IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access

Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentChapter 350201053W. Asia - 192046−65 2081−005050201053S. Asia - 232046−65 2081−0050201053S.E. Asia - 242046−65 2081−0050201053N. Australia - 252046−65 2081−00S. Australia/New Zealand - 26502010532046−65 2081−0050Central 50%intermodel rangeFull model range2010Scenarios:B1 A1B A2MedianReturn period (Years)2.453502010S. Europe/Mediterranean - 135020105020102046−65 2081−005020102046−65 2081−00201053C. Asia - 205020102046−65 2081−0053N. Asia - 182046−65 2081−0050201053Tibetan Plateau - 212046−65 2081−005020105353502010W. Africa - 155353Sahara - 142046−65 2081−00S. Africa - 1750201053E. Africa - 162046−65 2081−00E. Asia - 222046−65 2081−0064562046−65 2081−00535020102046−65 2081−0053C. Europe - 122046−65 2081−005020105353502010Alaska/N.W. Canada - 1W. North America - 32046−65 2081−00502010W. Coast South America - 9502010535020102046−65 2081−00502010S.E. South America - 1053502010N. Europe - 112046−65 2081−005361575350201053C. North America - 42046−65 2081−00Central America/Mexico - 62046−65 2081−005353502010E. North America - 52046−65 2081−00Amazon - 72046−65 2081−00E. Canada/Greenl./Icel. - 2502010532046−65 2081−002.4532046−65 2081−0053N.E. Brazil - 82046−65 2081−00532046−65 2081−00LegendGlobe (Land only)502010532046−65 2081−00Figure 3-7b | Projected return period (in years) of late 20th century 20-year return values of annual maximum 24-hour precipitation rates. The bar plots (see legend for more information) show results for regionally averaged projectionsfor two time horizons, 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2100, as compared to the late 20th century (1981-2000), and for three different SRES emission scenarios (B1, A1B, A2). Results are based on 14 GCMs contributing to the CMIP3. SeeFigure 3-1 for defined extent of regions. The ‘Globe’ analysis (inset box) displays the projected return period (in years) of late 20th-century 20-year return values of annual maximum 24-hour precipitation rates computed using all landgrid points. Adapted from the analysis of Kharin et al. (2007). For more details, see Appendix 3.A.146