47. Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12 - Consultancy Services in ...

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Chapter 7InflationThe global economy experienced significantfinancial crises in 2007-08. The financial crisisemanated in subprime mortgage loan portfolio andshocked the confidence of the internationalinstitutions and markets which in turn badlydeteriorated the economic development andbalance of payments across the world. In thedeveloping countries, the crisis was seen at thetime when they were already experiencing severeterms of trade and slower economic growth. Thefinancial meltdown led to a backlash on consumermarkets and broadly on the process of investmentin the production of goods and services. Thiscoupled with spike in commodity and oil prices ledto a decline in the aggregate demand and raisedinflation the world over. In Pakistan the affect wasfelt much severely as the country was alsoexperiencing internal security issues and compaignagainst terrorism. The surge in food andcommodity prices witnessed during 2008-09pushed the consumer prices index (CPI) to a recordlevel of 25.3 percent in August 2008.Fig-7.1: Inflationary Trend25.020.0CPIOld Base2000‐01=100New Base2007‐08=10015.010.05.00.0Jul-08Sep-08Nov-08Jan-09Mar-09May-09Jul-09Sep-09Nov-09Jan-10Mar-10May-10Jul-10Sep-10Nov-10Jan-11Mar-11May-11Jul-11Sep-11Nov-11Jan-12Mar-12The rising trend in domestic prices in tandem withglobal food and fuel prices affect several macroeconomicdynamics - consumption, investment,inflation, trade and fiscal balances and ultimatelyresulted in slow down of GDP growth.Asian Development Bank (ADB) report of 19 thMarch, 2012 titled “Food Price Escalation in SouthAsia” noted that the region suffers from a higheroverall food inflation rate than the rest ofdeveloping Asia. The report further pointed outthat the region, with a large number of peoplealready living close to the poverty line, is one ofthe most vulnerable regions in the world to foodprice shocks. The World Bank has also rated highfood prices as the biggest challenge facing mostdeveloping countries. This rising trend in inflationis not specific to Pakistan. Regional inflation is99
Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12estimated to have also risen in India, Bangladesh and Thailand (Table 7.1).Table: 7.1 Regional Countries Food Price InflationPakistan India Bangladesh Thailand Sri LankaCPI Food CPI Food CPI Food CPI Food CPI FoodJul-11 12.4 17.1 8.4 8.2 11.0 13.4 4.1 7.2 7.4 9.3Aug-11 11.6 13.2 9.0 9.6 11.3 12.7 4.2 8.4 7.0 8.2Sep-11 10.5 9.9 10.1 9.6 12.0 13.8 4.1 8.9 6.4 6.6Oct-11 11.0 11.7 9.4 10.2 11.6 10.9 4.2 9.9 5.1 3.8Nov-11 10.2 10.0 9.3 8.5 11.6 12.5 4.1 10.2 4.7 2.1Dec-11 9.7 9.5 6.5 0.7 10.6 10.4 3.6 9.1 4.9 2.5Jan-12 10.1 9.2 5.3 -0.5 11.6 10.9 3.4 7.7 3.8 -0.2Feb-12 11.0 10.5 8.8 6.1 10.4 8.9 3.4 7.2 2.7 -4.1Mar-12 10.8 9.8 9.5 9.9 10.1 8.3 3.4 7.1 5.5 -2.5Apr-12 11.3 10.7 - - 9.9 8.1 2.7 4.9 6.1 0.2Source: PBS, BBS, Ministry of Commerce & Industry India, Bank of Thailand.Food insecurity is a multi dimensional problemand deserves to be tackled through a multi prongedstrategic approach where demand, supply anddistribution factors need to be taken into account.Availability and access, two important componentsof food security needs to be addressedsimultaneously. Food carries the largest weight inthree price indices and hence influences themovement of these indices even with slightvariation in prices. The most visible impact ofrising food prices on the economy is accelerationof inflationary pressure. In such a situationcontrolling the inflation becomes unmanageable.Pakistan is experiencing double-digit inflation overthe last several years mainly due to increase inprices of food.Inflation is generally measured by the ConsumerPrice Index (CPI). The other measures of inflationused in Pakistan are the Wholesale Price Index(WPI) and Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI).The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) haschanged the base year of the price indices from2000-01 to 2007-08, which by comparison with theprevious base has undergone considerable changein terms of revision to commodity groups; theirweights derived from Family Budget Survey 2007-08; and, coverage of items to capture the changingpattern of consumption of the people.The old basket of commodities in the CPI has beenrevised and the commodities increased from 374 to487 items and the commodity groups from 10 to12. The coverage of cities has also been increasedfrom 35 to 40. Proper representation has beengiven to large cities (population of 500,000 andabove), medium cities (population 100,000 to500,000), medium small cities (population 50,000to 100,000) and small cities (population below50,000). The food group weight has been reducedfrom 40.3 percent to 34.8 percent and 21 items inthe old basket have been dropped while 111 newitems have been added. Health and Restaurant twonew sub indexes have been included. The subindex of transport and communication in the oldbase year has been split into two separate subgroups as transport and communication group.Rent being an important component of CPI is nowcomputed on the basis of real rental value ratherthan using wage rates and prices of constructionmaterials. In the CPI series with base 2000-01, thecoverage in terms of income groups is as below:i. Up to Rs. 3000ii. Rs. 3001 to Rs. 5000iii. Rs. 5001 to Rs. 12000, andiv. Above Rs. 12000In the new series with base 2007-08, the incomegroups have been divided into five incomequintiles as under:i. Up to Rs. 8000ii. Rs. 8001 to Rs. 12000iii. Rs. 12001 to Rs. 18000, andiv. Rs. 18001 to Rs. 35000v. Above Rs. 35000100
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Highlights of the Pakistan Economic
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SOCIAL INDICATORS2001-02 2002-03 20
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Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12Tab
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Special SectionPakistan: Flood Impa
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Pakistan: Flood Impact AssessmentHe
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Pakistan: Flood Impact AssessmentTa
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district roads (including farm-to-m
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Pakistan: Flood Impact AssessmentAf
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System. The main canals are the Pat
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Chapter 2AgricultureThe agriculture
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Agricultureagriculture. Livestock c
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AgricultureTable 2.6: Area, Product
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Agricultureb) Minor Cropsi) Oilseed
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During July-March, 2011-12 about 36
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It is expected about Rs. 30.00 bill
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AgricultureBox-1Credit Disbursement
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AgricultureTable:2.20 Estimated Liv
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AgriculturePoultry Development poli
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AgricultureIn this connection, two
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Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12GDP
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Chapter 3Manufacturing and Mining3.
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Manufacturing and MiningManufacturi
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Manufacturing and MiningBox-2LSM Da
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(i) Cotton Spinning SectorThe spinn
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Manufacturing and Miningyear. Howev
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Chapter 11Health and NutritionAcces
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Health and NutritionHealth Expendit
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achieved in the case of BHUs and 95
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Health and Nutritionglobal initiati
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Health and Nutritiontook necessary
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Chapter 12Population Labour Force a
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Age Composition of PopulationThe ag
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Population, Labour Force and Employ
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Table-12.16: Unemployed - Pakistan
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Chapter 14EnergyEnergy is considere
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EnergyStock Issue• Recovery of re
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Energy14.1 Energy ConsumptionPakist
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Energyto 21.4 percent last year. Th
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Energy14.2-d CoalPakistan has huge
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tariff increases of 6%, 12% and 6%
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Energy14.3-b Petroleum ProductsPetr
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Energybecome a popular domestic fue
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EnergyAlso Laraib Energy Limited (
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EnergyTable 14.14: Oil and Gas Disc
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Energy14.5 Performance of Power Sec
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Energytrend of hydro-thermal energy
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Energy14.5-c Private Power and Infr
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Energy Proposal for undertaking a f
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Chapter 15Social Safety NetsBackgro
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Social Safety NetsBox-1Poverty Alle
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Social Safety NetsTable 15.4: Perce
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Social Safety Netsenterprise develo
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Social Safety Netsdignity of househ
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period of last year. Furthermore, i
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Social Safety Netsand ensure growth
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