National Systems for <strong>Managing</strong> the <strong>Risks</strong> from <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Extreme</strong>s and DisastersChapter 6effectiveness. There is high agreement but limited evidence to suggestthat a business-as-usual approach to disaster risk management thatfails to take the impacts <strong>of</strong> climate change into account will becomeincreasingly ineffective. Section 6.6 and other parts <strong>of</strong> this chapterhave assessed evidence on the different elements involved in such arealignment. A selection <strong>of</strong> these elements is briefly summarized here.As discussed in Section 6.6.2, there is high agreement but limitedevidence to suggest that flexible and adaptive national systems fordisaster risk management, based on the principle <strong>of</strong> learning by doing,are better suited to managing the challenges posed by changes inexposure, vulnerability, and weather and climate extremes than staticand rigid systems (see Section 8.6). This ability to be flexible will betested by a systems’ capacity to act on new knowledge generated bythe frequent assessment <strong>of</strong> dynamic risk needed to capture trends inexposure vulnerability and weather and climate extremes and byinformation on how the costs and benefits <strong>of</strong> different response measureschange as a result (Section 6.6.1). The accuracy <strong>of</strong> these assessmentswill be based on the quality <strong>of</strong> available data (Section 6.5.2.1). Wheresuch assessments generate uncertainty for decisionmakers, tools suchas multi-criteria analysis, scenario planning, and flexible decision paths<strong>of</strong>fer ways <strong>of</strong> supporting informed action (Section 6.6.1).There is high agreement and robust evidence to demonstrate that themainstreaming <strong>of</strong> disaster risk management processes into developmentplanning and practice leads to more resilient development pathways. Byextension, with climate change and other development processes havingan impact on disaster risk, these changes then need to be factored intodevelopment and economic planning decisions at different scales. Thissuggests an ideal national system for managing the risks from climateextremes and disasters would be designed to be fully integrated witheconomic and social development, environmental, poverty reduction,and humanitarian dimensions to create a holistic approach. The nature<strong>of</strong> transformational changes in thinking, analysis, planning, approaches,strategies, and actions is the subject <strong>of</strong> Chapter 8 (particularly Section8.2.2).While there is limited evidence that some countries have begun to factorclimate change into the way disaster risks are assessed and managed(see Sections 6.3 and 6.6.1), few countries appear to have adopted acomprehensive approach – for example, by addressing projected changesin exposure, vulnerability, and extremes as well as adopting a learningby-doingapproach to decisionmaking embedded in the context <strong>of</strong>national development planning processes. Incremental efforts towardimplementing suitable strategies for mainstreaming climate changeresponses into national development planning and budgetary processes,and climate pro<strong>of</strong>ing at the sector and project levels (Sections 6.2 and6.3) in the context <strong>of</strong> disaster risk management appear to be the mostlikely approach adopted by many countries. None <strong>of</strong> these measures willbe easy to implement, as actors and stakeholders at all levels <strong>of</strong> societyare being asked to embrace a dynamic notion <strong>of</strong> risk as an inherent part<strong>of</strong> their decisions, and continuously learn and modify policies, decisions,and actions taking into account new traditional and scientific knowledgeas it emerges.The knowledge base for understanding changing climate-related disasterrisks and for the way national systems are acting on this understandingthrough modifying practices, altering the nature <strong>of</strong> relationshipsbetween different actors, and adopting new strategies and policies isfragmented and incomplete. As this chapter has illustrated, incompleteinformation and knowledge gaps do not need to present blockages toaction. As FAQ 6.1 and Section 6.3.1 highlight, there is considerableexperience <strong>of</strong> governments and other actors investing in measures torespond to existing climate variability and disaster risk that can beconsidered as ‘no or low regrets’ options when taking into account theuncertainty associated with future climate. However, in conducting thisassessment, some knowledge gaps have emerged that, if filled, wouldaid the creation <strong>of</strong> enduring national risk management systems fortackling observed and projected disaster risk. These gaps include theneed for more research on:• The extent to which efforts to build disaster risk managementcapacities at different scales prepare people and organizations forthe challenges posed by climate change.• Whether the current trend <strong>of</strong> decentralizing disaster risk managementfunctions to sub-national and local governments and communitiesis effective, given the level <strong>of</strong> information and capacity requirements,changing risks, and associated uncertainties presented by climatechange.• How the function, roles, and responsibilities <strong>of</strong> different actorsworking within national disaster risk management systems arechanging, given the impacts <strong>of</strong> climate change at the national andsub-national level.• The characteristics <strong>of</strong> flexibility, learning-by-doing, and adaptivemanagement in the context <strong>of</strong> national disaster risk managementsystems in different governance contexts.• How decisions on disaster risk management interventions are madeat different scales if there is limited context-specific information.• The costs and benefits <strong>of</strong> different risk management interventionsif the impacts <strong>of</strong> climate change and other dynamic drivers <strong>of</strong> riskare factored in.• The benefits and trade<strong>of</strong>fs <strong>of</strong> creating integrated programs andpolicies that seek to manage disaster risk, mitigate GHGs, adapt toclimate change, and reduce poverty simultaneously.380
Chapter 6National Systems for <strong>Managing</strong> the <strong>Risks</strong> from <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Extreme</strong>s and DisastersReferencesA digital library <strong>of</strong> non-journal-based literature cited in this chapter thatmay not be readily available to the public has been compiled as part <strong>of</strong>the <strong>IPCC</strong> review and drafting process, and can be accessed via either the<strong>IPCC</strong> Secretariat or <strong>IPCC</strong> Working Group II web sites.Aakre, S., I. Banaszak, R. Mechler, D. Rübbelke, A. Wreford, and H. Kalirai, 2010:Financial adaptation to disaster risk in the European Union. Mitigation andAdaptation Strategies for Global Change, 15(7), 721-736.ActionAid, 2006: <strong>Climate</strong> Change, Urban Flooding and the Rights <strong>of</strong> the Urban Poorin Africa: Key findings from six African cities. ActionAid International, London,UK and Johannesburg, South Africa.Adger, W.N., T.P. Hughes, C. 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I Foreword and Preface
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Case StudiesChapter 99.2.1.2.3. Hea
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Case StudiesChapter 9preparedness c
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Case StudiesChapter 99.2.2.5. Outco
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Case StudiesChapter 9practices at b
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Case StudiesChapter 9to implement s
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Case StudiesChapter 9lined by the w
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Case StudiesChapter 94.5 million af
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Case StudiesChapter 9are typically
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Case StudiesChapter 9heightens vuln
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Case StudiesChapter 9multi-hazard r
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Case StudiesChapter 9Bank, 2005b).
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Case StudiesChapter 9Some federal-l
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Case StudiesChapter 9develop in a m
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Case StudiesChapter 9Most states ha
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Case StudiesChapter 9reduction legi
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Case StudiesChapter 9countries. Thr
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Case StudiesChapter 99.2.14. Educat
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Case StudiesChapter 9to be removed
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Case StudiesChapter 9can help to ad
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Case StudiesChapter 9CRED, 2009: EM
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Case StudiesChapter 9Hallegatte, S.
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Case StudiesChapter 9Linnerooth-Bay
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Case StudiesChapter 9O’Neill, M.S
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Case StudiesChapter 9Skaff, M. and
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Case StudiesChapter 9Visser, R. and
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ANNEXI Authors and Expert Reviewers
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Annex IAuthors and Expert Reviewers
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Annex IAuthors and Expert Reviewers
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Annex IAuthors and Expert Reviewers
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Annex IAuthors and Expert Reviewers
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ANNEXIIGlossary of TermsThis annex
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Annex IIGlossary of Termswater vapo
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Annex IIGlossary of Termsdrought, a
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Annex IIGlossary of TermsImpactsEff
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Annex IIGlossary of Termsforcing is
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ANNEXIIIAcronyms565
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Annex IIIAcronymsNAMNAONAPANaTechND
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ANNEXIVList of Major IPCC Reports56
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Annex IVList of Major IPCC ReportsC
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Index573
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Indexresilience building, 378touris
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IndexEM-DAT database, 364Emissions
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Indextransformation and, 324See als
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IndexRisk sharing, 10-11, 397, 523i