47. Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12 - Consultancy Services in ...

Growth and Stabilizationpotential debt servicing difficulties and limit theirabilities to unshackle their growth potential.Almost 17 percent of total exports of Pakistan areto the Euro zone as are a reasonable portion of itstotal import from this region. Problems in this areacan impact on Pakistan’s trade and hence itsoverall growth.Asia on the other hand, continues to move ahead,with China and India leading the growth. There issome hope that perhaps Asia has created somedistance from the OECD, and has therefore, notbeen dragged down so far. However, if the OECDcontinues its downward slide, the export-led Asiangiants could see their growth prospects diminish.Table-1.1: Comparative Real GDP Growth Rates (%)Region/Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (P)World GDP -0.5 5.3 3.9 3.5 4.1Euro Area -4.1 1.9 1.4 -0.3 0.9United States -2.6 3.0 1.7 2.1 2.4Japan -6.3 4.4 -0.7 2.0 1.7Germany -4.7 3.6 3.1 0.6 1.5Canada -2.5 3.2 2.5 2.1 2.2Developing Countries 2.7 7.5 6.2 5.7 6.0China 9.2 10.4 9.2 8.2 8.8Hong Kong SAR -2.7 6.8 5.4 2.6 4.2Korea 0.2 6.1 4.5 3.5 4.0Singapore 0.6 2.8 3.3 2.7 3.9Vietnam 5.3 6.8 5.9 5.6 6.3ASEANIndonesia 4.6 6.2 6.5 6.1 6.6Malaysia -1.6 7.2 5.1 4.4 4.7Thailand -2.3 7.8 0.1 5.5 7.5Philippines 1.1 7.6 3.7 4.2 4.7South AsiaIndia 6.6 10.6 7.2 6.9 7.3Bangladesh 5.9 6.4 6.1 5.9 6.4Sri Lanka 3.5 8.0 8.2 7.5 7.0Pakistan 1.7 3.1 3.0 3.7 4.3Middle EastSaudi Arabia 0.1 4.6 6.8 6.0 4.1Kuwait -5.2 3.4 8.2 6.6 1.8Iran 3.9 5.9 2.0 0.4 1.3Egypt 4.7 5.1 1.8 1.5 3.3AfricaAlgeria 2.4 3.3 2.5 3.1 3.4Morocco 4.9 3.7 4.3 3.7 4.3Tunisia 3.1 3.1 -0.8 2.2 3.5Nigeria 7.0 8.0 7.2 7.1 6.6Kenya 2.6 5.6 5.0 5.2 5.7South Africa -1.5 2.9 3.1 2.7 3.4Source: World Economic Outlook (IMF), April 2012.P: Projected.Pakistan’s economy is very closely linked to therest of the world due to its high external sectorexposure. Several countries of the euro zone areimportant trading partners of Pakistan. As such,any untoward development in these countries couldhave a substantial negative impact on the economyof Pakistan. A contraction or stagnation ineconomic activity in the global economy, canpotentially affect the level of our exports, ForeignDirect Investment (FDI) and home remittancesadversely. Similarly further increase in oil prices3