47. Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12 - Consultancy Services in ...

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Chapter 3Manufacturing and Mining3.1 IntroductionThe manufacturing sector posted a growth rate of3.56 percent during the current fiscal year July-March 2011-12 compared to 2.96 percent of thesame period last year. A modest improvement wasseen in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) in July-March 2011-12 as the Quantum Index ofManufacturing (QIM) increased by 1.05 percentagainst the target of 2.0 percent compared togrowth of 0.98 percent during the same period lastyear. Due to revision of the base year as well asnew industries being added, it is not prudent tocompare the performance of the LSM sector on therevised base against the official growth target of2.0 percent (Box-1).Box-1The methodology to compute Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) has been revised during the current fiscalyear. This includes rebasing, addition of new industries and revision of weights. Important Changes can be gaugedfrom the table below.Previous QIMRebased QIM• Base Year 1999-00 • Base Year 2005-06• Weight derived from the Census of • Weight derived from the Census ofManufacturing Industries (CMI) 2000-01Manufacturing Industries (CMI) 2005-06using UN International Standard IndustriesClassification (ISIC) Rev 3.1• Cumulative weight of 75.075 percent for 100items is being used for computation of QIMCMI 2000-01Sources No of Items Weights (%)MOIP /1 35 44.446OCAC /2 11 5.232BOS /3 54 25.397All 100 75.075/1 : Ministry of Industries and Production/2 : Oil Companies Advisory Committee/3 : Bureau of Statistics (Provincial)Comparison of Weights• Cumulative weight of 70.332 percent for 112items is being used for computation of QIMCMI 2005-06Sources No of Items Weights (%)MOIP /1 36 49.556OCAC /2 11 5.410BOS /3 65 15.366All 112 70.33237
Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12The production data received from the OilCompanies Advisory Committee (OCAC)comprising of 11 items, Ministry of Industries andProduction 36 items and the Provincial Bureau ofStatistics 65 items respectively have contributed inLSM growth as -0.26 percent, 0.75 percent and0.55 percent.Fig 3.1: LSM Growth rates (Y-o-Y)15.010.05.00.0-5.0-10.0Jul-10Aug-10Sept-10Oct-10Growth rateNov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11June-11July-11Aug-11Sept-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Source: Pakistan Bureau of StatisticsThe growth rate in Large Scale Manufacturing(LSM) has recovered, largely due to goodperformance among the sub categories such asfood, beverages and tobacco, paper and board,textile, non-metallic mineral products,pharmaceutical and leather products compared tonegative growth seen during the second quarter ofthe current fiscal year. The Year to Year positivegrowth during the start of current fiscal year (July-Sep) can be partially attributed to export demandwhich has increased the production in the shortrun. Dismal performance was seen in the winterseason (Oct-Dec) which was due to persistent gasshortages. Moreover, agro-based industries whichwere recovering from the impact of the floods of2010, was again hit by another natural calamity inthe form of heavy rains in Sindh during August2011. The cotton crop is most vulnerable to floodsand almost all major sugarcane producing districtswere affected but losses to sugarcane were loweras the crop is relatively resilient to flooding. Thefloods also damaged industrial supply networksand rural demand and this coupled with severepower and natural gas shortages led to a number ofkey industries (textile, fertilizer, steel, glass etc)not operating at expected levels.LSM production began to revive in December2011 as the impact of flood began to subside. Aremarkable growth of 6.0 percent was witnessed inFeb-2012. This could also be attributed to thebeneficial effect of specific policies on large scaleindustry. Effective fiscal policy helped inrevitalizing the growth to some extent due toreduction in duties on beverages, automobiles,cement and air conditioners. This step wasnecessitated in view of the costly input prices andthe need to absorb the volatility in the productionof these industries. In addition, the growth in agrobasedindustries was based on increase in cotton(Punjab) and sugarcane production during thecurrent fiscal year. In March 2012, the year to yearperformance of the sector turned negative byregistering a decline of 3.7 percent owing toprolonged power and gas shortages.Group-wise PerformanceThe group-wise analysis (Table 3.1) indicatessome of the groups in the Large Scale38
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SOCIAL INDICATORS2001-02 2002-03 20
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Chapter 7InflationThe global econom
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InflationThe basket of goods that m
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Table:7.6 Rate of Inflation on the
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InflationPercent1918171615141312111
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InflationTable:7.11 Essential items
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InflationRegional PricesPrices of e
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Chapter 8Trade and PaymentsThe unfa
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Trade and Paymentsthe services acco
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This was mainly due to current acco
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Trade and PaymentsTable 8.3: Struct
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Trade and Paymentsconcentration is
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Table 8.6: Structure of ImportsPart
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Trade and PaymentsAmendments in Exp
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Chapter 11Health and NutritionAcces
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Health and NutritionHealth Expendit
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achieved in the case of BHUs and 95
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Health and Nutritionglobal initiati
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Health and Nutritiontook necessary
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Chapter 12Population Labour Force a
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Age Composition of PopulationThe ag
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Population, Labour Force and Employ
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Table-12.16: Unemployed - Pakistan
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Chapter 14EnergyEnergy is considere
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EnergyStock Issue• Recovery of re
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Energy14.1 Energy ConsumptionPakist
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Energyto 21.4 percent last year. Th
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Energy14.2-d CoalPakistan has huge
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tariff increases of 6%, 12% and 6%
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Energy14.3-b Petroleum ProductsPetr
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Energybecome a popular domestic fue
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EnergyAlso Laraib Energy Limited (
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EnergyTable 14.14: Oil and Gas Disc
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Energy14.5 Performance of Power Sec
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Energytrend of hydro-thermal energy
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Energy14.5-c Private Power and Infr
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Energy Proposal for undertaking a f
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Chapter 15Social Safety NetsBackgro
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Social Safety NetsBox-1Poverty Alle
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Social Safety NetsTable 15.4: Perce
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Social Safety Netsenterprise develo
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Social Safety Netsdignity of househ
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period of last year. Furthermore, i
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Social Safety Netsand ensure growth
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