IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access

Chapter 3Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentTable 3-2 (continued)E. Asia (Continued)Regions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm SpellsHeavy Precipitation DrynessCentral Asia(CAS, 20)E. Asia(EAS, 22)S.E. Asia(SEA, 24)S. Asia(SAS, 23)W. Asia(WAS, 19)TibetanPlateau(TIB, 21)High confidence: Likely increases in WD, likelydecreases in CD (Alexander et al., 2006).High confidence: Likely increases in WD, likelydecreases in CD (Alexander et al., 2006; Ding etal., 2010).Medium confidence: Increases in WD, decreasesin CD in northern part of domain (Alexander etal., 2006).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence for MalayArchipelago.Medium confidence: Increase in WD anddecrease in CD (Alexander et al., 2006).High confidence: More likely than not decreasein CD and very likely increase in WD(Rahimzadeh et al., 2009; Rehman, 2010).High confidence: Likely increase in WD and likelydecrease in CD (Alexander et al., 2006).High confidence: Likely decreases in CN,likely increases in WN (Alexander et al.,2006).Medium confidence: Decreases in CN,increases in WN (Alexander et al., 2006).Medium confidence: Decreases in CN,increases in WN in northern part of domain.(Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence forMalay Archipelago.Medium confidence: Decreases in CN,increases in WN (Alexander et al., 2006).High confidence: Likely decrease in CN andlikely increase in WN (Rehman, 2010).High confidence: Likely decreases in CN,likely increases in WN (Alexander et al.,2006).Medium confidence: WSDI increase in afew areas, insufficient evidenceelsewhere (Alexander et al., 2006).Medium confidence: Increase in warmseason heat waves in China (Ding et al.,2010); increase in WSDI in northernChina, but decline in southern China(Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence: Spatially varying trends.Increase in a few areas, decrease in a fewareas (Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence: Spatially varying trends.Increase in a few areas, decrease in a fewareas (Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence. Low confidence: Spatially varying trendsand partial lack of evidence. Some areasincrease, some areas decrease (Alexanderet al., 2006).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence. Low confidence: Mixed signal in India(Alexander et al., 2006).Medium confidence: WSDI increase(Alexander et al., 2006).Low confidence: Spatially varying trends(Alexander et al., 2006).Medium confidence: Decrease in heavyprecipitation events (Kwarteng et al., 2009;Rahimzadeh et al., 2009).Low confidence: Spatially varying trends indryness (SMA, PDSI, CDD); partial lack ofcoverage in some studies (Alexander et al.,2006; Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai,2011).Medium confidence: Overall tendency forincreased dryness (SMA, PDSI, CDD); fewareas with opposite trends (Alexander et al.,2006; Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai,2011).Low confidence: Spatially varying trends,inconsistent trends in dryness (SMA, PDSI)between studies (Sheffield and Wood,2008a; Dai, 2011).Low confidence: Inconsistent signal fordifferent studies and indices. Decrease inCDD over India (Alexander et al., 2006).Increased dryness (SMA, PDSI) in centralIndia (Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai,2011).Low confidence: Lack of studies for part ofthe region; mixed results (Sheffield andWood, 2008a; Rahimzadeh et al., 2009).Low confidence: Insufficient evidence. Low confidence: Lack of studies. Tendencyto decreased dryness (PDSI, SMA) in Dai(2011).F. Australia/New ZealandRegions TmaxTmin Heat Waves / Warm Spells Heavy PrecipitationDrynessAll Australiaand NewZealandN. Australia(NAU, 25)S. Australia/New Zealand(SAU, 26)High confidence: Overall likely increases in WD,likely decreases in CD. See individual regionalentries for assessment basis and details.High confidence: Likely increases in WD, likelydecreases in CD. Weaker trends in northwest(Alexander et al., 2006).High confidence: Very likely increases in WD,very likely decreases in CD (Alexander et al.,2006). NZ positive trends vary across country,related to circulation changes (Chambers andGriffiths, 2008; Mullan et al., 2008).High confidence: Overall likely decreases inCN, likely increases in WN. See individualregional entries for assessment basis anddetails.High confidence: Likely decreases in CN,likely increases in WN (Alexander et al.,2006; Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).High confidence: Very likely decreases inCN, very likely increases in WN (Alexanderet al., 2006; Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).General decrease in frosts in NZ but trendsvary across country, related to circulationchanges (Chambers and Griffiths, 2008;Mullan et al., 2008).Low confidence to medium confidencedepending on region: See individualregional entries for assessment basisand details.Low confidence: Insufficient literaturefor assessment.Medium confidence: Increase in warmspells across southern Australia(Alexander and Arblaster, 2009).Low confidence to high confidencedepending on region: Insufficient studiesfor assessment in N. Australia, likelydecrease in HP in many areas in S.Australia. See individual regional entries forassessment basis and details.Low confidence: Insufficient studies forassessment.High confidence: Likely decrease in heavyprecipitation in many areas, especiallywhere mean precipitation has decreased(CSIRO, 2007; Gallant et al., 2007;Alexander and Arblaster, 2009). NZ trendsare positive in western N. and S. Islandsand negative in east of country, and arestrongly correlated with changes in meanrainfall (Mullan et al., 2008).Medium confidence: Some regions withdryness decreases, others with drynessincreases. See individual regional entries forassessment basis and details.Medium confidence: Decrease in dryness(SMA, PDSI) in northwest since mid-20thcentury (Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai,2011).Medium confidence: Increase in dryness(SMA, PDSI, CDD) in southeastern part andsouthwestern tip of Australia since mid-20thcentury. Decrease in dryness in central partof Australia (Alexander et al., 2006;Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai, 2011).195