47. Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12 - Consultancy Services in ...

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InflationThe basket of goods that makes up the WPI hasalso been revised for the base year 2007-08 due tochange of consumption patterns. In the currentseries of WPI, items are categorized into fivecommodity groups namely: (i) food products,beverages and tobacco, textiles, apparel and leatherproducts (ii) agriculture forestry and fisheryproducts (iii) ores and minerals, electricity gas andwater (iv) other transportable goods except metalproducts, machinery and equipment (v) metalproduct machinery and equipment. A set of 463items have been selected instead of 425 items toaccommodate changes in the production and salesof commodities in the wholesale market in 21major cities instead of 18; with coverage of 112commodities.The SPI indicates the weekly change of prices of53 selected items of daily use prevailing in 17major cities as consumed by six groups (Table 7.2)whose monthly income ranges from Rs. 8,000 toRs. 35,000 per month and an overall households(“combined”) category.Table:7.2 Inflation by Consumer Income GroupsUpto Rs.Combined Upto Rs.80008001-12000Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS)Upto Rs.12001-18000Upto Rs.18001-35000AboveRs.35000The key changes in the computation of the various indices are summarized in Table 7.3 below:Table:7.3 Price Indices in PakistanBase Year 2007-08=10 Base Year 2000-01=100Features CPI SPI WPI Features CPI SPI WPICities covered 40 17 21 Cities covered 35 17 18Markets covered 76 53 21 Markets covered 71 53 18Items covered 487 53 463 Items covered 374 53 425Commodities covered 89 - 112 Commodities covered 92 - 106No. of commodity groups 12 - 5 No. of commodity groups 10 - 5No. of price quotations 148048 11236 2366 No. of price quotations 106,216 11236 1,550Reporting Frequency Monthly Weekly Monthly Reporting Frequency Monthly Weekly MonthlyIncome Groups (in baseIncome Groups (in baseSix Quintile Six Quintile -year) with separate basketyear) with separate basketFour Four -Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS)Inflationary TrendsThe year 2011-12 (Jul-Apr) witnessed bothdemand pull and cost push inflation when viewedin the backdrop of the affects of the floods of 2010and heavy rains in 2011, which almost wiped outthe major and minor standing crops in Sindhprovince, created disruption in the supply chainwhich resulted in surging inflation. The globalspikes in commodities and fuel prices also exertedpressure on domestic inflation.Inflation on year to year basis reveals that the CPIwas highest in July 2011 at 12.4 percent. However,in December 2011 it declined to single digit at 9.7percent. Thereafter it increased steadily andreached 11.3 percent in April 2012. Food inflationon a year to year basis was highest in July 2011and lowest in January 2012 at 9.2 percent. Nonfoodinflation was lowest in July 2011 at 9.2percent and highest at 11.6 percent in April 2012.Core inflation during the last nine months of theyear remained almost at double digit levels exceptin July 2011 when it dropped to single digit at 9.5percent (Table 7.4). The main factor contributingto the rise of non-food inflation was the upwardadjustment of energy, gas and fuel prices.101
Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12Table 7.4 Inflation on year on year (Y-o-Y) Basis %ChangeCommodity Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12CPI 12.4 11.6 10.5 11.0 10.2 9.7 10.1 11.0 10.8 11.3Food 17.1 13.2 9.9 11.7 10.0 9.5 9.2 10.5 9.8 10.7Non-Food 9.2 10.4 10.9 10.4 10.3 9.9 10.7 11.5 11.5 11.6Core 9.5 10.0 10.6 10.4 10.4 10.1 10.2 10.6 10.8 10.8WPI 20.3 18.7 17.0 15.4 12.0 8.3 8.7 7.2 4.5 3.8SPI 12.7 11.9 8.7 8.2 5.9 5.1 6.8 8.3 8.4 9.7The Consumer Price Index (CPI) on average basisrecorded as 10.8 percent during Jul-Apr 2011-12 ascompared to 13.8 percent during the same periodlast year. The two broad component of CPI, foodand non-food inflation recorded an increase of 11.1percent and 10.7 percent respectively during theperiod under review compared to 18.8 percent and10.8 percent during Jul-Apr 2010-11. While theWholesale Price Index (WPI), during Jul-Apr2011-12 recorded as 11.2 percent as against 21percent last year. Food and non-food under WPIwas noted as 6.7 percent and 13.3 percent duringcurrent period whereas it was recorded to be 23.5percent and 19.9 percent during the same periodlast year. The following table and graph representthe trends in the CPI, WPI and SPI.Table:7.5 Rate of Inflation on the basis of various price indices(Average percent)Items 2010-11(Jul-Apr) 2011-12(Jul-Apr)A Consumer Price Index 13.8 10.8Food 18.8 11.1Non-Food 10.8 10.7B Wholesale Price Index 21.0 11.2Food 23.5 6.7Non-Food 19.9 13.3C Sensitive Price Indicator 18.1 8.5Fig-7.2: CPI (Food, Non-food), WPI (Food, Non-food) and SPI (Percent)Sensitive Price IndicatorNon-FoodFoodWholesale Price IndexNon-FoodFoodConsumer Price Index2011-12(Jul-Apr)2010-11(Jul-Apr)6.78.511.210.710.811.110.813.313.818.118.819.921.023.50.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0CPI inflation during the period (Jul-Apr) 2011-12increased by 10.8 percent on average and that offood increased by 11.1 percent. The food groupwith 34.8 percent weight in the CPI basket has aconsiderable effect on overall prices. A slightvariation in food prices has a large impact oninflation (Table 7.6).102
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SOCIAL INDICATORS2001-02 2002-03 20
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Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12Tab
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Special SectionPakistan: Flood Impa
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Pakistan: Flood Impact AssessmentHe
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Pakistan: Flood Impact AssessmentTa
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district roads (including farm-to-m
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Pakistan: Flood Impact AssessmentAf
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System. The main canals are the Pat
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Chapter 2AgricultureThe agriculture
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Agricultureagriculture. Livestock c
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AgricultureTable 2.6: Area, Product
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Agricultureb) Minor Cropsi) Oilseed
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During July-March, 2011-12 about 36
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It is expected about Rs. 30.00 bill
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AgricultureBox-1Credit Disbursement
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AgricultureTable:2.20 Estimated Liv
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AgriculturePoultry Development poli
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Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12GDP
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Chapter 3Manufacturing and Mining3.
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Manufacturing and MiningManufacturi
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Manufacturing and MiningBox-2LSM Da
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(i) Cotton Spinning SectorThe spinn
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Manufacturing and Miningyear. Howev
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Manufacturing and MiningEast. Expor
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Health and NutritionHealth Expendit
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achieved in the case of BHUs and 95
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Health and Nutritionglobal initiati
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Health and Nutritiontook necessary
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Chapter 12Population Labour Force a
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Age Composition of PopulationThe ag
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Population, Labour Force and Employ
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Table-12.16: Unemployed - Pakistan
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Chapter 14EnergyEnergy is considere
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EnergyStock Issue• Recovery of re
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Energy14.1 Energy ConsumptionPakist
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Energyto 21.4 percent last year. Th
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Energy14.2-d CoalPakistan has huge
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tariff increases of 6%, 12% and 6%
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Energy14.3-b Petroleum ProductsPetr
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Energybecome a popular domestic fue
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EnergyAlso Laraib Energy Limited (
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EnergyTable 14.14: Oil and Gas Disc
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Energy14.5 Performance of Power Sec
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Energytrend of hydro-thermal energy
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Energy14.5-c Private Power and Infr
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Energy Proposal for undertaking a f
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Chapter 15Social Safety NetsBackgro
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Social Safety NetsBox-1Poverty Alle
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Social Safety NetsTable 15.4: Perce
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Social Safety Netsenterprise develo
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Social Safety Netsdignity of househ
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period of last year. Furthermore, i
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Social Safety Netsand ensure growth
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