Zirve Eki - ISTANBUL REstate

15 Haziran 2010
And this is an area we are working on that we think will be
one of the most interesting things if we can solve this problem
that is floating around in the energy world today. I am going
to use a very simple example for you to illustrate this point.
Let's look at regular commercial light bulbs, incandescent bulbs
versus fluorescent bulbs. Everybody knows fluorescent bulbs
are good things. Well, the wattage, is a 100 watts in
incandescent, it is 25 watts in a fluorescent bulb. The lumens
which is the amount of output, the light output is the same
for those two light bulbs. The life of the incandescent bulb is
a 1000 hours, for a fluorescent bulb it is 10.000 hours. But
the bulb cost is much cheaper. Its 50 cents for the incandescent
bulb here, 6 dollars and 97 cents for the fluorescent bulb. For
a thousand hours of operation, the cost is 10 dollars for the
incandescent bulb, it is 2.50 for the fluorescent bulb. And then
the energy cost per year assuming you use that light bulb for
six hours a day, is 21 dollars versus 6 dollars. So that is 10
dollars versus 2.50. So the actual savings per year, excuse me,
the cost is, 21.90 versus 5.47. So the point is this: if I switch
from an incandescent bulb to a fluorescent bulb, it is a 254%
return on investment. So, in other words, the cost of paying
more for the fluorescent bulb over the incandescent bulb given
its energy consumption and its life span is a 254% payback.
And 114 day payback in terms of dollars. So this just gives you
an illustration of the longer that I use the light, if I used it 12
hours a day, I get a much shorter payback period and the
return of investment is a lot higher. We all know that, the
longer we use the lights; the more efficient they are going to
be in terms of the savings. But here is the question. I invest
6.47 because I am paying that amount for the fluorescent bulb
and that gets me a savings of 15.43 per year which is the 254
ROI. What would cause that cash float to not happen? That
is the key to this analysis. We are trying to save what is the
volatility of an energy savings cash flow, sounds kind of financy
and it is. But just step through and it is very very simple logic.
What would cause that not to be there? Well, there is really
three things that can happen. The cost of the bulb is wrong.
Gayrimenkul Zirvesi 10
So maybe it is more expensive or less expensive, don't know,
what happens to the price of light bulbs over time. The second
is maybe the efficiency of the bulb is wrong. The engineers at
Philips and Siemens tell me it's 68% efficient or 90% efficient.
Maybe they are wrong. And then the third is energy cost. And
we know what we think happens long run with energy cost,
don't we? Do they go which way? Do they go up? How many
years do you think energy cost go up? See nobody is awake.
It's a test, how many if you think go down? Ok. So. We think
that they go up. Let's look at some of the numbers here. The
cost of the bulb. So this is what the price of fluorescent light
bulbs have done over the last three years. They have gone from
7 dollars to 6 dollars and 87 cents. So we have seen a decline
in the price of light bulbs. So that would mean that I am going
to get the savings because the light bulb prices don't go up.
They go down. Everybody believe that one? I think so, it sounds
pretty reasonable. What about the efficiency of the bulb? Well,
incandescent bulbs last for a 1000 hours and they put up 17.5
luminescence per watt. CFL's which are fluorescents last 10.000
put up 7. LED's last 60.000 hours and put up 2.92. The point
here is technology has created the situation where light bulbs
are getting more efficient. So that means that is not going to
get in the way either. And then the third thing is simply to say
what about the price of the energy? So this is the cost of
electricity on average in the US. And if you ask me that line
looks like, that yellow line looks like it goes up. Don't have to
be a statistician to understand that one. And then we just draw
that kind of bluish line as a trend. So the long run trend in the
US for electricity prices is going up. So if prices are going up,
what does that mean? My energy savings will get bigger, not
smaller. So looks to me like three of the things I just sourced
to you are going to get fairly certain over time. So let's just
start with what energy is done up through 2010. Let's assume
that energy prices do continue to go up. The green line
represents the savings per year that I would get, by investing
in that new technology of a light bulb. So the question becomes
what could cause that not to be there? The only thing that
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