IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access

Chapter 3Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment1086420Alaska/N.W. Canada - 110864202046−65 2081−00W. North America - 3102046−65 2081−00E. Canada/Greenl./Icel. - 210864202046−65 2081−00C. North America - 4E. North America - 510864202046−65 2081−00108Central 50%intermodel rangeFull model range642Scenarios:B1 A1B A2MedianTemperature change(°C)1114Central America/Mexico - 610864202046−65 2081−001086420W. Coast South America - 910864202046−65 2081−00864202046−65 2081−00Amazon - 72046−65 2081−0010864201086420S.E. South America - 102046−65 2081−00N.E. Brazil - 82046−65 2081−0010C. Europe - 12864202046−65 2081−00S. Europe/Mediterranean - 13108641086420N. Europe - 112046−65 2081−00W. Asia - 1910864211202046−65 2081−00108642010864200Sahara - 142046−65 2081−00W. Africa - 152046−65 2081−00S. Africa - 1710864202046−65 2081−00108642002046−65 2081−00E. Africa - 162046−65 2081−001086420C. Asia - 201086422046−65 2081−00S. Asia - 2310864202046−65 2081−00N. Asia - 182046−65 2081−00Tibetan Plateau - 21E. Asia - 22101086420864202046−65 2081−00 2046−65 2081−00S.E. Asia - 2410864202046−65 2081−00N. Australia - 2510864202046−65 2081−00S. Australia/New Zealand - 2610864202046−65 2081−0002046−65 2081−00LegendΔ 20-year return value (°C)10864202046−65 2081−00Globe (Land only)1086420Δ mean (°C)2046−65 2081−00Figure 3-5a | Projected changes (in °C) in 20-year return values of the annual maximum of the daily maximum temperature. The bar plots (see legend for more information) show results for regionally averaged projections for twotime horizons, 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2100, as compared to the late 20th century (1981-2000), and for three different SRES emission scenarios (B1, A1B, A2). Results are based on 12 GCMs contributing to the CMIP3. SeeFigure 3-1 for defined extent of regions. Values are computed for land points only. The ‘Globe’ analysis (inset box) displays the change in 20-year return values of the annual maximum of the daily maximum temperature computedusing all land grid points (left), and the change in annual mean daily maximum temperature computed using all land grid points (right). Adapted from the analysis of Kharin et al. (2007). For more details, see Appendix 3.A.139