<strong>Climate</strong> Change: New Dimensions in Disaster Risk, Exposure, Vulnerability, and ResilienceChapter 11.4.4. ‘No Regrets,’ Robust Adaptation, and LearningThe mismatch between adaptation strategies and projected needs hasbeen characterized as the potential for regret, that is, opportunity costsassociated with decisions (and related path dependence, wherein earlierchoices constrain future circumstances and decisions) that are optimalfor one or a small number <strong>of</strong> possible climate futures but not necessarilyrobust over a wider range <strong>of</strong> scenarios (Lempert and Schlesinger, 2001).‘No regrets’ adaptation refers to decisions that have net benefits overthe entire range <strong>of</strong> anticipated future climate and associated impacts(Callaway and Hellmuth, 2007; Heltberg et al., 2009).To address the challenge <strong>of</strong> risk management in the dynamicallycomplex context <strong>of</strong> climate change and development, as well as underconditions where probabilistic estimates <strong>of</strong> future climatic conditionsremain imprecise, several authors have advanced the concept <strong>of</strong>robustness (Wilby and Dessai, 2010), <strong>of</strong> which ‘no regrets’ adaptation isa special case (Lempert and Groves, 2010). Robustness is a property <strong>of</strong>a plan or strategy that performs well over a wide range <strong>of</strong> plausiblefuture scenarios even if it does not perform optimally in any particularscenario. Robust adaptation plans may perform relatively well even ifprobabilistic assessments <strong>of</strong> risk prove wrong because they aim toaddress both expected and surprising changes, and may allow diversestakeholders to agree on actions even if they disagree about values andexpectations (Brown and Lall, 2006; Dessai and Hulme; 2007; Lempertand Groves, 2010; Means et al., 2010; see also Section 1.3.2).As Section 1.4.3 highlights, currently, in many instances risks associatedwith extreme weather and other climate-sensitive hazards are <strong>of</strong>ten notwell managed. To be effective, adaptation would prioritize measuresthat increase current as well as future resilience to threats. Robustnessover time would increase if learning were a central pillar <strong>of</strong> adaptationefforts, including learning focused on addressing current vulnerabilitiesand enhancing current risk management (high confidence). Single-,double-, and triple-loop learning will all improve the efficacy <strong>of</strong>management strategies.The case studies in Chapter 9 highlight some important examples <strong>of</strong>learning in disaster risk management relevant to a wide range <strong>of</strong> climatesensitivethreats and a variety <strong>of</strong> sectors. Section 9.2 provides examples<strong>of</strong> how single- and double-loop learning processes – enhancing publichealth response capacity, augmenting early warning systems, andapplying known strategies for protecting health from the threat <strong>of</strong>extreme heat in new settings – had demonstrable impacts on heatrelatedmortality, quickly shifting a region’s coping range with regard toextreme heat (Section 9.2.1). Other case studies, examining risk transfer(Section 9.2.13) and early warning systems (Section 9.2.11), provideinstances <strong>of</strong> how existing methods and tools can be modified anddeployed in new settings in response to changing risk pr<strong>of</strong>iles – examples<strong>of</strong> both double- and triple-loop learning. Similarly, the case studies ongovernance (Section 9.2.12) and on the limits to adaptation in smallisland developing states (Section 9.2.9) provide examples <strong>of</strong> third-looplearning and transformative approaches to disaster risk management.ReferencesA digital library <strong>of</strong> non-journal-based literature cited in this chapter thatmay not be readily available to the public has been compiled as part <strong>of</strong>the <strong>IPCC</strong> review and drafting process, and can be accessed via either the<strong>IPCC</strong> Secretariat or <strong>IPCC</strong> Working Group II web sites.ACC, 2010: Informing an Effective Response to <strong>Climate</strong> Change. America’s <strong>Climate</strong>Choices, National Academies Press, Washington, DC.Adger, W.N., 1996: Approaches to Vulnerability to <strong>Climate</strong> Change. CSERGE WorkingPapers. 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Toward a Sustainable and Resilient
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Case StudiesChapter 9Table of Conte
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Case StudiesChapter 99.1. Introduct
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Case StudiesChapter 9••••
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Case StudiesChapter 9multi-hazard r
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Case StudiesChapter 9to be removed
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Case StudiesChapter 9CRED, 2009: EM
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Case StudiesChapter 9Hallegatte, S.
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Case StudiesChapter 9Linnerooth-Bay
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Case StudiesChapter 9O’Neill, M.S
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Case StudiesChapter 9Skaff, M. and
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Case StudiesChapter 9Visser, R. and
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ANNEXI Authors and Expert Reviewers
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Annex IAuthors and Expert Reviewers
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ANNEXIIGlossary of TermsThis annex
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Annex IIGlossary of Termswater vapo
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Annex IIGlossary of Termsdrought, a
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Annex IIGlossary of TermsImpactsEff
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Annex IIGlossary of Termsforcing is
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ANNEXIIIAcronyms565
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Annex IIIAcronymsNAMNAONAPANaTechND
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ANNEXIVList of Major IPCC Reports56
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Annex IVList of Major IPCC ReportsC
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Index573
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Indexresilience building, 378touris
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IndexEM-DAT database, 364Emissions
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Indextransformation and, 324See als
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IndexRisk sharing, 10-11, 397, 523i