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Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentChapter 3Table 3-2 (continued)D. South AmericaRegions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessAll SouthAmericaAmazon(AMZ, 7)N.E. Brazil(NEB, 8)S.E. SouthAmerica(SSA, 10)W. CoastSouthAmerica(WSA, 9)Low confidence to medium confidencedepending on region: Low confidence in trendsin WD and CD due to insufficient evidence inmany regions, in particular in northern half ofcontinent. Medium confidence in trends insouthern half of continent but often spatiallyvarying trends. See regional assessments fordetails and basis for continental assessment.Low confidence: Insufficient, scattered, evidence(Alexander et al., 2006; Dufek et al., 2008).Medium confidence: Increases in WD (Silva andAzevedo, 2008).Medium confidence: Spatially varying trends.Increases in WD in some areas, decrease inothers. Decreases in CD in some areas, increasein others (Rusticucci and Barrucand, 2004;Vincent et al., 2005; Alexander et al., 2006;Rusticucci and Renom, 2008; Marengo et al.,2009b).Medium confidence: Increases in WD in someareas, decrease in others. Decreases in CD insome areas, increase in others (Rosenbluth et al.,1997; Vincent et al., 2005; Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence to medium confidencedepending on region: Low confidence intrends in WN and CN due to insufficientevidence in many regions, in particular innorthern half of continent. Mediumconfidence in decrease in CN and increase inWN in southern half of continent. Seeregional assessments for details and basisfor continental assessment.Low confidence: Insufficient, scattered,evidence (Alexander et al., 2006; Dufek etal., 2008).Medium confidence: Increases in WN (Silvaand Azevedo, 2008).Medium confidence: Decreases in CN,increases in WN (Rusticucci and Barrucand,2004; Vincent et al., 2005; Alexander et al.,2006; Rusticucci and Renom, 2008;Marengo et al., 2009b).Medium confidence: Decreases in CN,increases in WN (Rosenbluth et al., 1997;Vincent et al., 2005; Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence(most of continent) or lack of coherentsignal (Southeast South America). Seeregional assessments for details andbasis for continental assessment.Low confidence: Insufficient evidence orspatially varying trends. See regionalassessments for details and basis forcontinental assessment.Low confidence: Insufficient evidence. Medium confidence: Spatially varyingtrends. Increase in many areas, decrease ina few areas (Alexander et al., 2006;Haylock et al., 2006b).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence. Medium confidence: Increase in manyareas, decrease in a few areas, (Alexanderet al., 2006; Haylock et al., 2006b; Santosand Brito, 2007; Silva and Azevedo, 2008;Santos et al., 2009).Low confidence: Spatially varyingtrends. Some areas increase, othersdecrease (Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence to medium confidence,depending on subregion: Mediumconfidence: Increase in northern portion ofdomain (Alexander et al., 2006; Dufek etal., 2008; Sugahara et al., 2009; Penalbaand Robledo, 2010). Low confidence insouthern portion of domain: Insufficientevidence.Low confidence: Insufficient evidence. Medium confidence: Spatially varyingtrends. Decrease in many areas, increase ina few areas (Alexander et al., 2006;Haylock et al., 2006b).Low confidence: Spatially varying trends,inconsistencies between studies (Sheffieldand Wood, 2008a; Dai, 2011).Low confidence: Spatially varying trends,mixed results. Slight decrease in CDD(Dufek et al., 2008). Tendency to decreaseddryness in much of region, but someopposite trends and inconsistenciesbetween studies (Sheffield and Wood,2008a; Dai, 2011).Low confidence: Spatially varying trends.Inconsistent trends in CDD (Santos andBrito, 2007; Dufek et al., 2008; Silva andAzevedo, 2008; Santos et al., 2009).Inconsistent trends in dryness (SMA, PDSI)between studies (Sheffield and Wood,2008a; Dai, 2011).Low confidence: Slight increase in dryness,large variability (Haylock et al., 2006b;Dufek and Ambrizzi, 2008; Dufek et al.,2008; Llano and Penalba, 2011). Decreasein dryness (SMA, PDSI) in much of region(Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai, 2011).Low confidence: Overall inconsistent andspatially varying signal (SMA, PDSI, CDD)(Dufek et al., 2008; Sheffield and Wood,2008a; Dai, 2011).E. AsiaRegions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessAll AsiaN. Asia(NAS, 18)Low confidence to high confidence depending onregion: On continental scale, medium confidencein overall increase in WD and decrease in CD(Alexander et al., 2006). See also individualregional entries.High confidence: Likely increases in WD, likelydecreases in CD (Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence to high confidencedepending on region: On continental scale,medium confidence in overall increase inWN and decrease in CN (Alexander et al.,2006). See also individual regional entries.High confidence: Likely decreases in CN,likely increases in WN (Alexander et al.,2006).Low confidence to medium confidencedepending on region: Low confidencedue to insufficient evidence in severalregions; medium confidence in trends inother regions (Alexander et al., 2006).See also individual regional entries.Medium confidence: Spatially varyingtrends. Overall WSDI increase, WSDIdecrease in a few areas (Alexander etal., 2006).Low confidence to medium confidencedepending on region: Low confidence dueto insufficient evidence or inconsistenttrends in several regions; mediumconfidence in trends in HP in a few regions(Alexander et al., 2006). See also individualregional entries.Low confidence: Increase in some regions,but spatial variations (Alexander et al.,2006). Some increase in western Russia,especially in winter (DJF), 1950–2000(Zolina et al., 2009).Low confidence to medium confidencedepending on region: Low confidence inmost regions due to spatially varyingtrends. Some areas have consistentincreases, but others display decreases indryness indicated by different measures(SMA, PDSI, CDD) (Alexander et al., 2006;Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai, 2011).Low confidence: Spatially varying trends.Tendency for increased dryness (SMA, PDSI,CDD) in central and northeastern N. Asia,other areas decreased dryness (Alexanderet al., 2006; Sheffield and Wood, 2008a;Dai, 2011).Continued next page194
Chapter 3Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentTable 3-2 (continued)E. Asia (Continued)Regions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessCentral Asia(CAS, 20)E. Asia(EAS, 22)S.E. Asia(SEA, 24)S. Asia(SAS, 23)W. Asia(WAS, 19)TibetanPlateau(TIB, 21)High confidence: Likely increases in WD, likelydecreases in CD (Alexander et al., 2006).High confidence: Likely increases in WD, likelydecreases in CD (Alexander et al., 2006; Ding etal., 2010).Medium confidence: Increases in WD, decreasesin CD in northern part of domain (Alexander etal., 2006).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence for MalayArchipelago.Medium confidence: Increase in WD anddecrease in CD (Alexander et al., 2006).High confidence: More likely than not decreasein CD and very likely increase in WD(Rahimzadeh et al., 2009; Rehman, 2010).High confidence: Likely increase in WD and likelydecrease in CD (Alexander et al., 2006).High confidence: Likely decreases in CN,likely increases in WN (Alexander et al.,2006).Medium confidence: Decreases in CN,increases in WN (Alexander et al., 2006).Medium confidence: Decreases in CN,increases in WN in northern part of domain.(Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence forMalay Archipelago.Medium confidence: Decreases in CN,increases in WN (Alexander et al., 2006).High confidence: Likely decrease in CN andlikely increase in WN (Rehman, 2010).High confidence: Likely decreases in CN,likely increases in WN (Alexander et al.,2006).Medium confidence: WSDI increase in afew areas, insufficient evidenceelsewhere (Alexander et al., 2006).Medium confidence: Increase in warmseason heat waves in China (Ding et al.,2010); increase in WSDI in northernChina, but decline in southern China(Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence: Spatially varying trends.Increase in a few areas, decrease in a fewareas (Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence: Spatially varying trends.Increase in a few areas, decrease in a fewareas (Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence. Low confidence: Spatially varying trendsand partial lack of evidence. Some areasincrease, some areas decrease (Alexanderet al., 2006).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence. Low confidence: Mixed signal in India(Alexander et al., 2006).Medium confidence: WSDI increase(Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence: Spatially varying trends(Alexander et al., 2006).Medium confidence: Decrease in heavyprecipitation events (Kwarteng et al., 2009;Rahimzadeh et al., 2009).Low confidence: Spatially varying trends indryness (SMA, PDSI, CDD); partial lack ofcoverage in some studies (Alexander et al.,2006; Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai,2011).Medium confidence: Overall tendency forincreased dryness (SMA, PDSI, CDD); fewareas with opposite trends (Alexander et al.,2006; Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai,2011).Low confidence: Spatially varying trends,inconsistent trends in dryness (SMA, PDSI)between studies (Sheffield and Wood,2008a; Dai, 2011).Low confidence: Inconsistent signal fordifferent studies and indices. Decrease inCDD over India (Alexander et al., 2006).Increased dryness (SMA, PDSI) in centralIndia (Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai,2011).Low confidence: Lack of studies for part ofthe region; mixed results (Sheffield andWood, 2008a; Rahimzadeh et al., 2009).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence. Low confidence: Lack of studies. Tendencyto decreased dryness (PDSI, SMA) in Dai(2011).F. Australia/New ZealandRegions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm Spells Heavy PrecipitationDrynessAll Australiaand NewZealandN. Australia(NAU, 25)S. Australia/New Zealand(SAU, 26)High confidence: Overall likely increases in WD,likely decreases in CD. See individual regionalentries for assessment basis and details.High confidence: Likely increases in WD, likelydecreases in CD. Weaker trends in northwest(Alexander et al., 2006).High confidence: Very likely increases in WD,very likely decreases in CD (Alexander et al.,2006). NZ positive trends vary across country,related to circulation changes (Chambers andGriffiths, 2008; Mullan et al., 2008).High confidence: Overall likely decreases inCN, likely increases in WN. See individualregional entries for assessment basis anddetails.High confidence: Likely decreases in CN,likely increases in WN (Alexander et al.,2006; Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).High confidence: Very likely decreases inCN, very likely increases in WN (Alexanderet al., 2006; Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).General decrease in frosts in NZ but trendsvary across country, related to circulationchanges (Chambers and Griffiths, 2008;Mullan et al., 2008).Low confidence to medium confidencedepending on region: See individualregional entries for assessment basisand details.Low confidence: Insufficient literaturefor assessment.Medium confidence: Increase in warmspells across southern Australia(Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).Low confidence to high confidencedepending on region: Insufficient studiesfor assessment in N. Australia, likelydecrease in HP in many areas in S.Australia. See individual regional entries forassessment basis and details.Low confidence: Insufficient studies forassessment.High confidence: Likely decrease in heavyprecipitation in many areas, especiallywhere mean precipitation has decreased(CSIRO, 2007; Gallant et al., 2007;Alexander and Arblaster, 2009). NZ trendsare positive in western N. and S. Islandsand negative in east of country, and arestrongly correlated with changes in meanrainfall (Mullan et al., 2008).Medium confidence: Some regions withdryness decreases, others with drynessincreases. See individual regional entries forassessment basis and details.Medium confidence: Decrease in dryness(SMA, PDSI) in northwest since mid-20thcentury (Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai,2011).Medium confidence: Increase in dryness(SMA, PDSI, CDD) in southeastern part andsouthwestern tip of Australia since mid-20thcentury. Decrease in dryness in central partof Australia (Alexander et al., 2006;Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai, 2011).195
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MANAGING THE RISKS OF EXTREMEEVENTS
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Managing the Risks of Extreme Event
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I Foreword and Preface
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Prefacein understanding and managin
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Summary for PolicymakersBox SPM.1 |
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Summary for PolicymakersB.or sub-na
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Summary for PolicymakersIt is likel
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Summary for Policymakersmicro-insur
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Summary for PolicymakersIt is very
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Summary for PolicymakersOther low-r
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Summary for PolicymakersTable SPM.1
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Summary for PolicymakersBox SPM.2 |
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III Chapters 1 to 9
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Climate Change: New Dimensions in D
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Determinants of Risk: Exposure and
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138much of the continental United S
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Managing the Risks from Climate Ext
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National Systems for Managing the R
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Managing the Risks: International L
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Toward a Sustainable and Resilient
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Case StudiesChapter 9Table of Conte
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Case StudiesChapter 99.1. Introduct
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Case StudiesChapter 9••••
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ANNEXI Authors and Expert Reviewers
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Annex IAuthors and Expert Reviewers
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ANNEXIIGlossary of TermsThis annex
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Annex IIGlossary of Termswater vapo
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Annex IIGlossary of Termsdrought, a
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Annex IIGlossary of TermsImpactsEff
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Annex IIGlossary of Termsforcing is
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ANNEXIIIAcronyms565
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Annex IIIAcronymsNAMNAONAPANaTechND
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ANNEXIVList of Major IPCC Reports56
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Annex IVList of Major IPCC ReportsC
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Index573
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Indexresilience building, 378touris
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IndexEM-DAT database, 364Emissions
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Indextransformation and, 324See als
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IndexRisk sharing, 10-11, 397, 523i
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