POLLINATORS POLLINATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

THE ASSESSMENT REPORT ON POLLINATORS, POLLINATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION
FIGURE 3:
The four-box model for the qualitative communication of confidence. Confidence increases towards the top-right corner as
suggested by the increasing strength of shading. Source: modified from Moss and Schneider (2000). 20
High
High
Established
but incomplete
Well
established
Level of agreement
Certainty scale
Inconclusive
Unresolved
XIV
Low
Low
PREFACE
Low
Quantity and
quality of
the evidence
Robust
The summary terms to describe the evidence are:
Well established: comprehensive meta-analysis 19
or other synthesis or multiple independent studies that
agree.
Unresolved: multiple independent studies exist but
conclusions do not agree.
Inconclusive: limited evidence, recognising major
knowledge gaps
Established but incomplete: general agreement
although only a limited number of studies exist but no
comprehensive synthesis and, or the studies that exist
imprecisely address the question.
20
19. A statistical method for combining results from different studies
which aims to identify patterns among study results, sources of
disagreement among those results, or other relationships that may
come to light in the context of multiple studies.
20. Moss R.H. and Schneider S.H. (2000) “Uncertainties in the IPCC TAR:
Recommendations to lead authors for more consistent assessment and
reporting”, Guidance Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues of the Third
Assessment Report of the IPCC [eds. R. Pachauri, T. Taniguchi and K.
Tanaka], World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, pp. 33-51.].