Determinants <strong>of</strong> Risk: Exposure and VulnerabilityChapter 2Risk accumulation can be driven by underlying factors such as a declinein the regulatory services provided by ecosystems, inadequate watermanagement, land use changes, rural-urban migration, unplannedurban growth, the expansion <strong>of</strong> informal settlements in low-lying areas,and an underinvestment in drainage infrastructure. Development andgovernance processes that increase the marginalization <strong>of</strong> specificgroups, for example, through the reduction <strong>of</strong> access to health servicesor the exclusion from information and power – to name just a few – canalso severely increase the susceptibility <strong>of</strong> these groups and at the sametime erode societal response capacities. The classic example is disasterrisk in urban areas in many rapidly growing cities in developing countries(Pelling and Wisner, 2009b). In these areas, disaster risk is <strong>of</strong>ten veryunequally distributed, with the poor facing the highest risk, for instancebecause they live in the most hazard-prone parts <strong>of</strong> the city, <strong>of</strong>ten inunplanned dense settlements with a lack <strong>of</strong> public services; where lack<strong>of</strong> waste disposal may lead to blocking <strong>of</strong> drains and increases the risk<strong>of</strong> disease outbreaks when floods occur; with limited political influenceto ensure government interventions to reduce risk. The accumulation <strong>of</strong>disaster risk over time may be partly caused by a string <strong>of</strong> smallerdisasters due to continued exposure to small day-to-day risks in urbanareas (e.g., Pelling and Wisner, 2009a), aggravated by limited resourcesto cope and recover from disasters when they occur – creating a viciouscycle <strong>of</strong> poverty and disaster risk. Analysis <strong>of</strong> disaster loss data suggeststhat frequent low-intensity losses <strong>of</strong>ten highlight an accumulation <strong>of</strong> risks,which is then realized when an extreme hazard event occurs (UNISDR,2009a). Similar accumulation <strong>of</strong> risk may occur at larger scales in hazardpronestates, especially in the context <strong>of</strong> conflict and displacement (e.g.,UNDP, 2004).A context-based understanding <strong>of</strong> these risks is essential to identifyappropriate risk management strategies. This may include better collection<strong>of</strong> sub-national disaster data that allows visualization <strong>of</strong> complex patterns<strong>of</strong> local risk (UNDP, 2004), as well as locally owned processes <strong>of</strong> riskidentification and reduction. Bull-Kamanga et al. (2003) suggest thatone <strong>of</strong> the most effective methods to address urban disaster risk inAfrica is to support community processes among the most vulnerablegroups so they can identify risks and set priorities – both for communityaction and for action by external agencies (including local governments).Such local risk assessment processes also avoid the pitfalls <strong>of</strong> planningbased on dated maps used to plan and develop large physical constructionand facilities.Disaster risk is not an autonomous or externally generated circumstanceto which society reacts, adapts, or responds (as is the case with naturalphenomena or events per se), but rather the result <strong>of</strong> the interaction <strong>of</strong>society and the natural or built environment. Thus disasters are <strong>of</strong>tenthe product <strong>of</strong> parallel developments that sometimes reach a tippingpoint, where the cumulative effect <strong>of</strong> these parallel processes results indisaster (Dikau and Pohl, 2007; Birkmann, 2011b). After that point,recovery may be slowed by conflict between processes and goals <strong>of</strong>reconstruction (Colten et al., 2008). In addition, there is <strong>of</strong>ten strongpressure to restore the status quo as soon as possible after a disasterhas happened, even if that status quo means continued high levels <strong>of</strong>disaster risk. Sometimes, however, disasters themselves can be awindow <strong>of</strong> opportunity for addressing the determinants <strong>of</strong> disaster risk.With proactive risk assessment and reconstruction planning, moreappropriate solutions can be realized while restoring essential assetsand services during and after disasters (Susman et al., 1983, Renn,1992; Comfort et al., 1999; Vogel and O’Brien, 2004).ReferencesA digital library <strong>of</strong> non-journal-based literature cited in this chapter thatmay not be readily available to the public has been compiled as part <strong>of</strong>the <strong>IPCC</strong> review and drafting process, and can be accessed via either the<strong>IPCC</strong> Secretariat or <strong>IPCC</strong> Working Group II web sites.Abel, N., D. Cumming, and J. Anderies, 2006: Collapse and reorganization in socialecologicalsystems: Questions, some ideas, and policy implications. Ecology andSociety, 11(1), 17-42.Adam, B. and J. van Loon, 2000: Repositioning risk; the challenge for social theory.In: The Risk Society and Beyond [Adam, B., U. Beck, and J. van Loon (eds.)].SAGE Publications, London, UK, pp. 1-31.Adelekan, I.O., 2010: Vulnerability <strong>of</strong> poor urban coastal communities to flooding inLagos, Nigeria. Environment and Urbanization, 22, 433, doi:10.1177/0956247810380141.Adger, W.N., 1999: Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastalVietnam. World Development, 27(3), 249-269.Adger, W.N., 2000: Social and ecological resilience: are they related? Progress inHuman Geography, 24(3), 347-364.Adger, W.N., 2003: Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climatechange. Economic Geography, 79(4), 387-404.Adger, W.N., 2006: Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16, 268-281.Adger, W.N. (ed.), 2009: Adapting to <strong>Climate</strong> Change, Thresholds, Values,Governance. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.Adger, W.N. and N. Brooks, 2003: Does global environmental change causevulnerability to disaster? In: Natural Disasters and Development in aGlobalizing World [Pelling, M. (ed.)]. Routledge, London, UK, pp. 19-42.Adger, W.N., and P.M. Kelly, 1999: Social vulnerability to climate change and thearchitecture <strong>of</strong> entitlements. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for GlobalChange, 4, 253-266.Adger, W.N., N. Brooks, M. Kelly, S. Bentham, and S. Eriksen, 2004: New Indicators <strong>of</strong>Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity. Tyndall Centre for <strong>Climate</strong> ChangeResearch, Technical Report 7, University <strong>of</strong> East Anglia, Norwich, UK.Adger, W.N., N.W. Arnell, and E.L. Tompkins, 2005: Successful adaptation to climatechange across scales. Global Environmental Change, 15(2), 77-86.Afifi, T., 2011: Economic or environmental migration? The push factors in Niger.International Migration, 49(S1), e95-e124.Agrawala, S. and M.K. van Aalst, 2008: Adapting development co-operation toadapt to climate change. <strong>Climate</strong> Policy, 8, 183-193.Ahern, M., R.S. Kovats, P. Wilkinson, R. Few, and F. Matthies, 2005: Global healthimpacts <strong>of</strong> floods: epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiologic Reviews, 27,doi:10.1093/epirev/mxi004.Alexander, D.E., 1993: Natural Disasters, UCL Press Limited, London, UK.Alexander, D.E., 2000: Confronting Catastrophe. Terra Publishing, Harpenden, UK.Altman, I. and S. Low, 1992: Place Attachment. Plenum Press, New York, NY.Alwang, J., P.B. Siegel, and S.L. Jorgensen, 2001: Vulnerability: A View From DifferentDisciplines. Social Protection Discussion Paper Series, No. 115, World Bank,Washington, DC.96
Chapter 2Determinants <strong>of</strong> Risk: Exposure and VulnerabilityAmstadter, A.B., R. Acierno, L.K. Richardson, D.G. Kilpatrick, D.F. Gros, R.J. Johnson,M.T. Gaboury, L.T. Trinh, T.T. Lam, T.T. Nguyen, T. Tran, T.B. La, T.H. Tran, D.C. Tran,and G. Sandro, 2009: Post typhoon prevalence <strong>of</strong> posttraumatic stress disorder,major depressive disorder, panic disorder, and generalized anxiety disorder in aVietnamese sample. Journal <strong>of</strong> Traumatic Stress, 22(3), 180-188.Anderson, M.B. and P.J. Woodrow, 1989: Rising from the Ashes, DevelopmentStrategies in Times <strong>of</strong> Disaster. 1998 ed. Lynne Rienner, London, UK, 338 pp.Anderson, M.B. and P.J. Woodrow, 1991: Reducing vulnerability to drought andfamine: Developmental approaches to relief. Disasters, 15(1), 43-54.Aragon-Durand, F., 2007: Urbanisation and flood vulnerability in the peri-urbaninterface <strong>of</strong> Mexico City. Disasters, 31(4), 477-494 .Armitage, D., B. Fikret, and N. Doubleday (eds.), 2007: Adaptive Co-Management:Collaboration, Learning, and Multi-Level Governance. UBC Press, Vancouver,Canada, 160 pp.Arrow, K. and R. Lind, 1970: Uncertainty and the evaluation <strong>of</strong> public investmentdecisions. The American Economic Review, 60, 364-378.Auld, H. and D. MacIver, 2007: Changing Weather Patterns, Uncertainty AndInfrastructure <strong>Risks</strong>: Emerging Adaptation Requirements. Occasional Paper 9,Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada.Aysan, Y., 1993: Vulnerability assessment. In: Natural Disasters: Protecting VulnerableCommunities [Merriman, P.A. and C.W.A. Browitt (eds.)]. IDNDR-ThomasTelford, London, UK.Aysan, Y. and P. Oliver, 1987: Housing and Culture after Earthquakes. A guide forfuture policy making on housing in seismic areas. Oxford Polytechnic for theOverseas Development Administration (ODA) <strong>of</strong> the UK Government, Oxford,UK.Balbus, J.M. and C. Malina, 2009: Identifying vulnerable subpopulations for climatechange health effects in the United States. Journal <strong>of</strong> Occupational andEnvironmental Medicine, 51, 33-37.Bank<strong>of</strong>f, G., 2004: The Historical Geography <strong>of</strong> Disaster: ‘Vulnerability’ and ‘LocalKnowledge’ in Western Discourse. Earthscan, London, UK.Barnett, J., 2001: Adapting to climate change in Pacific Island countries: Theproblem <strong>of</strong> uncertainty. World Development, 29(6), 977-993.Barnett, J., 2005: Titanic states? Impacts and responses to climate change in thePacific Islands. Journal <strong>of</strong> International Affairs, 59, 203-219.Barnett, J. and M. Webber, 2009: Accommodating Migration to Promote Adaptationto <strong>Climate</strong> Change. A policy brief prepared for the Secretariat <strong>of</strong> the SwedishCommission on <strong>Climate</strong> Change and Development and the World Bank WorldDevelopment Report 2010 team, Commission on <strong>Climate</strong> Change andDevelopment, Stockholm, Sweden.Barnston, A.G., S. Li, S.L. Mason, D.G. DeWitt, L. Goddard, and X. Gong, 2010:Verification <strong>of</strong> the first 11 years <strong>of</strong> iri’s seasonal climate forecasts. Journal <strong>of</strong>Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 49, 493-520.Bartlett, S., 2008: <strong>Climate</strong> change and urban children: impacts and implications foradaptation in low- and middle income countries. Environment & Urbanization,20(2), 501-519.Batterbury, S., 2001: Landscapes <strong>of</strong> diversity: A local political ecology <strong>of</strong> livelihooddiversification in south-western Niger. Ecumene, 8(4), 437-464.Beck, U., 2000: Risk society revisited: Theory, politics and research programmes. In:The Risk Society and Beyond [Adam, B., U. Beck, and J. van Loon (eds.)]. SAGEPublications, London, UK, 211-229.Beck, U., 2008: La Sociedad del Riesgo Mundial. Paidós, Barcelona, Spain.Beg, N., J.C. Morlot, O. Davidson, Y. Afrane-Okesse, L. Tyani, F. Denton, Y. Sokona, J.P.Thomas, E.L. La Rovere, J.K. Parikh, K. Parikh, and A.A. Rahman, 2002: Linkagesbetween climate change and sustainable development. <strong>Climate</strong> Policy, 2, 129-144.Beni<strong>of</strong>f, R., S. Guill, and J. Lee (eds.), 1996: Vulnerability and AdaptationAssessments: An International Handbook. Kluwer Academic Publishers,Dordrecht, The Netherlands.Bennet, G., 1970: Bristol floods 1968: controlled survey <strong>of</strong> effects on health <strong>of</strong> localcommunity disaster. British Medical Journal, 3, 454-458.Benson, C. and E. Clay, 2000: Developing countries and the economic impacts <strong>of</strong>natural disasters. In <strong>Managing</strong> disaster risk in emerging economies [Kreimer, A.and M. Arnold (eds.)]. World Bank, Washington, DC, pp. 11-21.Bertoni, J.C., 2006: Urban floods in Latin America: reflections on the role <strong>of</strong> riskfactors. In: Frontiers in Flood Research [Tchiguirinskaia, I., K.N.N. Thein, and P.Hubert (eds.)]. IAHS publication 305, International Association <strong>of</strong> HydrologicalSciences, Wallingford, UK, pp. 123-141.Bettencourt, S., R. Croad, P. Freeman, J. Hay, R. Jones, P. King, P. Lal, A. Mearns, G.Miller, I. Pswarayi-Riddihough, A. Simpson, N. Teuatabo, U. Trotz, and M.K. vanAalst, 2006: Not If, But When. Adapting To Natural Hazards in the Pacific IslandsRegion. World Bank, Washington, DC.Biermann, F., 2007: ‘Earth system governance’ as a crosscutting theme <strong>of</strong> globalchange research. Global Environmental Change, 17(3-4), 326-337.Biermann, F., M. Betsill, J. Gupta, N. Kanie, L. Lebel, D. Livermann, H. Schroeder, andB. 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UNHCR Working Paper34, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva, Switzerland, 19 pp.Blaikie, P., T. Cannon, I. Davis, and B. Wisner, 1994: At Risk: Natural Hazards, People,Vulnerability, and Disasters. Routledge, London, UK.Blaikie, P., T. Cannon, I. Davis, and B. Wisner, 1996: Vulnerabilidad, el entorno socialde los desastres. La RED-ITDG, Bogota, Colombia.Blockley, D. (ed.), 1992: Engineering Safety. McGraw-Hill International Series in CivilEngineering, London, UK.Boentje, J.P. and M.S. Blinnikov, 2007: Post-Soviet forest fragmentation and loss in theGreen Belt around Moscow, Russia (1991-2001): a remote sensing perspective.Landscape and Urban Planning, 82(4), 208-221.Bogardi, J. and J. Birkmann, 2004: Vulnerability assessment: the first step towardssustainable risk reduction. In: Disasters and Society – From Hazard Assessmentto Risk Reduction [Malzahn, D. and T. Plapp (eds.)]. Logos Verlag, Berlin,Germany, pp. 75-82.97
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Toward a Sustainable and Resilient
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Case StudiesChapter 9Table of Conte
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Case StudiesChapter 99.1. Introduct
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Case StudiesChapter 9••••
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Case StudiesChapter 9multi-hazard r
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Case StudiesChapter 9to be removed
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Case StudiesChapter 9CRED, 2009: EM
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Case StudiesChapter 9Hallegatte, S.
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Case StudiesChapter 9O’Neill, M.S
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Case StudiesChapter 9Skaff, M. and
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Case StudiesChapter 9Visser, R. and
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ANNEXI Authors and Expert Reviewers
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Annex IAuthors and Expert Reviewers
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ANNEXIIGlossary of TermsThis annex
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Annex IIGlossary of Termswater vapo
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Annex IIGlossary of Termsdrought, a
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Annex IIGlossary of TermsImpactsEff
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ANNEXIIIAcronyms565
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Annex IIIAcronymsNAMNAONAPANaTechND
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ANNEXIVList of Major IPCC Reports56
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Annex IVList of Major IPCC ReportsC
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Index573
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Indexresilience building, 378touris
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IndexEM-DAT database, 364Emissions
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Indextransformation and, 324See als
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IndexRisk sharing, 10-11, 397, 523i