Zirve Eki - ISTANBUL REstate

58 GYODER
Gayrimenkul Zirvesi 10
to 450 parts per million or 2 degrees rise. Now there is
something terribly wrong with this negotiated position. Everyone
in the IPCC knows that. What is wrong with that is essentially
(a) 2 degrees is much, too much. We know that earlier 0.7
degrees, we triggered possibly irreversible changes. And even
if you believe that 0.7 degrees was not enough, you needed
2 degrees, well then 450 parts per million is far too much.
Because 450 parts per million concentration you have a more
than 40% chance to overshoot the 2% target. That means the
crime this was really, how to get to 280 maximum, or as James
Hanson argues, 350 parts per million, sounds good. The
problem is we are at 390 now. We have to extract carbon
from the atmosphere. We have to take it out, take hundreds
of years, but that is the only hope to begin to envision a future
that has a long term stabilizing of the climate situation. Now
that also means that 2050 is much too long a horizon. It is
irresponsible to talk about it because most of us are not going
to be around in 2050. The new target is at 2020 to 2030. It
also means that the new target is beginning to be, trying to
envision scenarios of moving away from the fossil fuel age
and doing it rather quickly. The European Union is proposing
that by 2019, all new houses and all new apartments have to
supply their own renewable energy sources. The efficient
supply their own sources including renovations. Now this is
the one side of the gorilla. The other side is of course, the oil
peak; a lot of us are worried about the oil peak. If we worried
about oil peaking meaning the supply being less than the
demand, well you can relax. The Germans believe that the oil
peak is ready took place in 2006, 2007. We are now in the
declining productivity that will eventually historically match
the post-peak profile of all countries that I have listed here,
that are ready after the peak, 3% decline annually. And if you
think that is already quite frightening, what's even more
frightening is that the Hubbert curve, the peak of curve, the
bell curve is actually another bell curve if you consider that in
1930, it took one barrel of oil to produce to drill for a hundred
15 Haziran 2010
barrel of oils. And in 2000, you only receive 11 barrels of oil
other than that one barrel of energy input. That means the
sources becoming rare and rare,s takes more and more energy
to take the oil out of the ground and so what we get to is a
decline and net oil availability that models more shark fin rather
than a bell curve. So the drop can be much more dramatically
than it is envisioned. So the only conceivable future in terms
energy profile for the civilized, for any vision of a civilized future
is to dramatic reduce, reduction in consumption, dramatic
increase of efficiency, that means a reduction by current energy
requirements to, by 50% to 60% by 2050, and a rapid ramping
of renewable energy and a rapid phasing out of oil, gas and
coal. But also, a beginning to giving up is on this impossible
19th and early 20th century dream of nuclear power, having
anything to do with a possible saving here. Now there is a
nuclear reactor out there. This is 150 million kilometers from
Istanbul Airport. It takes "Türk Hava Yollar›" thirty years to get
there. That is not because of the airlines, that is just that far
away. Yet the sun is able to heat the atmosphere and the earth
by 300 degrees every day. So it is more enough energy around.
The sun is driving so much wind energy and around globe that
if we could tap only the most efficient positions, we could
supply the current electricity demand five to seven times over.
Europeans already they mapped the European continent in
biomass, geothermal, wind energy, hydro power sources, solar
energy and figured out that there is more than 1.2 to 1.4 times
of current energy demand residing in the capacity of renewables
around the continent. So, we know how to do it legislatively.
Feed-in-tariffs are much more effective than certification trading.
This is a comparison of Germany and in green and United
Kingdom in yellow and see the rapid uptake of wind power in
Germany, almost no uptake in the UK even though England
has a lot more wind power than Germany. The difference is
the model, the support model for renewables that also maps
itself in much cheaper renewable energy, seven cents, particularly
what in Germany, twice that in the UK. This is an indication of
the job explosion that Germany experience, jobs in renewable
energy, in the PV domain and the current craze in urban and
regional development in Germany is a hundred percent
renewable energy autonomy. These are regions in Germany
already either reached a 100% or declared a goal of energy
independence from the coal fired grid. I give just one example
of a region in Spain which is climatically similar to Turkey,
Navarro. It has been a rather poor region in the north of Spain
and used a 150 year old infrastructure of hydro power to invest
in wind power. And it helped in 2007 that in Spain wind power
began to outstrip the capacity of nuclear power in terms of
electricity production. So, Navarro began to invest in bio-fuel
and all kinds of wonderful innovations like finding small patches
of a cultural land that could not be used and building solar
gardens. The solar gardens are now retirement investments for
Spaniards who can buy yourself one of these panels for 50,000
euros and you get guaranteed 8% dividend for the next 25
years. Now, show me the stock market product that gives that
sort of a return. Now we can actually also rely on the German