Zirve Eki - ISTANBUL REstate

16-17 Haziran 2010
Kat›l›mc› Sorusu: My name is Kemal fiahin. I am from ‹flbank. I
have two questions for you. My first question is for Mr. Kubak. You
mentioned in the first part about attractive return but you didn't name
it. If you were investing nowadays in Turkey, what would be your
attractive return or yield? And my second question is for all of you
actually. You talked mostly about investment in Istanbul today. But
if you were investing for a summer hotel, let's say, in Antalya, nowadays,
when you are making risk evaluation, what would be your first three
most important risks associated for investing in Antalya? Thank you.
Theodor Kubak: If I may start with the first question, attractive
yields, I think depends on the product, depends on the location,
depends on the time variable, and if you look at the yields, how the
develop of the last few months, then they certainly has yield compression
also in Istanbul, in all asset classes, as a matter of fact. The same is
true for hotels, however due to the lack of transactions in the market,
it is very difficult to name. I think best would be to say that we would
see the hotels being round about 100 basis points above the office
markets in terms of yields. And if this would give some kind of reply
in terms of our expectations, then I hope I have been helpful. In terms
of resorts, Union Investment has taken the decision not to invest into
resorts simply because of the somewhat volatile cash flows. And we
would like to see a stable income throughout the yields. One could
argue that also city hotel has a volatile cash flow but to a lesser degree.
So therefore the hotels we are holding in Berlin, Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels
and so forth, and also the airport locations. We have 3 airport hotels which
are doing exceptionally well.
Ömer ‹svan: Well, I mean typical institutional investors don't understand
these resorts very well. So it is very normal for him to say that. That is true.
I mean, it needs a lot more knowledge of the sector than being just an
institutional investor, because it is essentially a volatile market. But your
question about what would be the three critical success factors in somewhere
Well, I only mentioned a few of these so called secondary cities.
There are many more. And Claudia Glück of hotel, PKF Hotelexperts
in Vienna, she will introduce these cities to you now. And you
should not leave the room all; stay here...because we will then
continue with another interesting round of panelists to give a
few more details of these cities. I think the name tags are prepared.
Gayrimenkul Zirvesi 10
like Antalya. Risk or success, well, I suppose they are contrary to each other,
but when he said Antalya, to me, one of the real risk factors is the lack of
differentiation. We have seen amazing value to yield ratios in Antalya much
better than any city in Turkey, I mean, including Istanbul. So it can happen,
but one of the risks is lack of differentiation because the whole market is
branded as being some mode of a uniform market segment, a sort of the
mid market, pretty much Euro, CIS dominated tour operator market, with
a product differentiation very narrow spread on either side. So if I was
investing today, I would be very weary to throw just another one into the
pot. And unfortunately even if you differentiate, perhaps the entire market
is so defined that the market downturns would pull you down as well,
whether you have differentiated or not. So that is the main risk factor right
now. You are basically throwing it into a pot and however you
differentiate, that is what it is. So it is very difficult to be different in
that kind of a market. Number two is of course your financing risks
as you know, leisure is not very easily financed. And third is to find
your land. Unless you are getting a lease, coastal attractive land is
extremely expensive these days. So it is a very high risk factor as well
for you.
Tavit Köletavito¤lu: Can I add something? The first three risks in
Antalya, if I would be in Antalya, the first risk is market dependency.
This is very important. In Antalya, there is a very high market dependency.
Two, three, if I may say two major market. That is why that dependency
is making some sort of a risk for an investment. The second is relatively
low prices. Not actually maybe but the image-wise this prices are
conservatively low. And third one is the product, all inclusive product.
If not property priced, all inclusive product is a big risk, but if properly
priced it is not a risk. It is an advantage. But these are three basic risks.
Jakob Forstnig
Have your question been sufficiently answered? Thanks. Any more
questions from the audience??
Oturum Baflkan› : Andreas Martin
I can feel there are more questions but we are a little bit over the time already. If I may ask you, will you be available for further
questions after this discussion? And I would like to thank Jakob, and the panelists, especially Bettina Graef for this interesting
round. I would like to just stop it here and I think Antalya was the keyword because we would like to talk a little bit more
about secondary cities. Thank you very much and as I said, I am sure the panelists will be available for questions here in the
room or at the lounge later on. Thank you. Well, Antalya is one of those cities you probably all know. It is in the Mediterranean
region. Izmir is another city which internationally is known. But what about Adana, two million inhabitants? Mersin, 1.6
million inhabitants. We are here in Istanbul which is the Marmara region and we have heard about Istanbul a lot already
but for those of you not from Turkey, did you know that Bursa has more than 2.5 million inhabitants? The Turkish automotive
industry is based in Bursa. And the international hotel brands, I am sure Claudia will just let us know. Ankara is the capital,
in the Anatolian region but have you heard, you might have heard of Diyarbak›r? Please the panelist can already join me
here. Diyarbak›r, Gaziantep, more than 1.5 million inhabitants, both cities. And a region which is probably the region which
is not explored, it is the Black Sea region with Samsun being the major harbor and more than 1.2 million inhabitants.
And if I may ask those of you who would like to discuss further
question about financing, just leave the room or stay in and
discuss your questions in 45 minutes. We just would like to
continue now. Claudia can already start with her presentation
of the secondary cities in Turkey.
GYODER 179