47. Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12 - Consultancy Services in ...

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Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-129.2 Public DebtTotal public debt is a measure of governmentindebtedness. It includes all government andgovernment guaranteed obligations denominated inrupee as well as foreign currency. It is an importantmeans of bridging government financing gaps.However, excessive reliance on public debt andinappropriate public debt management raisemacroeconomic risks, impede economic growth,and hinder economic development. Domestic andexternal debt should be treated separately.Domestic debt is a charge on the budget and mustbe serviced through government revenues and/oradditional borrowings whereas external debt (bothpublic and private) in addition to governmentrevenues is also a charge on the balance ofpayment and must be serviced from foreignexchange earnings, reserve drawdown, andadditional borrowings.As at end of March 2012, public debt stood at Rs.12,024 billion registering an increase of Rs. 1,315billion or 12.3 percent as compared to fiscal year2011. The increased amount includes Rs. 391billion consolidated by the government into publicdebt against outstanding previous years subsidiesrelated to the food and energy sectors. Public debtas a percent of GDP stood at 58.2 percent by end-March 2012 compared to 55.5 percent of GDPduring the same period last year.Table-9.1 Public Debt1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*(In billion Rs.)Domestic Currency Debt 374 790 1,576 2,178 3,275 3,859 4,654 6,015 7,206Foreign Currency Debt 428 873 1,442 1,913 2,780 3,736 4,284 4,694 4,818Total Public Debt 801 1,662 3,018 4,091 6,055 7,595 8,938 10,709 12,024(In percent of GDP)Rupee Debt 42.8 42.3 41.2 33.5 32.0 30.3 31.4 33.4 34.9Foreign Currency Debt 48.9 46.8 37.7 29.4 27.1 29.4 28.9 26.0 23.3Total Public Debt 91.7 89.1 78.9 62.9 59.1 59.7 60.4 59.4 58.2(In percent of Revenue)Rupee Debt 235 245 308 242 218 208 224 266 251Foreign Currency Debt 269 270 281 213 185 202 206 208 168Total Public Debt 505 515 589 455 404 410 430 474 419(In percent of Total Debt)Rupee Debt 46.6 47.5 52.2 53.2 54.1 50.8 52.1 56.2 59.9Foreign Currency Debt 53.4 52.5 47.8 46.8 45.9 49.2 47.9 43.8 40.1Memo:Foreign Currency Debt19.5 28.1 27.5 32.1 40.7 45.9 50.1 54.6 53.1($ Billion)Exchange Rate21.9 31.1 52.5 59.7 68.3 81.4 85.5 86.0 90.7(Rs./U.S.$, E.O.P)GDP (in Rs. Billion) 874 1,866 3,826 6,500 10,243 12,724 14,804 18,033 20,654Total Revenue (in Rs. Billion) 159 323 513 900 1,499 1,851 2,078 2,261 2,871Source: State Bank of Pakistan, Budget Wing, Economic Adviser’s Wing & Debt Policy Coordination Office* End-MarchHistorically, public debt stock accounted foralmost the same burden from domestic andexternal sources. However, government hasincreasingly focused on the domestic part over thelast few years owing to non-availability ofsufficient external financing i.e. domesticborrowings inched up in share from 46.6 percent infiscal year 1990 to 59.9 percent at end March,2012.126
PublicDebt605550454035302520151050Fig-9. 2 Sources of Public Debt (percent)FY90FY95FY99FY00FY01FY02FY03Domestic Currency DebtFY04FY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10Foreign Currency DebtFY 11Q3-FY12The public debt may be understated withoutreporting contingentliabilities. Contingentliabilities are not added to the overall debt of thecountry. However, contingent liabilitiesarepossible obligations that arises from past eventsand whose existence will be confirmed only by theoccurrence or non-occurrence ofone or moreuncertain future events not wholly within thecontrol ofthe government. In the case of Pakistan,these include, for instance, explicit and implicitguarantees issued to Public Sector Enterprises(PSEs) and unfunded losses of stateowned entities.The GovernmentofPakistan issued newguarantees aggregatingg Rs. 146.6 billion or 0. .71percent of GDP. Total outstanding stock ofgovernment guarantees as of March2012 stoodatRs. 487 billion.Table-9.2 Guarantees Outstandingas of March 31, 2012(Rs. Billion)Outstanding Guaranteesextended487to PSEs-Domestic Currency256-ForeignCurrency231Memo:Foreign Currency (US$ Million)2,5444Source: Debt Policy Coordination Office9.2.1 Dynamics of Public Debt BurdenBorrowing domestically or externally is a normal,indeed, necessary part of economic activity. Theeconomic rationalefor debt creation is thatborrowers can earn a higher economic returnthanthe cost of investedfunds and that these economicreturnscan then be translated intofinancial returns.Debt problems forgovernments arise if debt-of debt. This mayalso be expressed as debtservicing capacity does not keeppace with growthexceeding sustainable levels.The level of debt depends on the debt servicingcapacity of the economy i.e. export earnings andrevenue generation. The debtburden can beexpressed in terms of the stockratio i.e. debt toGDP, external debt to GDP or flow ratios i.e. debtto revenue, external debt to foreign exchangeearnings. It is common practice to measure thepublic debt burdenas a percentage of GDP;however, it makes more sensee to measuree debtburdenin terms of flow ratiosbecause earningpotential reflects more accurately on repaymentcapacity as GDP changes do not fully translate intorevenues, particularly in case of Pakistan where thetaxation systems are inelastic and the taxationmachinery is weak.127
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Highlights of the Pakistan Economic
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SOCIAL INDICATORS2001-02 2002-03 20
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Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12Tab
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Special SectionPakistan: Flood Impa
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Pakistan: Flood Impact AssessmentHe
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Pakistan: Flood Impact AssessmentTa
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district roads (including farm-to-m
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Pakistan: Flood Impact AssessmentAf
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System. The main canals are the Pat
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Chapter 2AgricultureThe agriculture
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Agricultureagriculture. Livestock c
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AgricultureTable 2.6: Area, Product
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Agricultureb) Minor Cropsi) Oilseed
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During July-March, 2011-12 about 36
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It is expected about Rs. 30.00 bill
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AgricultureBox-1Credit Disbursement
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AgricultureTable:2.20 Estimated Liv
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AgriculturePoultry Development poli
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AgricultureIn this connection, two
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Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12GDP
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Chapter 3Manufacturing and Mining3.
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Manufacturing and MiningManufacturi
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Manufacturing and MiningBox-2LSM Da
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(i) Cotton Spinning SectorThe spinn
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Manufacturing and Miningyear. Howev
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Manufacturing and MiningEast. Expor
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Manufacturing and Miningsubstitute
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Page 150 and 151: Chapter 7InflationThe global econom
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Page 158 and 159: InflationTable:7.11 Essential items
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Chapter 14EnergyEnergy is considere
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EnergyStock Issue• Recovery of re
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Energy14.1 Energy ConsumptionPakist
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Energyto 21.4 percent last year. Th
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Energy14.2-d CoalPakistan has huge
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tariff increases of 6%, 12% and 6%
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Energy14.3-b Petroleum ProductsPetr
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Energybecome a popular domestic fue
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EnergyAlso Laraib Energy Limited (
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EnergyTable 14.14: Oil and Gas Disc
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Energy14.5 Performance of Power Sec
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Energytrend of hydro-thermal energy
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Energy14.5-c Private Power and Infr
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Energy Proposal for undertaking a f
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Chapter 15Social Safety NetsBackgro
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Social Safety NetsBox-1Poverty Alle
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Social Safety NetsTable 15.4: Perce
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Social Safety Netsenterprise develo
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Social Safety Netsdignity of househ
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period of last year. Furthermore, i
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Social Safety Netsand ensure growth
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