IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access

Chapter 9Case Studies• Wind deflection fins are being used to prevent snow loading onroofs and obstructions around exits in NWT (Waechter, 2005).• In Tuktoyaktuk, NWT, important buildings, including the policestation and a school at risk of severe damage or loss have beenmoved inland (Governments of Northwest Territories, Nunavut, andYukon, 2010) and concrete mats bound together with chains arebeing used to limit erosion (Johnson et al., 2003).• Shims or pillars to elevate buildings are being used to make themless vulnerable to permafrost thaw (USARC, 2003).• Construction of new bridges and all-weather roads to replace iceroads that are no longer stable is underway (Infrastructure Canada,2006).9.2.10.5. Lessons IdentifiedNorthern Canada can be considered a vulnerable region given theexpected climate-related risks. As the climate continues to warm in theNorth, infrastructure in many remote communities will become morevulnerable as well.More research, especially into vulnerabilities in northern regions of theglobe, and the identification of adaptation options for establishedcommunities would be of benefit for adaptation. Additionally, whilegovernmental programs and support are available, a significant portionof it has been devoted to adaptation planning and strategizing. Animportant issue is the funding needed to help northern Canadiancommunities implement adaptation actions.Finally, codes and standards are an integral part of addressing climateimpacts on infrastructure. Given the importance of this task, buildingcodes in vulnerable regions need more review and attention to protectcommunities. An evaluation and monitoring program that focuses oncodes and structures as well as adaptation options is noticeably lacking.Despite the complexity of these risks, however, a concerted effort fromthree tiers of government and community can work to reduce thevulnerability of infrastructure and northern communities.9.2.11. Early Warning Systems: Adapting to Reduce Impacts9.2.11.1. IntroductionIt is recognized that vulnerability and exposure can never be reduced tozero but risk can be reduced by effective systems for early warning ofextreme events that may occur in the near- through to longer-termfuture (Broad and Agrawala, 2000; Da Silva et al., 2004; Haile, 2005; Pattet al., 2005; Hansen et al., 2011). This sense of ‘seeing the future’ byunderstanding current and projected risks is essential to effectivelyprepare for, respond to, and recover from extreme events and disasters.It is important to recognize that a changing climate poses additionaluncertainty and therefore early warning systems can contribute to climatesmartdisaster risk management. Effective disaster risk management ina changing climate is facilitated by strong coordination within andbetween sectors to realize adaptation potentials through assessingvulnerabilities and taking anticipatory actions (Choularton, 2007;Braman et al., 2010).9.2.11.2. BackgroundThe Hyogo Framework for Action (UNISDR, 2010; Chapter 7) stresses thatearly warning systems should be “people centered” and that warningsneed to be “timely and understandable to those at risk” and need to“take into account the demographic, gender, cultural, and livelihoodcharacteristics of the target audiences.” “Guidance on how to actupon warnings” should be included. An early warning system is thusconsiderably more than just a forecast of an impending hazard.In 2006, the United Nations International Strategy for DisasterReduction completed a global survey of early warning systems. Theexecutive summary opened with the statement that “If an effectivetsunami early warning system had been in place in the Indian Oceanregion on 26 December 2004, thousands of lives would have beensaved. ... Effective early warning systems not only save lives but alsohelp protect livelihoods and national development gains” (Basher,2006; UN, 2006). Improved early warning systems have contributed toreductions in deaths, injuries, and livelihood losses over the last 30 years(IFRC, 2009). Early warning systems are important at local (Chapter 5),national (Chapter 6), and international scales (Chapter 7). Toward theachievement of sustainable development, early warning systems provideimportant information for decisionmaking and in avoiding tippingpoints (Chapter 8).9.2.11.3. Description of Strategy of Early Warning SystemsEarly warning systems are to alert and inform citizens and governmentsof changes on time scales of minutes to hours for immediate threatsrequiring urgent evasive action; weeks for more advanced preparedness;and seasons and decades for climate variations and changes (Brunet etal., 2010). To date most early warning systems have been based onweather predictions, which provide short-term warnings often withsufficient lead time and accuracy to take evasive action. However, therange of actions that can be taken is limited. Weather predictions oftenprovide less than 24 hours notice of an impending extreme weatherevent and options in resource-poor areas may not extend beyond theemergency evacuations of people (Chapter 5). Thus although lives maybe saved, livelihoods can be destroyed, especially those of the poorestcommunities.While most of the successfully implemented early warning systems todate have focused on shorter time scales, for example, for tornadoes(Doswell et al., 1993), benefits of improved predictions on sub-seasonalto seasonal scales are being addressed (Nicholls, 2001; Brunet et al.,2010; Webster et al., 2010). While hazardous atmospheric events can517