IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Toward a Sustainable and Resilient FutureChapter 8FAQ 8.3 | What practical steps can we take to move toward a sustainable and resilient future?The disruptions caused by disaster events often reveal development failures. They also provide an opportunity for reconsideringdevelopment through reconstruction and disaster risk reduction. Practical steps can address both the root causes of risk found indevelopment relations, including enhancing human rights, gender equity, and environmental integrity, and more proximate causesexpressed most commonly through a need for extending land and property rights, access to critical services and basic needs, includingsocial safety nets and insurance mechanisms, and transparent decisionmaking, especially at the local level. Identifying the drivers ofhazard and vulnerability in ways that empower both those at risk and risk managers to take action is key. This can be done best wherelocal and scientific knowledge is combined in the generation of risk maps or risk management plans. Greater use of local knowledgewhen coupled with local capacity can initiate enhanced accountability in integrated risk decisionmaking that helps to break unsustainabledevelopment relations.The uncertainty that comes with climatic variability and extremes reinforces arguments for better coordination and accountability withingovernance hierarchies and across sectors, as well as between generations and for non-human species in development. Local, national,and international actors bring different strengths and tools to questions of environmental change and its relationship to trends inhuman development. While offering a range of specific practical measures, both local and national approaches to risk management canbetter meet the flexibility demands of adaptation and resilience when they have strong, accountable leadership, and are enhanced bysystematic experimentation and support for innovation in the development of tools as part of planned adaptive risk managementapproaches. International actors can help by providing an institutional framework to support experimentation, innovation, and flexibility.This can be part of national and local strategies to move development away from incentives that promote short-term gain and towardthose that promote longer-term sustainability and flexibility.inequalities that create and sustain poverty and constrain access toresources (Hewitt, 1983; Wisner et al., 2004; Lemos et al., 2007; Collins,2009; Pelling, 2010b).Engaging possible and desirable futures and options for decisionmakingfosters knowledge generation essential for adaptive risk managementas well as iterative change processes. Zooming in on uncertain elementsand their potential impacts (e.g., changes in rainfall and variability)and identifying factors that currently limit adaptive capacity (e.g.,marginalization, lack of access to resources, or information gaps) allowsfor more robust decisionmaking that also integrates local contexts (assetportfolios, spreading and managing risks) with the climate context(current trends, likely futures, and uncertainties) to identify the mostfeasible, appropriate, and equitable response strategies, policies, andexternal interventions (Pettengell, 2010). Creating space and recognizinga diversity of voices often means reframing what counts as knowledge,engaging uncertainties, nourishing the capacity for narrative imagination,and articulating agency and strategic adaptive responses in the face ofalready experienced changes and to anticipate and prepare for futuredisturbances and shocks (Tschakert and Dietrich, 2010).Challenges remain with respect to anticipating low-probability, highimpactevents and potentially catastrophic tipping points that representfutures too undesirable to imagine, especially under circumstanceswhere exposure and vulnerability are high and adaptive capacity low(Volkery and Ribeiro, 2009). At a practical level, there are many gaps andbarriers to realizing synergies for integration to foster a sustainable andresilient future. For example, overcoming the current disconnectbetween local risk management practices and national institutional andlegal frameworks, policy, and planning can be considered key toreconciling short- and long-term goals for vulnerability reduction. Evenwhere capacity is present, it can take effort to shift into more critical,learning modes of governance (Corbacioglu and Kapucu, 2006).Moreover, anticipating vulnerabilities as well as feasible and fair actionsmay also reveal limits of adaptation and risk management, and thusraise the potential need for transformation. Because transformativechanges open up questions about the values and priorities shapingdevelopment and risk futures, who wins and loses, and the balance oftradeoffs, decisions about when and where to facilitate transformativechange and to whose benefit are inherently normative and political.Transformation cannot be approached without understanding relatedethical and governance dimensions. At the same time, incrementalchanges, in supporting many aspects of business-as-usual, also possessimplicit ethical and normative aspects. At heart, it is perhaps in failingto fully reveal and question these normative positions that currentdisaster risk management practice and policy has remained outsideof development planning and policy processes, inhabiting a longacknowledged, but still present ‘disasters archipelago’ in the policyworld (Hewitt, 1983, p. 12).Disasters often require urgent action and represent a time when everydayprocesses for decisionmaking are disrupted. Although it is a usefulapproach in responding to emergency events and disaster relief, suchtop-down command and control frameworks work less well in disasterrisk reduction and this is likely to be the case too in integrated adaptiverisk management. In such systems, it is often the most vulnerable tohazards that are left out of decisionmaking processes (Pelling, 2003,2007; Cutter, 2006; Mercer et al., 2008), whether it is within households470
Chapter 8Toward a Sustainable and Resilient Future(where the knowledge of women, children, or the elderly may not berecognized), within communities (where divisions among social groupsmay hinder learning), or within nations (where marginalized groups maynot be heard, and where social division and political power influencethe development and adaptation agenda). Disaster periods are frequentlythe times when the development visions and aspirations for the futureof those most affected are not recognized. This reflects a widespreadlimitation on the quality and comprehensiveness of local participationin disaster risk reduction and its integration into everyday developmentplanning. Instead, the humanitarian imperative, limited-term reconstructionbudgets, and an understandable desire for rapid action over deliberationmeans that too often international social movements and humanitariannongovernmental organizations, government agencies, and local relieforganizations impose their own values and visions, often with the bestof intentions. It is also important to recognize the potential for somepeople or groups to prevent sustainable decisions by employing theirveto power or lobbying against reforms or regulations based on shorttermpolitical or economic interests (Klein, 2007). The distribution ofpower in society and who has the responsibility or right to shape thefuture through decisionmaking today is thus significant, and includesthe role of international as well as national and local actors. Within theinternational humanitarian community, efforts such as the SphereStandards and the Humanitarian Accountability Partnership are stepstoward addressing this challenge.Actions to reduce disaster risk and responses to climate changeinvariably involve tradeoffs with other societal goals, and conflictsrelated to different values and visions for the future. Innovative andsuccessful solutions that combine multiple perspectives, differingworldviews, and contrasting ways of organizing social relations have beendescribed by Verweij et al. (2006) as ‘clumsy solutions.’ Such solutions,they argue, depend on institutions in which all perspectives are heardand responded to, and where the quality of interactions among competingviewpoints foster creative alternatives. Drawing on the developmentethics literature, St. Clair (2010) notes that when conflict and broadbaseddebate arise, alternatives often flourish and many potentialspaces for action can be created, tapping into people’s innovation andcapacity to cope, adapt, and build resilience. Pelling (2010a) stressesthe importance of social learning for transitional or transformationaladaptation, and points out that it requires a high level of trust, awillingness to experiment and accept the possibility of failure inprocesses of learning and innovation, transparency of values, and activeengagement of civil society. Committing to such a learning process is,as Tschakert and Dietrich (2010, p. 17) argue, preferable to alternativesbecause “learning by shock is neither an empowering nor an ethicallydefensible pathway.”The conjuncture of hazard and vulnerability, realized through disasters,forces coping and adaptation on individuals and society. Climate changeand ongoing development place more people and assets at risk.Noteworthy progress in disaster risk management has been made,especially through the action of early warning on reducing mortality,but underlying vulnerability remains high (as indicated by increasingnumbers of people affected and economic losses from disaster) anddemographic and economic development trends continue to raise thestakes and present a choice: risk can be denied or faced, and adaptationcan be forced or chosen. A reduction in the disaster risks associatedwith climate and weather extremes is therefore a question of politicalchoice that involves addressing issues of equity, rights, and participationat all levels.ReferencesA digital library of non-journal-based literature cited in this chapter thatmay not be readily available to the public has been compiled as part ofthe IPCC review and drafting process, and can be accessed via either theIPCC Secretariat or IPCC Working Group II web sites.AAG, 2003: Global Change and Local Places: Estimating, Understanding, andReducing Greenhouse Gases. Association of American Geographers, CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, UK, 290 pp.Adger, W.N., 1996: Approaches to Vulnerability to Climate Change. CSERGE WorkingPaper #GEC 96-05, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 66 pp.Adger, W.N., 2000: Social and ecological resilience: are they related? Progress inHuman Geography, 24(3), 347-364.Adger, W.N., 2003: Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climatechange. Economic Geography, 79(4), 387-404.Adger, W.N., 2004: The right to keep cold. Environment and Planning A, 36(10),1711-1715.Adger, W.N., S. Huq, K. Brown, D. Conway, and M. Hulme, 2003: Adaptation toclimate change in the developing world. Progress in Development Studies, 3(3),179-195.Adger, W.N., T.P. Hughes, C. Folke, S.R. Carpenter, and J. Rockstrom, 2005: Socialecologicalresilience to coastal disasters. Science, 309, 1036-1039.Adger,W.N., S. Agrawala, M.M.Q. Mirza, C. Conde, K. O’Brien, J. Pulhin, R. Pulwarty,B. Smit, and K. Takahashi, 2007: Assessment of adaptation practices, options,constraints and capacity. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation andVulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Reportof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani,J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds.)], Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, UK, pp. 717-743.Adger, W.N., J. Barnett, and H. Ellemor, 2010: Unique and valued places. In: ClimateChange Science and Policy [Schneider, S. H., A. Rosencranz, M. Mastrandrea,and K. Kuntz-Duriseti (eds.)]. Island Press, Washington, DC, pp. 131-138.Adger, W.N., K. Brown, D. Nelson, F. Berkes, H. Eakin, C. Folke, K. Galvin, L.Gunderson, M. Goulden, K. O’Brien, J. Ruitenbeek, and E. Tompkins, 2011:Resilience implications of policy responses to climate change. WIRES ClimateChange, doi:10.1002/WCC.133.Adly, E. and T. Ahmed, 2009: Water and food security in the river Nile basin:Perspectives of the government and NGOs in Egypt. In: Facing GlobalEnvironmental Change: Environmental, Human, Energy, Food, Health and WaterSecurity Concepts [Brauch, H.G., N.C. Behera, P. Kameri-Mbote, J. Grin, Ú.Oswald Spring, B. Chourou, C. Mesjasz, and H. Krummenacher (eds.)]. Springer,Berlin, Germany, pp. 645-654.Agarwal, B., 1991: Social security and the family: Coping with seasonality andcalamity in rural India. In: Social Security in Developing Countries [Ahmad, E., J.Dreze, J. Hills, and A. Sen (eds.)]. Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK, pp. 171-244.Agrawala, S. (ed.), 2005: Bridge over Troubled Waters: Linking Climate Change andDevelopment. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris,France, 153 pp.471
Page 1:
MANAGING THE RISKS OF EXTREMEEVENTS
Page 5:
Managing the Risks of Extreme Event
Page 9 and 10:
I Foreword and Preface
Page 12 and 13:
Prefacein understanding and managin
Page 17 and 18:
Summary for PolicymakersBox SPM.1 |
Page 19 and 20:
Summary for PolicymakersB.or sub-na
Page 21 and 22:
Summary for PolicymakersIt is likel
Page 23:
Summary for Policymakersmicro-insur
Page 27 and 28:
Summary for PolicymakersIt is very
Page 29 and 30:
Summary for PolicymakersOther low-r
Page 31 and 32:
Summary for PolicymakersTable SPM.1
Page 33 and 34:
Summary for PolicymakersBox SPM.2 |
Page 35:
III Chapters 1 to 9
Page 38 and 39:
Climate Change: New Dimensions in D
Page 40 and 41:
Page 42 and 43:
Page 44 and 45:
Page 46 and 47:
Page 48 and 49:
Page 50 and 51:
Page 52 and 53:
Page 54 and 55:
Page 56 and 57:
Page 58 and 59:
Page 60 and 61:
Page 62 and 63:
Page 64 and 65:
Page 66 and 67:
Page 68 and 69:
Page 70 and 71:
Page 72 and 73:
Page 74 and 75:
Page 76 and 77:
Page 78 and 79:
Determinants of Risk: Exposure and
Page 80 and 81:
Page 82 and 83:
Page 84 and 85:
Page 86 and 87:
Page 88 and 89:
Page 90 and 91:
Page 92 and 93:
Page 94 and 95:
Page 96 and 97:
Page 98 and 99:
Page 100 and 101:
Page 102 and 103:
Page 104 and 105:
Page 106 and 107:
Page 108 and 109:
Page 110 and 111:
Page 112 and 113:
Page 114 and 115:
Page 116 and 117:
Page 118 and 119:
Page 120 and 121:
Page 122 and 123:
Changes in Climate Extremes and the
Page 124 and 125:
Page 126 and 127:
Page 128 and 129:
Page 130 and 131:
Page 132 and 133:
Page 134 and 135:
Page 136 and 137:
Page 138 and 139:
Page 140 and 141:
Page 142 and 143:
Page 144 and 145:
Page 146 and 147:
Page 148 and 149:
Page 150 and 151:
138much of the continental United S
Page 152 and 153:
Page 154 and 155:
Page 156 and 157:
Page 158 and 159:
Page 160 and 161:
Page 162 and 163:
Page 164 and 165:
Page 166 and 167:
Page 168 and 169:
Page 170 and 171:
Page 172 and 173:
Page 174 and 175:
Page 176 and 177:
Page 178 and 179:
Page 180 and 181:
Page 182 and 183:
Page 184 and 185:
Page 186 and 187:
Page 188 and 189:
Page 190 and 191:
Page 192 and 193:
Page 194 and 195:
Page 196 and 197:
Page 198 and 199:
Page 200 and 201:
Page 202 and 203:
Page 204 and 205:
Page 206 and 207:
Page 208 and 209:
Page 210 and 211:
Page 212 and 213:
Page 214 and 215:
Page 216 and 217:
Page 218 and 219:
Page 220 and 221:
Page 222 and 223:
Page 224 and 225:
Page 226 and 227:
Page 228 and 229:
Page 230 and 231:
Page 232 and 233:
Page 234 and 235:
Page 236 and 237:
Page 238 and 239:
Page 240 and 241:
Page 242 and 243:
Page 244 and 245:
Changes in Impacts of Climate Extre
Page 246 and 247:
Page 248 and 249:
Page 250 and 251:
Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255:
Page 256 and 257:
Page 258 and 259:
Page 260 and 261:
Page 262 and 263:
Page 264 and 265:
Page 266 and 267:
Page 268 and 269:
Page 270 and 271:
Page 272 and 273:
Page 274 and 275:
Page 276 and 277:
Page 278 and 279:
Page 280 and 281:
Page 282 and 283:
Page 284 and 285:
Page 286 and 287:
Page 288 and 289:
Page 290 and 291:
Page 292 and 293:
Page 294 and 295:
Page 296 and 297:
Page 298 and 299:
Page 300 and 301:
Page 302 and 303:
Page 304 and 305:
Managing the Risks from Climate Ext
Page 306 and 307:
Page 308 and 309:
Page 310 and 311:
Page 312 and 313:
Page 314 and 315:
Page 316 and 317:
Page 318 and 319:
Page 320 and 321:
Page 322 and 323:
Page 324 and 325:
Page 326 and 327:
Page 328 and 329:
Page 330 and 331:
Page 332 and 333:
Page 334 and 335:
Page 336 and 337:
Page 338 and 339:
Page 340 and 341:
Page 342 and 343:
Page 344 and 345:
Page 346 and 347:
Page 348 and 349:
Page 350 and 351:
Page 352 and 353:
National Systems for Managing the R
Page 354 and 355:
Page 356 and 357:
Page 358 and 359:
Page 360 and 361:
Page 362 and 363:
Page 364 and 365:
Page 366 and 367:
Page 368 and 369:
Page 370 and 371:
Page 372 and 373:
Page 374 and 375:
Page 376 and 377:
Page 378 and 379:
Page 380 and 381:
Page 382 and 383:
Page 384 and 385:
Page 386 and 387:
Page 388 and 389:
Page 390 and 391:
Page 392 and 393:
Page 394 and 395:
Page 396 and 397:
Page 398 and 399:
Page 400 and 401:
Page 402 and 403:
Page 404 and 405:
Page 406 and 407:
Managing the Risks: International L
Page 408 and 409:
Page 410 and 411:
Page 412 and 413:
Page 414 and 415:
Page 416 and 417:
Page 418 and 419:
Page 420 and 421:
Page 422 and 423:
Page 424 and 425:
Page 426 and 427:
Page 428 and 429:
Page 430 and 431:
Page 432 and 433: Managing the Risks: International L
Page 450 and 451: Toward a Sustainable and Resilient
Page 500 and 501: Case StudiesChapter 9Table of Conte
Page 502 and 503: Case StudiesChapter 99.1. Introduct
Page 504 and 505: Case StudiesChapter 9••••
Page 506 and 507: Case StudiesChapter 99.2.1.2.3. Hea
Page 508 and 509: Case StudiesChapter 9preparedness c
Page 510 and 511: Case StudiesChapter 99.2.2.5. Outco
Page 512 and 513: Case StudiesChapter 9practices at b
Page 514 and 515: Case StudiesChapter 9to implement s
Page 516 and 517: Case StudiesChapter 9lined by the w
Page 518 and 519: Case StudiesChapter 94.5 million af
Page 520 and 521: Case StudiesChapter 9are typically
Page 522 and 523: Case StudiesChapter 9heightens vuln
Page 524 and 525: Case StudiesChapter 9multi-hazard r
Page 526 and 527: Case StudiesChapter 9Bank, 2005b).
Page 528 and 529: Case StudiesChapter 9Some federal-l
Page 530 and 531: Case StudiesChapter 9develop in a m
Page 532 and 533:
Case StudiesChapter 9Most states ha
Page 534 and 535:
Case StudiesChapter 9reduction legi
Page 536 and 537:
Case StudiesChapter 9countries. Thr
Page 538 and 539:
Case StudiesChapter 99.2.14. Educat
Page 540 and 541:
Case StudiesChapter 9to be removed
Page 542 and 543:
Case StudiesChapter 9can help to ad
Page 544 and 545:
Case StudiesChapter 9CRED, 2009: EM
Page 546 and 547:
Case StudiesChapter 9Hallegatte, S.
Page 548 and 549:
Case StudiesChapter 9Linnerooth-Bay
Page 550 and 551:
Case StudiesChapter 9O’Neill, M.S
Page 552 and 553:
Case StudiesChapter 9Skaff, M. and
Page 554 and 555:
Case StudiesChapter 9Visser, R. and
Page 557 and 558:
ANNEXI Authors and Expert Reviewers
Page 559 and 560:
Annex IAuthors and Expert Reviewers
Page 561 and 562:
Page 563 and 564:
Page 565 and 566:
Page 567 and 568:
ANNEXIIGlossary of TermsThis annex
Page 569 and 570:
Annex IIGlossary of Termswater vapo
Page 571 and 572:
Annex IIGlossary of Termsdrought, a
Page 573 and 574:
Annex IIGlossary of TermsImpactsEff
Page 575 and 576:
Annex IIGlossary of Termsforcing is
Page 577 and 578:
ANNEXIIIAcronyms565
Page 579 and 580:
Annex IIIAcronymsNAMNAONAPANaTechND
Page 581 and 582:
ANNEXIVList of Major IPCC Reports56
Page 583 and 584:
Annex IVList of Major IPCC ReportsC
Page 585 and 586:
Index573
Page 587 and 588:
Indexresilience building, 378touris
Page 589 and 590:
IndexEM-DAT database, 364Emissions
Page 591 and 592:
Indextransformation and, 324See als
Page 593 and 594:
IndexRisk sharing, 10-11, 397, 523i
show all

IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?