Dictionary of Evidence-based Medicine.pdf
Dictionary of Evidence-based Medicine.pdf
Dictionary of Evidence-based Medicine.pdf
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142 <strong>Dictionary</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Evidence</strong>-<strong>based</strong> <strong>Medicine</strong><br />
Risk can also be expressed as a conditional probability. For example, the<br />
risk <strong>of</strong> cervical cancer (CC) in women receiving unopposed hormonal<br />
replacement therapy (HRT) can be written as P(CC|HRT) = p where p is the<br />
incidence <strong>of</strong> CC in this group <strong>of</strong> patients.<br />
Risk can be expressed in relative terms, for example risk <strong>of</strong> developing a<br />
particular adverse event among individuals exposed to a drug compared<br />
to those not exposed. If the risk (or incidence) <strong>of</strong> the event in those exposed<br />
is Re and that in the non-exposed group is Ro, the ratio (Re:Ro) is known<br />
as the risk ratio or relative risk (RR).<br />
Suppose that there are n individuals in a comparative trial <strong>of</strong> two<br />
treatments A and B and that the outcomes with respect to an adverse event<br />
are as shown in Table 7 with all the tabular entries as integers.<br />
Table 7 Calculation <strong>of</strong> relative risk from data in a contingency table<br />
Treatment A Treatment B Total<br />
Adverse event present a c a+c<br />
Adverse event absent b d b+d<br />
Total a+b c+d a+b+c+d = n<br />
The relative risk (RR) or risk ratio <strong>of</strong> the event occurring with treatment A<br />
relative to B is given by:<br />
An RR value <strong>of</strong> 5 means that the event is five times more likely to occur in<br />
the exposed group than in the non-exposed group. In pharmacoepidemiological<br />
studies investigating association between an adverse reaction<br />
and a drug, for example, the larger the RR value, the stronger the association.<br />
Values close to unity suggest no relationship and negative values<br />
suggest a negative or protective effect (e.g. intake <strong>of</strong> foods high in antioxidant<br />
compounds and cardiovascular disease). RR can only be calculated in<br />
a cohort or experimental study.<br />
The risk difference (RD) or risk reduction is given by:<br />
(see under Risk reduction).