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Dictionary of Evidence-based Medicine.pdf

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142 <strong>Dictionary</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Evidence</strong>-<strong>based</strong> <strong>Medicine</strong><br />

Risk can also be expressed as a conditional probability. For example, the<br />

risk <strong>of</strong> cervical cancer (CC) in women receiving unopposed hormonal<br />

replacement therapy (HRT) can be written as P(CC|HRT) = p where p is the<br />

incidence <strong>of</strong> CC in this group <strong>of</strong> patients.<br />

Risk can be expressed in relative terms, for example risk <strong>of</strong> developing a<br />

particular adverse event among individuals exposed to a drug compared<br />

to those not exposed. If the risk (or incidence) <strong>of</strong> the event in those exposed<br />

is Re and that in the non-exposed group is Ro, the ratio (Re:Ro) is known<br />

as the risk ratio or relative risk (RR).<br />

Suppose that there are n individuals in a comparative trial <strong>of</strong> two<br />

treatments A and B and that the outcomes with respect to an adverse event<br />

are as shown in Table 7 with all the tabular entries as integers.<br />

Table 7 Calculation <strong>of</strong> relative risk from data in a contingency table<br />

Treatment A Treatment B Total<br />

Adverse event present a c a+c<br />

Adverse event absent b d b+d<br />

Total a+b c+d a+b+c+d = n<br />

The relative risk (RR) or risk ratio <strong>of</strong> the event occurring with treatment A<br />

relative to B is given by:<br />

An RR value <strong>of</strong> 5 means that the event is five times more likely to occur in<br />

the exposed group than in the non-exposed group. In pharmacoepidemiological<br />

studies investigating association between an adverse reaction<br />

and a drug, for example, the larger the RR value, the stronger the association.<br />

Values close to unity suggest no relationship and negative values<br />

suggest a negative or protective effect (e.g. intake <strong>of</strong> foods high in antioxidant<br />

compounds and cardiovascular disease). RR can only be calculated in<br />

a cohort or experimental study.<br />

The risk difference (RD) or risk reduction is given by:<br />

(see under Risk reduction).

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