Working and ageing - Cedefop - Europa
Working and ageing - Cedefop - Europa
Working and ageing - Cedefop - Europa
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
44<br />
<strong>Working</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>ageing</strong><br />
Guidance <strong>and</strong> counselling for mature learners<br />
choices, careers <strong>and</strong> life cycles, immigration, see for example, Bovenberg,<br />
2008; Schmid, 2002). These developments apply to all EU Member States.<br />
Demographic development in Europe is also of special interest in our context.<br />
We will first give an overview of the main demographic changes. Then we will<br />
have a look at the changing world of work in enterprises <strong>and</strong> the<br />
consequences for future employment of older employees.<br />
3.2. Demographic trends <strong>and</strong> shortage of<br />
skilled employees<br />
The EU demographic situation is characterised by diversity. Differences exist<br />
in the fertility rate, life expectancy, net migration <strong>and</strong> labour participation rates.<br />
The European statistical office (Eurostat) regularly delivers projections for<br />
development of the population <strong>and</strong> potential labour force by age (Eurostat,<br />
2010). Such projections provide important data on future labour-market<br />
developments <strong>and</strong> can support evaluation of passive <strong>and</strong> active labour-market<br />
policies. The latest projections ( 9 ) cover the period 2008-61. Population<br />
projections involve making internationally comparable population estimates<br />
<strong>and</strong> producing the most plausible figures for future years. In general, key<br />
assumptions are made with respect to mortality, fertility <strong>and</strong> migration by<br />
gender <strong>and</strong> age. In discussing population trends, two aspects are important:<br />
(a) population trends are relatively autonomous <strong>and</strong> are exogenous<br />
influences upon a countryʼs social system <strong>and</strong> labour market;<br />
(b) population trends are gradual <strong>and</strong> long lasting. Changes in the central<br />
components of population development – birth rate, life expectancy of the<br />
population, <strong>and</strong> even migration – influence the structure of the population<br />
for many decades.<br />
The data show that, especially the German, population <strong>and</strong> also the potential<br />
working population (persons in the age group 20-64 years) will decline<br />
dramatically between 2008 <strong>and</strong> 2030. Figure 3.1 shows the indexed trend of<br />
the share of the potential working population ( 10 ) in the age group 55-64 years<br />
to the total potential working population for Germany <strong>and</strong> for the average of<br />
EU-27. This figure reveals the demographic situation most European countries<br />
will face in the next decades.<br />
( 9 ) Results are available at the Eurostat database (Europop2008): http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/<br />
portal/page/portal/population/data/database [16.6.2011].<br />
( 10 ) The concept of the potential labour force includes employed persons <strong>and</strong> the registered unemployed<br />
as well as ʻhiddenʼ unemployment.