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Dictionary of Evidence-based Medicine.pdf

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66 <strong>Dictionary</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Evidence</strong>-<strong>based</strong> <strong>Medicine</strong><br />

for given geographical areas to care for patient groups <strong>of</strong> about 100 000 in<br />

size (DoH (1997) The new NHS. Cmd 3807. HMSO, London).<br />

Funnel plot<br />

This is a graphical method <strong>of</strong>ten used for identifying possible publication<br />

bias when undertaking a systematic overview. The effect measures are<br />

plotted against the corresponding sample sizes as exemplified in Figure 10.<br />

In the absence <strong>of</strong> publication bias, the points should be distributed in a<br />

roughly symmetric manner to outline the shape <strong>of</strong> an inverted funnel.<br />

Withholding publication <strong>of</strong> studies with small or no significant effects<br />

leads to truncation <strong>of</strong> the left side <strong>of</strong> the inverted funnel. Estimates <strong>of</strong> effect<br />

obtained by undertaking a meta-analysis <strong>of</strong> published studies will therefore<br />

tend to be too high. However, an asymmetric funnel plot does not<br />

necessarily indicate publication bias. It may be due to true heterogeneity or<br />

real differences in the effects between trials (Egger M, Smith GD, Schneider<br />

M, Minder C (1997) Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple graphical<br />

test. BMJ. 315: 629-34. Stuck AE, Rubenstein LZ, Wieland D (1998) Asymmetry<br />

detected in funnel plot was probably due to true heterogeneity. BMJ.<br />

316: 469).<br />

Figure 10 Funnel plot

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