IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access

Changes in Impacts of Climate Extremes: Human Systems and EcosystemsChapter 4Table 4-3 | Estimated change in disaster losses in 2040 under projected climate change and exposure change, relative to 2000, from 21 impact studies including median estimatesby type of weather hazard. Source: Bouwer, 2010.A. Impact of projected climate changeStudy Hazard type RegionEstimated loss change [%] in 2040Min Max Mean MedianPielke (2007) Tropical storm Atlantic 58 1,365 417Nordhaus (2010) Tropical storm United States 12 92 47Narita et al. (2009) Tropical storm Global 23 130 46Hallegatte (2007) Tropical storm United States - - 22ABI (2005a,b) Tropical storm United States, Caribbean 19 46 3230ABI (2005a,b) Tropical storm Japan 20 45 30ABI (2009) Tropical storm China 9 19 14Schmidt et al. (2009) Tropical storm United States - - 9Bender et al. (2010) Tropical storm United States -27 36 14Narita et al. (2010) Extra-tropical storm High latitude -11 62 22Schwierz et al. (2010) Extra-tropical storm Europe 6 25 16Leckebusch et al. (2007) Extra-tropical storm United Kingdom, Germany -6 32 11ABI (2005a,b) Extra-tropical storm Europe - - 1415ABI (2009) Extra-tropical storm United Kingdom -33 67 15Dorland et al. (1999) Extra-tropical storm Netherlands 80 160 120Bouwer et al. (2010) River flooding Netherlands 46 201 124Feyen et al. (2009) River flooding Europe - - 83ABI (2009) River flooding United Kingdom 3 11 7Feyen et al. (2009) River flooding Spain (Madrid) - - 3665Schreider et al. (2000) Local flooding Australia 67 514 361Hoes (2007) Local flooding Netherlands 16 70 47B. Impact of projected exposure changeStudy Hazard type RegionEstimated loss change [%] in 2040Min Max Mean MedianPielke (2007) Tropical storm Atlantic 164 545 355Schmidt et al. (2009) Tropical storm United States - - 240Dorland et al. (1999) Extra-tropical storm Netherlands 12 93 50Bouwer et al. (2010) River flooding Netherlands 35 172 104172Feyen et al. (2009) River flooding Spain (Mad) - - 349Hoes (2007) Local flooding Netherlands -4 72 29(Crompton et al., 2011). See Section 4.5.3.3 on attribution and the useof a risk-based approach to cope with this issue. Other studies haveinvestigated impacts from increases in the frequency and intensity ofextratropical cyclones at high latitudes (Dorland et al., 1999; ABI,2005a, 2009; Narita et al., 2010; Schwierz et al., 2010; Donat et al.,2011). In general there is medium confidence that increases in lossesdue to extratropical cyclones will occur with climate change, withpossible decreases or no change in some areas. Projected increasesgenerally are slightly lower than increases in tropical cyclone losses (seeTable 4-3). Patt et al. (2010) projected future losses due to weather- andclimate-related extremes in least-developed countries.Many studies have addressed future economic losses from river floods,most of which are focused on Europe, including the United Kingdom(Hall et al., 2003, 2005; ABI, 2009), Spain (Feyen et al., 2009), and TheNetherlands (Bouwer et al., 2010) (see Table 4-3). Maaskant et al.(2009) is one of the few studies that addresses future loss of life fromflooding, and projects up to a four-fold increase in potential floodvictims in The Netherlands by the year 2040, when population growthis accounted for. Some studies are available on future coastal flood risks(Hall et al., 2005; Mokrech et al., 2008; Nicholls et al., 2008; Dawson etal., 2009; Hallegatte et al., 2010). Although future flood losses in manylocations will increase in the absence of additional protection measures(high agreement, medium evidence), the size of the estimated change ishighly variable, depending on location, climate scenarios used, andmethods used to assess impacts on river flow and flood occurrence (seeTable 4-3 for a comparison of some regional studies) (Bouwer, 2010).Some studies have addressed economic losses from other types ofweather extremes, often smaller-scale compared to river floods andcyclones. These include hail damage, for which mixed results are found:McMaster (1999) and Niall and Walsh (2005) found no significanteffect on hailstorm losses for Australia, while Botzen et al. (2010) find asignificant increase (up to 200% by 2050) for damages in the agriculturalsector in The Netherlands, although the approaches used varyconsiderably. Rosenzweig et al. (2002) report on a possible doublingof losses to crops due to excess soil moisture caused by more intenserainfall. Hoes (2007), Hoes and Schuurmans (2006), and Hoes et al.272