47. Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12 - Consultancy Services in ...

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InflationRegional PricesPrices of essential consumer items prevailing on10 th May, 2012 in Pakistan as compared withneighboring countries including India, Bangladesh,Sri Lanka, Iran and Afghanistan indicate thatprices of rice, beef, chicken (farm), sugar and redchilies were lower in Pakistan than in the otherregional countries. Prices of 08 items i.e. ricebasmati, beef, mutton, chicken (farm), sugar,tomatoes, red chilies and garlic are lower inPakistan as compared to India.Table 7.14: Prices of Selected Essential Items in Neighboring CountriesValue in Pak RupeesItems Unit Islamabad New Delhi Dhaka Colombo Tehran Kabul10/5/2012 10/5/2012 2/5/2012 2/5/2012 15/4/2012 12/4/2012Wheat Kg 27.8 27.2 39.1 -- -- 54.0Wheat Flour Kg 30.3 28.9 38.0 85.0 -- 58.0Rice Basmati Kg 100.1 160.5 150.7 127.5 216.8 135.0Masoor Pulse Kg 118.1 91.8 111.6 106.2 222.2 220.0Moong Pulse Kg 131.9 119.0 122.8 106.2 259.2 202.0Mash Pulse Kg 156.9 143.5 122.8 106.2 -- 276.0Gram Pulse Kg 113.8 88.4 78.1 106.2 222.2 127.0Beef Kg 280.0 283.0 290.2 368.3 1133.3 496.0Mutton Kg 556.9 567.0 502.3 708.2 1851.6 652.0Chicken Farm Kg 148.9 321.0 178.6 311.6* 318.5 309.0Eggs Dozn 85.1 83.0 117.2 76.4 171.8 127.0Sugar Kg 58.8 59.5 69.2 87.1 133.3 92.0Veg. Ghee (loose) Kg 206.0 147.9 468.9 -- -- 190.0Edible Oil(Dalda) Ltr 206.0 183.6 145.1 208.9 244.4 181.0Potato Kg 35.8 28.9 22.3 70.8 459.2 54.0Onion Kg 36.9 23.8 20.1 63.7 459.6 54.0Tomato Kg 36.3 37.4 16.7 56.7 162.9 127.0Red Chilies Kg 321.3 378.0 -- -- 888.8 398.0Garlic Kg 126.3 227.0 78.1 141.6 259.2 147.0Tea Kg 710.6 544.0 362.8 424.9 -- 469.0Source: Planning & Development Division-- Not available, * : Price of chicken is without featherPrice Stabilization MeasuresThe government is focused to restrict inflation to12 percent during the current fiscal year 2012.Different policy measures have been taken to dealwith food and fuel price hikes and to contain theinflation through monetary policy, augmentingsupply, streamlining distribution and interventionsto stimulate productivity.Given that the average inflation for (Jul-Apr)2011-12 was 10.84 percent and in view of theinternational food and fuel price trend thegovernment is keeping a close watch on themovement of price trend through weekly ECC andCabinet Meetings. In addition to the above, theNational Price Monitoring Committee (NPMC)also monitors the prices of essential commoditiesin consultation with the Provincial governmentsand the concerned Federal Ministries/ Divisionsand Organizations. The NPMC has so far heldtwelve meetings to monitor the price and supplysituation. The SBP controls inflation through thepolicy rate under the monetary policy. The recentinflationary pressure has necessitated a tightmonetary policy to suppress aggregate demand.The State Bank of Pakistan continued to keepmoney supply on a tight leash. To maintain fiscaldiscipline, the government has also focused onprudent expenditure management. Expendituresare being contained through austerity measures andadministrative mechanisms. The Senate StandingCommittee on Finance Revenue, EconomicAffairs, Statistics and Planning Division has109
Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12recently approved the report of the sub committeeon the control of price of essential commoditieswhich is primarily aimed at finding ways andmeans to control prices.with direct damages amounting to 1.3 percent ofGDP and indirect losses of 0.2 percent of GDP.The floods remained confined to Sindh andBalochistan, with almost 96 percent of the damageoccurred in Sindh. The flood in terms of theirFlood Impacteconomic impact, especially in Sindh was moreSevere monsoon rains have triggered floods indevastating and caused an estimated damage of RsSouthern Pakistan of unprecedented scale, both in311 billion (6.1 percent of provincial GDP) in theterms of volume and spatial coverage. Accordingprovince. The floods impacted the richer districtsto report of ADB, it is estimated thaton the left bank of Indus, the agricultural heartlandapproximately 9.6 million people have beenof the province. The damage just in agriculture isaffected in Sindh and Balochistan as a result of theestimated to be Rs. 151 billion. On the other hand,floods. The overall damage from 2011 floods isdamages in Balochistan in 2011, are Rs. 12 billion,estimated at Rs 324.5 billion (1.6 percent of GDP),(1.4 percent of provincial GDP).Table 7.15: 2011 Kharif Area Affected by FloodCrop AreaArea Damaged (000 Ha)Province Damaged(000‟ ha)Cotton Rice Sugarcane Maize Vegetables Fruit OtherBalochistan 21.42 1.29 14.30 - - 1.78 0.17 3.88Sindh 859.61 494.94 163.85 88.40 - 99.24 13.19 -Total 881.03 496.22 178.14 88.40 - 101.03 13.36 3.88The floods have had a large and direct impact onthe Kharif cropping season. It has been estimatedby the World Bank and Asian Development Bank,that about 10 percent (142,434 ha) of the affectedKharif crop area will not be available forcultivation in Rabi and 5 percent in the Kharif2012. The main Rabi crop in Pakistan is wheatwhich is grown on some 8.5 million ha. In Sindh95 percent of the land was allocated to wheat inRabi 2010. There is a high possibility that wheatplanting in Sindh may face substantial constraints,mainly due to fact that the flood waters have notfully receded. In Balochistan, water have recededexcept for some low lying areas and, provided thenecessary support system for land clearing andinput supplies are put in place for the plantingseason, wheat planting may not be substantiallyaffected. However, damage to watercourses andtube wells, which are a critical source ofsupplementary water, may affect yields. Anotherfactor that may contribute to decrease in the areaunder wheat will be the delayed start of sugarcanecrushing but a recovery in the gap may be filled bythe early clearing of the damaged cotton areas.SUPARCO estimates 0.5 million tons loss ofwheat production in Sindh due to non availabilityof land. These damages of crops may affect thesupply position and as a result prices may rise. Theincrease in wheat procurement prices from Rs. 950per maund to Rs. 1,050 per maund may add toprice increase.Future OutlookThe government is focusing on restricting inflationto 12 percent during the current fiscal year 2011-12. The current trend of inflation reported duringthe first 10 months Jul-Apr 2011-12 suggests thatinflation has been stabilized on account ofpursuing tight monetary policy and declining trendin global commodity prices. Inflation is likely tofurther decelerate gradually over the next fewmonths, as better crops production and bettermanagement of supply chain may bring pricestability in the country. The decline in inflationmay continue further by falling global commodityprices and steps towards fiscal consolidation tocontain inflation. However, long term solutions lieincrease in agricultural investment; strong marketintegration; and, regional cooperation to securefood supplies for the country’s growingpopulation.110
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Highlights of the Pakistan Economic
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SOCIAL INDICATORS2001-02 2002-03 20
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Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12Tab
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Special SectionPakistan: Flood Impa
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Pakistan: Flood Impact AssessmentHe
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Pakistan: Flood Impact AssessmentTa
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district roads (including farm-to-m
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Pakistan: Flood Impact AssessmentAf
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System. The main canals are the Pat
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Chapter 2AgricultureThe agriculture
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Agricultureagriculture. Livestock c
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AgricultureTable 2.6: Area, Product
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Agricultureb) Minor Cropsi) Oilseed
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During July-March, 2011-12 about 36
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It is expected about Rs. 30.00 bill
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AgricultureBox-1Credit Disbursement
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AgricultureTable:2.20 Estimated Liv
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AgriculturePoultry Development poli
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AgricultureIn this connection, two
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Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12GDP
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Chapter 3Manufacturing and Mining3.
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Manufacturing and MiningManufacturi
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Manufacturing and MiningBox-2LSM Da
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(i) Cotton Spinning SectorThe spinn
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Manufacturing and Miningyear. Howev
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Manufacturing and MiningEast. Expor
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Manufacturing and Miningsubstitute
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Page 150 and 151: Chapter 7InflationThe global econom
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Chapter 12Population Labour Force a
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Age Composition of PopulationThe ag
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Population, Labour Force and Employ
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Table-12.16: Unemployed - Pakistan
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Chapter 14EnergyEnergy is considere
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EnergyStock Issue• Recovery of re
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Energy14.1 Energy ConsumptionPakist
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Energyto 21.4 percent last year. Th
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Energy14.2-d CoalPakistan has huge
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tariff increases of 6%, 12% and 6%
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Energy14.3-b Petroleum ProductsPetr
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Energybecome a popular domestic fue
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EnergyAlso Laraib Energy Limited (
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EnergyTable 14.14: Oil and Gas Disc
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Energy14.5 Performance of Power Sec
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Energytrend of hydro-thermal energy
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Energy14.5-c Private Power and Infr
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Energy Proposal for undertaking a f
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Chapter 15Social Safety NetsBackgro
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Social Safety NetsBox-1Poverty Alle
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Social Safety NetsTable 15.4: Perce
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Social Safety Netsenterprise develo
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Social Safety Netsdignity of househ
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period of last year. Furthermore, i
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Social Safety Netsand ensure growth
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