the future marriage market. It must therefore
be a priority to curb son preference, and to improve the living
environment for girls.
Fourth, of the total marriage market, remarriage (to never married
spouse) constitutes only a small proportion of the total first marriage
market, but it exerts a great impact on the numbers and proportions of
excess males.
When there is a marriage squeeze in a marriage market, ages at
first marriage for males and females may change to adjust for the
squeeze, leading to an increasing age gap between spouses at marriage.
But these changes themselves cannot solve the marriage squeeze
problem in China, nor can large-scale international migration (Chen,
2004). One possibility is for the excess males to remain life-long
bachelors. But a large number of forced bachelors may cause serious
social disruption, and bring about new social and political challenges
(Attané, 2005; Chen, 2004; Das Gupta and Li, 1999; Poston and
Glover, 2005). Moreover, as already observed in some remote areas in
China, the lack of marriageable women may encourage their trafficking
for a marriage purpose. Female shortage, reflected by the male
marriage squeeze, indicates deprivation of basic human rights of birth
and survival for females. The significant social consequences of son
preference as reflected in the marriage squeeze should be a high
priority area for social and economic research.
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