IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access

Chapter 3Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentTable 3-3 (continued)A. North America and Central America (Continued)Regions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessE. NorthAmerica(ENA, 5)Alaska/N.W. Canada(ALA, 1)E. Canada,Greenland,Iceland(CGI, 2)CentralAmerica andMexico(CAM, 6)High confidence: WD very likely to increase andCD very likely to decrease in all seasons(Christensen et al., 2007; Karl et al., 2008;Clark et al., 2010; Fig. 3-3). Very likely increasein RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).Medium confidence: Largest WD increase insummer and fall; weaker CD decrease in spring(OS11). RCM simulations for 2030–2039consistent with projected long-term increase inWD (Diffenbaugh and Ashfaq, 2010).High confidence: WD very likely to increase andCD very likely to decrease (Christensen et al.,2007; Karl et al., 2008; Fig. 3-3). Very likelyincrease in RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).Medium confidence: Strongest increase in WDin the fall (OS11).High confidence: WD very likely to increase andCD very likely to decrease (Christensen et al.,2007; Karl et al., 2008; Fig. 3-3). Very likelyincrease in RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).Medium confidence: Strongest increase of WDin fall (in summer in Greenland), weakest inspring, weaker increase of CD in summer(OS11).High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease (Fig. 3-3). Likely increase inRV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WN very likely to increaseand CN very likely to decrease (T06;Christensen et al., 2007; Kharin et al., 2007;Meehl et al., 2007b; Karl et al., 2008; Fig. 3-4).Medium confidence: Largest WN increasesand CN decreases in summer (OS11).High confidence: WN very likely to increaseand CN very likely to decrease (T06;Christensen et al., 2007; Kharin et al., 2007;Meehl et al., 2007b; Karl et al., 2008; Fig. 3-4).High confidence: WN very likely to increaseand CN very likely to decrease (T06;Christensen et al., 2007; Kharin et al., 2007;Meehl et al., 2007b; Fig. 3-4).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: Likely more frequent,longer, and/or more intense heat waves andwarm spells (T06; Christensen et al., 2007;Meehl et al., 2007b; Karl et al., 2008; Clarket al., 2010; OS11)Medium confidence: RCM simulations for2030–2039 and 2090–2099 consistent withprojected long-term increase in frequency ofHW (Diffenbaugh and Ashfaq, 2010; Kunkelet al., 2010).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;Christensen et al., 2007; Meehl et al.,2007b; Karl et al., 2008; OS11).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;OS11).Medium confidence to high confidencedepending on region: Likely more frequent,longer, and/or more intense heat waves andwarm spells in most of the region; mediumconfidence in increase in warm spells in partof Central America, but lack of agreement insignal of change in heat waves (T06; OS11;Clark et al., 2010).Medium confidence: Increase in HPD/HPC innorthern part of domain but no signal orinconsistent signal in southern part (T06; Fig. 3-6).Medium confidence in increase in RV20HP (Fig. 3-7).High confidence: Likely increase in HPD and HPC(T06; Fig. 3-6). Likely increase of RV20HP (Fig. 3-7).High confidence: Likely increase in HPD and HPC(T06; Fig. 3-6). Likely increase of RV20HP (Fig. 3-7).Low confidence: Lack of agreement between modelsand indices regarding changes in %DP10, HPC,RV20HP, and other HP indicators (Kamiguchi et al.,2006; T06; Campbell et al., 2011; Figs. 3-6 and 3-7).Low confidence: Inconsistent signalin CDD, some consistent decrease inSMA (SW08b; Fig. 3-10).G R G G R G GLow confidence: Inconsistent signalin change of CDD and SMA (T06;SW08b; Fig. 3-10).G G G G GLow confidence: Inconsistent signalin CDD and/or SMA changes (T06;SW08b; Fig. 3-10).G G G G GLow confidence to mediumconfidence depending on region.Medium confidence: Increaseddryness (CDD, SMA) in CentralAmerica and Mexico; lowconfidence in change in dryness(CDD, SMA) in the extreme south ofregion due to inconsistent signal(Kamiguchi et al., 2006; T06;Campbell et al., 2011; Fig. 3-10).G G G G R G RContinued next page197