IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access

Case StudiesChapter 9to implement strategies to minimize negative impacts (Mijiddorj,2008; UNDP Mongolia, 2009a). The recent national CCA report outlinesgovernment strategy priorities as: (i) education and awareness campaignsamong the decisionmakers, rural community, herders, and the generalpublic; (ii) technology and information transfer to farmers and herdsmen;(iii) research and technology to ensure the development of agriculturethat could successfully deal with various environmental problems; and(iv) improved coordination of stakeholders’ activities based on research,inventory, and monitoring findings (Dagvadorj et al., 2010). Themanagement of risk in the livestock sector requires a combination ofapproaches. Traditional herding and pastoral risk reduction practicescan better prepare herders for moderate weather events. For countrywidedzud events, however, high levels of livestock mortality are oftenunavoidable, even for the most experienced herders, and pastureresource and herd management must be complemented by risk-financingmechanisms that provide herders with instant liquidity in the aftermathof a disaster (Goodland et al., 2009).At an international level: As Mongolia is a country extremely proneto natural disasters, addressing climate change risks is a priority inMongolia. In 2009, the Mongolian Government undertook the project‘Strengthening the Disaster Mitigation and Management Systems inMongolia’ under the National Emergency Management Agency (UNDPMongolia, 2009b; Sternberg, 2010).9.2.4.5. ConsequencesThe most critical consequences of dzud are increased poverty and massmigration from rural to urban and from remote to central regions (Oyun,2004; Dagvadorj et al., 2010). According to national statistics there hasbeen a continuous increase in poverty over the last decade (NSO, 2011).In response to the climatic hardship, a growing proportion of the ruralpopulation has migrated to urban areas and the central region (Dagvadorjet al., 2010; UNDP Mongolia, 2010). Livestock-herding families areforced to migrate because of poverty caused by loss of livestock fromcatastrophic weather events (Sternberg, 2010). Besides poverty, thereare reasons why members of herding families may wish to leave thelivestock sector, including obtaining a better education for their childrenand access to health care (Mahul and Skees, 2005). Many migrantstravel from Western Mongolia to the capital city Ulaanbaatar (Saizen etal., 2010; Sternberg, 2010).9.2.4.6. Lessons IdentifiedCurrent policies and measures are mainly limited to post-disastergovernment relief and restocking activities with donors’ funding andindividual herder’s traditional knowledge and practices (Batjargal et al.,2001; AIACC, 2006). These can be insufficient to avoid, prepare for, andrespond to a dzud (Goodland et al., 2009). Various practices have beenidentified as effective for DRR, and could further contribute to promoteCCA. These include localized seasonal climate prediction and improvementof early warning (Morinaga et al., 2003; MMS, 2009), risk-insuring systems(Skees and Enkh-Amgalan, 2002; Mahul and Skees, 2005), and policy(Batjargal et al., 2001; AIACC, 2006; Goodland et al., 2009).At present, adaptation occurs through increased mobility of herders insearch of better pasture for their animals in dzud disasters (Batjargal etal., 2001), and as a response to changed rain patterns occurring oversmall areas, which the herders call ‘silk embroidery rain’ (Marin, 2010).Livelihood diversification to create resilient livelihoods for herders hasalso been seen as being effective for building climate resilience (Mahuland Skees, 2005; Borgford-Parnell, 2009; MMS, 2009, Dagvadorj et al.,2010).9.2.5. Cyclones: Enabling Policies andResponsive Institutions for Community Action9.2.5.1. IntroductionTropical cyclones, also called typhoons and hurricanes, are powerfulstorms generated over tropical and subtropical waters. Their extremelystrong winds damage buildings, infrastructure and other assets; thetorrential rains often cause floods and landslides; and high waves andstorm surge often lead to extensive coastal flooding and erosion – all ofwhich have major impacts on people. Tropical cyclones are typicallyclassified in terms of their intensity, based on measurements or estimatesof near-surface wind speed (sometimes categorized on a scale of 1 to 5according to the Saffir-Simpson scale). The strongest storms (Categories3, 4, and 5) are comparatively rare but are generally responsible for themajority of damage (Section 3.4.4).The focus of this case study is the comparison between the response toIndian Ocean cyclones in Bangladesh (Sidr in 2007) and in Myanmar(Nargis in 2008) in the context of the developments in preparednessand response in Bangladesh resulting from experiences with CycloneBhola in 1970, Gorky in 1991, and other events. To provide a moreglobal context, the impacts and responses to 2005 Hurricanes Stan andWilma in Central America and Mexico are also discussed. These clearlydemonstrate that climate change adaptation efforts can be effective inlimiting the impacts from extreme tropical cyclone events by use ofdisaster risk reduction methods.Changes in tropical cyclone activity due to anthropogenic influences arediscussed in Section 3.4.4. There is low confidence that any observed longtermincreases in tropical cyclone activity are robust, after accounting forpast changes in observing capabilities. The uncertainties in the historicaltropical cyclone records, the incomplete understanding of the physicalmechanisms linking tropical cyclone metrics to climate change, and thedegree of tropical cyclone variability provide only low confidence for theattribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity toanthropogenic influences. There is low confidence in projections ofchanges in tropical cyclone genesis, location, tracks, duration, or areas502