Zirve Eki - ISTANBUL REstate

15 Haziran 2010
Gayrimenkul Zirvesi 10
Oturum Baflkan› : M. Emre Çaml›bel
Emre Çaml›bel: Biz teflekkür ederiz say›n baflkan. Evet, bir sonraki konuflmac›m›z Prof. Peter Droege. Kendisi 30 y›ld›r
tasar›m ve planlama üzerine konularda çal›flmalar yap›yor, faaliyet gösteriyor. A¤›rl›kl› olarak flehircilik ve mimarinin
enerji ile etkileflimine konsantre oldu. Bu konuda say›s›z kitab›, ödülleri, çal›flmalar›, yay›mlar› var. Özellikle de flehirlerin
yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar›ndan ne derece yararlanabilece¤i üzerine çal›flmalar yap›yor. Bize gelecekteki flehirlerin
%100 yenilenebilir enerjiden kaynaklanma ihtimalinden bahsederse seviniriz. Buyurun.
Prof. Dr. Peter Droege
Mimar
Well, thank you very much. It is a wonderful honor to be here
at this moment and our visions of the future and this evening
is really there to set a kind of a stage for developers and people
engaged in development process to anticipate aspects of the
future and begin to put together vision of emerging markets,
vision of emerging development opportunities. So the wonderful
vision of Seferihisar, the slow city movement, the whole Olympic
vision, the wonderful basket of projects around the world that
Prof. Frederic Schwartz was showing us and this great stage
that Roy Strickland has given us by showing us other
mechanisms. Continent has been developed and the 19th,
20th century and asking the question what about Turkey?
Well, what about Turkey? The key to finding a wonderful
future for Turkey but also for the United States, for Greece,
for really all other countries in the world is to focus on the
6000 megatons gorilla in the room. And that 6000 megatons
gorilla in the room is something we have to talk about for
fifteen minutes. And you wouldn't believe how visible that
gorilla is if you looked at Istanbul. Istanbul is a city that is very
specific, very different from Athens. It is certainly very different
from Washington, very different from so and yet there is
something that is common to all the cities. Fundamental driver
of these cities are common characteristic of these cities. They
are fossil fuel creatures. 85% global commercial energy supplies
fossil fuel, coal, oil, gas. 95% of global transport that is
mechanized, air, road, rail, sea is oil-dependent. The cost of
development, fossil fuel development in health terms in China
60 billion US dollars annually. Europe is not doing much better,
it is 90 billion dollars. In Europe, we have a rising threat of
military conflict because of, what dependents on that, fossil
fuel that wouldn't have been a tragedy, a tragic arc between
New York and Baghdad if the Middle East produced bananas
instead of oil. Now this threat is not to be belittled because
that gorilla is rising and the fossil fuel consumption has risen
fivefold since 1950 and continues. And I argue it continues as
a driver of global urbanization. And you can find that out by
looking at Beijing. 30 odd years ago, pretty much the city of
Ch'ing Dynasty then, and see what happened in those 30
years. Now you think that maybe because of Deng Xiaoping
and opening the markets to the west, while think again, look
at Las Vegas, same timeframe ' 73 to 2000, 2006. And you
see that, around the world the majority of metropolitan cities
are skipped largely because of this has been driven by cheap
supply of fossil fuels and that is really behind the whole history
of urbanization of American continent that Roy Strickland
described so wonderfully. And there you have it. That is Roy
Strickland's slides mapped in fossil carbon emissions. Petroleum,
coal, natural gas, cements production to 1950. That is preworld
war II, the 1950 story of urban development. And this
is what happened afterwards. Further fivefold increase, further
fivefold blow out. And what are effected today embodying of,
to speak here, is this cultural fossil fuel depends on the
consumption rolling out in a way that has changed the chemistry
of the atmosphere, has changed it from 280 parts per million
of CO2 over a hundred thousand years peak to this year 390
parts per million. Now, this 390 parts per million has resulted
in a rapid, much more rapid and predicted increase in
temperatures since 2001, measured sea level rise and much
more rapid melting of the Arctic Sea Cap. And so we have a
post-Kyoto, Copenhagen disclose now but how we going to
get over that slight hurdle? How we tame that gorilla; and the
argument is that the industrial countries to collectively have to
come down by 80% in the carbon emissions per capita by
2050, in order to have a chance to limit these concentrations
GYODER 57