47. Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12 - Consultancy Services in ...

Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-122to the EDL stock. As a percentage of GDP indollar terms, the EDLwas downby 200 basispoints in July-March, 2012 compared to fiscal year2011 andapproximated to 26.5 percent. Sincefiscal year 2010, EDLhas increased in absoluteterms, butdecreased inrelation to GDP However,focusing on the absoluteincrease in theoutstanding stock of EDL can be misleading fortwo main reasons. Firstly, the outstanding stockofdebt mustbe analyzedin relation tothe size of theeconomy and its repayment capacity (in terms ofGDP and other macroeconommic indicators).Secondly,the absolute change inEDL neglectsclassification between an actual increase in stockand increasescaused by fluctuations ininternational exchange rates.Fig-9.4 External Public Debt(as percent of GDP)60%50%40%30%20%10%0%FY80FY90FY95FY99FY00FY01FY02FY03FY04FY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10FY11Q3-FY12The composition and structure ofPakistan ExternalDebt as on March 31, 2012 isdepicted throughfollowing graphs:Fig-9.5: Structure of EDL -End March, 2012Foreign OthersExchange 6%Liabilities4%IMF13%PrivateNon-GuaranteedDebt6%OtherBilateral4%Paris Club25%Multilaterall42%ScheduledBanks'Borrowing,1%IMF, 13%PrivateNon-GuaranteedDebt, 6%Fig-9.6 : Components ofEDL -End March, 2012ForeignExchangeLiabilities,4%Public andPublicallyGuaranteedDebt, 76%The following section highlights the developmentsin the various components of EDL during the firstnine months of the outgoing fiscal year.I. Publicand Publicly Guaranteed Debt (PPG)At the end-March 2012, Publicand publiclyguaranteed debt accounted for the largest share of76 percent in EDL. Public and publicly guaranteeddebt is dominated by the loans from bilateral andmultilateral donors. Multilateral debt, which is thelargest component of Pakistan’s EDL witnessedadecrease of $730 million during the period underreview. The project-basednature of loanscontractedunder this category hinges on Pakistan’sability toinstill project efficiency. Debt frombilateral sources includes loancontracted withParis Club countries and other countries outsidethe Paris Club. It is second largest component ofPakistan’s EDL. It witnessed anincrease of$137millionduring the period under review.II. IMF DebtAt theend-March2012, debt owed to IMFaggregated up to $8.1 billion. Payment amountingto $793 million hasbeen made in the 3 rd and 4 thquarterr of fiscal year 2012.132