IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access

Changes in Impacts of Climate Extremes: Human Systems and EcosystemsChapter 4level, related to trends in mean sea level. With upward trends in sealevel very likely to continue (Section 3.5.3), there is high confidence thatlocations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation willcontinue to do so in the future (Section 3.5.5).North America is exposed to coastal storms, and in particular, hurricanes.2005 was a particularly severe year with 14 hurricanes (out of 27 namedstorms) in the Atlantic (NCDC, 2005). There were more than 2,000 deathsduring 2005 (Karl et al., 2009) and widespread destruction on the GulfCoast and in New Orleans in particular. Property damages exceededUS$ 100 billion (Beven et al., 2008; Pielke Jr. et al., 2008). HurricanesKatrina and Rita destroyed more than 100 oil and gas platforms in theGulf and damaged 558 pipelines, halted all oil and gas production in theGulf, and disrupted 20% of US refining capacity (Karl et al., 2009). It isreported that the direct overall losses of Hurricane Katrina were aboutUS$ 138 billion in 2007 dollars (Spranger, 2008). However, 2005 may bean outlier for a variety of reasons – the year saw storms of higher thanaverage frequency, with greater than average intensity, which mademore frequent landfall, including in the most vulnerable region of thecountry (Nordhaus, 2010). The major factor increasing the vulnerabilityand exposure of North America to hurricanes is the growth in population(see, e.g., Pielke Jr. et al., 2008) and increase in property values, particularlyalong the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the United States. While some ofthis increase has been offset by adaptation and improved buildingcodes, Nordhaus (2010) suggests the ratio of hurricane damages tonational GDP has increased by 1.5% per year over the past half-century.However, the choice of start and end dates influences this figure.Future sea level rise and potential increases in storm surge couldincrease inundation and property damage in coastal areas. Hoffman etal. (2010) assumed no acceleration in the current rate of sea level risethrough 2030 and found that property damage from hurricanes wouldincrease by 20%. Frey et al. (2010) simulated the combined effects ofsea level rise and more powerful hurricanes on storm surge in southernTexas in the 2080s. They found that the area inundated by storm surgecould increase from 6-25% to 60-230% across scenarios evaluated. Noadaptation measures were assumed in either study. Globally, uncertaintiesassociated with changes in tropical and extratropical cyclones meanthat a general assessment of the projected effects of storminess onfuture storm surge is not currently possible (Section 3.5.3).earthquakes, fires, and landslides; BTE, 2001). In New Zealand, floodsand droughts are the most costly climate disasters (Hennessy et al.,2007). Economic damage from extreme weather is projected to increaseand provide challenges for adaptation (Hennessy et al., 2007).Observed and projected trends in temperature and precipitationextremes for the region are extensively covered in Chapter 3 (e.g.,Tables 3-2 and 3-3). ENSO is a strong driver of climate variability in thisregion (see Section 3.4.2).4.4.7.2. Temperature ExtremesDuring the Eastern Australian heat wave, in February 2004, temperaturesreached 48.5°C in western New South Wales. About two-thirds ofcontinental Australia recorded maximum temperatures over 39°C. Dueto heat-related stresses, the Queensland ambulance service recorded a53% increase in ambulance call-outs (Steffen et al., 2006). A week-longheat wave in Victoria in 2009 corresponded with a sharp increase indeaths in the state. For the week of the heat wave a total of 606 deathswere expected and there were a total of 980 deaths, representing a62% increase (DHS, 2009).An increase in heat-related deaths is projected given a warming climate(Hennessy et al., 2007). In Australian temperate cities, the number ofdeaths is projected to more than double in 2020 from 1,115 per year atpresent and to increase to between 4,300 and 6,300 per year by 2050for all emission scenarios, including demographic change (McMichael etal., 2003b). In Auckland and Christchurch, a total of 14 heat-related deathsoccur per year in people aged over 65, but this number is projected torise approximately two-, three-, and six-fold for warming of 1, 2, and 3°C,respectively (McMichael et al., 2003b). An aging society in Australia andNew Zealand would amplify these figures. For example, it has beenprojected that, by 2100, the Australian annual death rate in people agedover 65 would increase from a 1999 baseline of 82 per 100,000 to arange of between 131 and 246 per 100,000 in 2100 for the scenariosexamined (SRES B2 and A2, with stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 at450 ppm; Woodruff et al., 2005). In Australia, cities with a temperateclimate are expected to experience more heat-related deaths than thosewith a tropical climate (McMichael et al., 2003b).4.4.7. OceaniaThe region of Oceania consists of Australia, New Zealand, and severalsmall island states that are considered separately in Section 4.4.10.4.4.7.1. IntroductionExtreme events have severe impacts in both Australia and New Zealand.In Australia, weather- and climate-related events cause around 87% ofeconomic damage due to natural disasters (storms, floods, cyclones,4.4.7.3. DroughtsThere is a complex pattern of observed and projected changes in drynessover the region, with increasing dryness in some areas, and decreasingdryness or inconsistent signals in others (Tables 3-2 and 3-3). However,several high-impact drought events have been recorded (OCDESC,2007).In Australia, the damages due to the droughts of 1982-1983, 1991-1995,and 2002-2003 were US$ 2.3, 3.8, and 7.6 billion, respectively (Hennessyet al., 2007). Droughts have a negative impact on water security in the260