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Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentChapter 3Table 3-3 (continued)E. Asia (Continued)Regions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessW. Asia(WAS, 19)TibetanPlateau(TIB, 21)High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease (Fig. 3-3). Likely increase inRV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease (Fig. 3-3). Likely increase inRV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: Likely more frequent,longer and/or more intense heat waves andwarm spells (T06; Clark et al., 2010; OS11).Medium confidence: Some dependency ofmagnitude of signal on index choice (OS11).Low confidence: Inconsistent signal of change in HP(T06; Fig. 3-6; Fig. 3-7).Low confidence: Inconsistent signalof change in CDD and SMA (T06;SW08b; Fig. 3-10).G G G G GHigh confidence: Likely more frequent,longer, and/or more intense heat waves andwarm spells (T06; Clark et al., 2010; OS11).Medium confidence: Increase in HP (T06; Figs. 3-6and 3-7).Low confidence: Inconsistent signalof change in CDD (T06; SW08b; Fig.3-10).G G G G GF. Australia/New ZealandRegions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessAll Australiaand NewZealandN. Australia(NAU, 25)S. Australia/New Zealand(SAU, 26)High confidence: WD very likely to increase andCD very likely to decrease in all regions (CSIRO,2007; Mullan et al., 2008; Fig. 3-3). Very likelyincrease in RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD very likely to increase andCD very likely to decrease (CSIRO, 2007; Fig. 3-3). Very likely increase in RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD very likely to increase andCD very likely to decrease (CSIRO, 2007; Fig. 3-3). Very likely increase in RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).Low confidence to medium confidence:Strongest New Zealand increases in WD inNorth Island and largest decreases in frost daysin South Island (Mullan et al., 2008).High confidence: WN very likely to increaseeverywhere (T06; Kharin et al., 2007;Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; Fig. 3-4) andCN very likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).Medium confidence: WN increaseeverywhere. Largest increases in WN in N.compared with S. and most consistentchanges in inland regions (Alexander andArblaster, 2009).High confidence: WN very likely to increase(T06; Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; Fig. 3-4) and CN very likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).Medium confidence: Changes larger than inS. Australia (Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).High confidence: WN very likely to increase(T06; Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; Fig. 3-4) and CN very likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).Medium confidence: Changes smaller thanin N. Australia (Alexander and Arblaster,2009).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;OS11; Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).Medium confidence: Strongest increases inHW duration in N.W. and most consistentincreases inland (Alexander and Arblaster,2009).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; OS11).Medium confidence: Strongest increases inN.W. and most consistent increases inland(Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; OS11).Medium confidence: Most consistentincreases inland (Alexander and Arblaster,2009).Low confidence: Lack of agreement regarding signof change for different models and different indices,and spatial variations in signal (T06; Figs. 3-6 and 3-7).Low confidence: HPD tend to increase in E. anddecrease in W. half of country – but considerableinter-model inconsistencies; HPC tends to increaseeverywhere – but considerable inter-modelinconsistencies (Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).Low confidence: Lack of agreement regarding signof change for different models and different indices(T06; Fig. 3-6, Fig. 3-7).Low confidence: Lack of agreement regarding signof change for different models and different indices,and spatial variations in signal (T06; Fig. 3-6, Fig. 3-7).Low confidence to medium confidence: In NewZealand, increase in HP events at most locations(Mullan et al., 2008; Carey-Smith et al., 2010).Low confidence to mediumconfidence depending on region:Models agree on increase in CDD inS. Australia, but inconsistent signalover most of S. Australia in SMA;inconsistent signal in CDD and SMAin N. Australia (T06; SW08b; Fig. 3-10). Strongest CDD increases in W.half of Australia (Alexander andArblaster, 2009). Inconsistentchange in area of droughtdepending on index used (Burke andBrown, 2008).G G G G GLow confidence: Inconsistent signalin CDD and SMA (T06; SW08b; Fig.3-10).G G G G GMedium confidence: Models agreeon increase in CDD in southernAustralia including S.W. (T06;Alexander and Arblaster, 2009; Fig.3-10), but inconsistent signal inSMA over most of the region, slightdecrease in S.W. (SW08b; Fig. 3-10).G R G G G R G202
Chapter 3Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentReferencesA digital library of non-journal-based literature cited in this chapter thatmay not be readily available to the public has been compiled as part ofthe IPCC review and drafting process, and can be accessed via either theIPCC Secretariat or IPCC Working Group II web sites.Abbs, D., and T. Rafter, 2008: The Effect of Climate Change on Extreme RainfallEvents in the Western Port Region. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research,Aspendale, Australia, 23 pp.Abeysirigunawardena, D.S. and I.J. Walker, 2008: Sea level responses to climaticvariability and change in northern British Columbia. Atmosphere-Ocean, 46(3),277-296.Abeysirigunawardena, D.S., E. Gilleland, D. Bronaugh, and W. Wong, 2009:Extreme wind regime responses to climate variability and change in the innersouth coast of British Columbia, Canada. Atmosphere-Ocean, 47(1), 41-62.Adams, P.N., D.L. Imnan, and N.E. 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Timmermann, L. Bejarano, F.F. Jin, F. Justino, Z. Liu, and A.W. Tudhope, 2004:Modeling evidence for enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation amplitude duringthe Last Glacial Maximum. Paleoceanography, 19, PA4009.Anders, I., and B. Rockel, 2009: The influence of prescribed soil type distribution onthe representation of present climate in a regional climate model. ClimateDynamics, 33(2-3), 177-186.Andersen, O.B., S.I. Seneviratne, J. Hinderer, and P. Viterbo, 2005: GRACE-derivedterrestrial water storage depletion associated with the 2003 European heatwave. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L18405.Anderson, C.J., R.W. Arritt, E.S. Takle, Z.T. Pan, W.J. Gutowski, F.O. Otieno, R. da Silva,D. Caya, J.H. Christensen, D. Luthi, M.A. Gaertner, C. Gallardo, F. Giorgi, S.Y. Hong,C. Jones, H.M.H. Juang, J.J. Katzfey, W.M. Lapenta, R. Laprise, J.W. Larson, G.E.Liston, J.L. McGregor, R.A. Pielke, J.O. Roads, and J.A. Taylor, 2003: Hydrologicalprocesses in regional climate model simulations of the central United Statesflood of June-July 1993. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 4(3), 584-598.Andrade, C., H.O. Pires, R. Taborda, and M.C. Freitas, 2007: Projecting future changesin wave climate and coastal response in Portugal by the end of the 21st century.Journal of Coastal Research, SI50, 253-257.Andreadis, K.M. and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2006: Trends in 20th century drought over thecontinental United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L10403.Andreadis, K.M., E.A. Clark, A.W. Wood, A.F. Hamlet, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2005:Twentieth-century drought in the conterminous United States. Journal ofHydrometeorology, 6(6), 985-1001.Arblaster, J.M., G.A. Meehl, and D.J. Karoly, 2011: Future climate change in theSouthern Hemisphere: Competing effects of ozone and greenhouse gases.Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L02701.Arriaga-Ramírez, S. and T. 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MANAGING THE RISKS OF EXTREMEEVENTS
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Managing the Risks of Extreme Event
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I Foreword and Preface
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Prefacein understanding and managin
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Summary for PolicymakersBox SPM.1 |
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Summary for PolicymakersB.or sub-na
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Summary for PolicymakersIt is likel
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Summary for Policymakersmicro-insur
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Summary for PolicymakersIt is very
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Summary for PolicymakersOther low-r
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Summary for PolicymakersTable SPM.1
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Summary for PolicymakersBox SPM.2 |
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III Chapters 1 to 9
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Climate Change: New Dimensions in D
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Determinants of Risk: Exposure and
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138much of the continental United S
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National Systems for Managing the R
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Managing the Risks: International L
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Toward a Sustainable and Resilient
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Case StudiesChapter 9Table of Conte
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Case StudiesChapter 99.1. Introduct
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Case StudiesChapter 9••••
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ANNEXI Authors and Expert Reviewers
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Annex IAuthors and Expert Reviewers
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ANNEXIIGlossary of TermsThis annex
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Annex IIGlossary of Termswater vapo
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Annex IIGlossary of Termsdrought, a
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Annex IIGlossary of TermsImpactsEff
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Annex IIGlossary of Termsforcing is
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ANNEXIIIAcronyms565
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Annex IIIAcronymsNAMNAONAPANaTechND
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ANNEXIVList of Major IPCC Reports56
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Annex IVList of Major IPCC ReportsC
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Index573
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Indexresilience building, 378touris
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IndexEM-DAT database, 364Emissions
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Indextransformation and, 324See als
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IndexRisk sharing, 10-11, 397, 523i
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