IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access

Chapter 3Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentTable 3-3 (continued)B. Europe and Mediterranean Region (Continued)Regions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessS. Europe andMediterranean(MED, 13)High confidence: Very likely increase infrequency and intensity of WD (Fischer andSchär, 2009, 2010; Giannakopoulos et al.,2009; Fig. 3-3) and decrease in CD (Fig. 3-4).Very likely increase in RV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: Number of days withcombined hot summer days (>35°C) andtropical nights (>20°C) very likely to increase(Fischer and Schär, 2010).Medium confidence: Changes in higherquantiles of Tmax greater than changes inlower quantiles of Tmax in summer(Diffenbaugh et al., 2007; Kjellström et al.,2007; Fischer and Schär, 2009, 2010; OS11).High confidence: CN very likely to decrease(Goubanova and Li, 2007; Kjellström et al.,2007; Sillmann and Roeckner, 2008).High confidence: WN very likely to increase(T06; Sillmann and Roeckner, 2008;Giannakopoulos et al., 2009; Fig. 3-4).High confidence: Tropical nights very likely toincrease (Sillmann and Roeckner, 2008).Number of days with combined hot summerdays (>35°C) and tropical nights (>20°C)very likely to increase (Fischer and Schär,2010).Medium confidence: Changes in higherquantiles of Tmin generally greater thanchanges in lower quantiles of Tmin insummer in the Mediterranean (Diffenbaughet al., 2007; OS11).High confidence: Likely more frequentand/or longer heat waves and warm spells(also increases in intensity); likely largestincreases in S.W., S., and E. (Beniston et al.,2007; Diffenbaugh et al., 2007; Koffi andKoffi, 2008; Giannakopoulos et al., 2009;Clark et al., 2010; Fischer and Schär, 2010;OS11).Low confidence: Inconsistent change in HP intensityand %D10, depends on region and season; increasein HP intensity in all seasons except summer overparts of the region, but decrease in other parts, e.g.,Iberian Peninsula (T06; Goubanova and Li, 2007;Giorgi and Lionello, 2008; Giannakopoulos et al.,2009; Fig. 3-6). Low confidence in changes inRV20HP (Fig. 3-7).Medium confidence: Increase indryness (CDD, SMA) inMediterranean (T06; Beniston et al.,2007; SW08b; Sillmann andRoeckner, 2008; Giannakopoulos etal., 2009; Fig. 3-10). Consistentincrease in area of drought (Burkeand Brown, 2008).G R G R G R G R G RC. AfricaRegions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessAll AfricaW. Africa(WAF, 15)E. Africa(EAF, 16)S. Africa(SAF, 17)Sahara(SAH, 14)High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease in all regions (Fig. 3-3). Likelyincrease in RV20AHD in all regions (Fig. 3-5).Medium confidence: Increase in WD largest insummer and fall (OS11).High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease (Fig. 3-3). Likely increase inRV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease (Fig. 3-3). Likely increase inRV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease (Fig. 3-3). Likely increase inRV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WD likely to increase and CDlikely to decrease (Fig. 3-3). Likely increase inRV20AHD (Fig. 3-5).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Kharin et al., 2007; Fig. 3-4) and CN likely todecrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: WN likely to increase (T06;Fig. 3-4) and CN likely to decrease (Fig. 3-4).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;OS11).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;OS11).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;OS11).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;OS11).High confidence: Likely more frequent and/orlonger heat waves and warm spells (T06;OS11).Low confidence to high confidence depending onregion: Inconsistent change or no signal in HPindicators across much of continent (T06; Fig. 3-6,Fig. 3-7). Strongest and most consistent signal islikely increase in HP in E. Africa (T06; Figs. 3-6 and3-7; Shongwe et al., 2011).G G G G GLow confidence to medium confidence dependingon subregion: Medium confidence in slight or nochange in HP indicators in most of region; Lowconfidence due to low model agreement in northernpart of region (T06; Figs. 3-6 and 3-7).High confidence: Likely increase in HP indicators(T06; Fig. 3-6; Fig. 3-7; Shongwe et al., 2011).Low confidence: Lack of agreement/signal in %DP10and other HP indicators for the region as a whole(T06; Fig. 3-6). Some model agreement in increase inRV20HP (Fig. 3-7). Some evidence of increased HPintensity in the S.E. (Hewitson and Crane, 2006;Rocha et al., 2008; Shongwe et al., 2009).Low confidence: Low agreement/no signal in%DP10, RV20HP, and other HP indicators (T06;Figs. 3-6 and 3-7).Low confidence to mediumconfidence depending on region: Lowconfidence in most regions, mediumconfidence of increase in dryness(CDD, SMA) in southern Africa excepteastern part (T06; SW08b; Fig. 3-10).Low confidence: Inconsistent signalof change in CDD and SMA (T06;Fig. 3-10).G G G G GMedium confidence: Decreasingdryness in large part of region,especially based on change in SMA,and partly also in CDD (T06; Fig. 3-10; Shongwe et al., 2011).G G G G GMedium confidence: Increase indryness (CDD, SMA), except easternpart (T06; Shongwe et al., 2009; Fig.3-10). Consistent increase in area ofdrought (Burke and Brown, 2008).G G G G GLow confidence: Inconsistent signalof change in CDD and SMA (T06;Fig. 3-10).G G G G GContinued next page199