IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access

Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentChapter 32010521Alaska/N.W. Canada - 12046−65 2081−0020Central 50%intermodel rangeFull model range10521Scenarios:2046−65 2081−00B1 A1B A2LegendMedianReturn period (Years)223124232010521W. North America - 32046−65 2081−002010521C. North America - 42046−65 2081−00Central America/Mexico - 620105212046−65 2081−0020105212010521E. Canada/Greenl./Icel. - 220105212046−65 2081−00E. North America - 52046−65 2081−00Amazon - 72046−65 2081−00W. Coast South America - 920105212046−65 2081−0020105212010521S.E. South America - 102046−65 2081−00N.E. Brazil - 82046−65 2081−002010521C. Europe - 122046−65 2081−00S. Europe/Mediterranean - 1320105212046−65 2081−0020105212010521W. Africa - 152046−65 2081−0020105212010521Sahara - 142046−65 2081−00N. Europe - 112046−65 2081−002010S. Africa - 1752120105212046−65 2081−00W. Asia - 192046−65 2081−00E. Africa - 162046−65 2081−00201052120105212046−65 2081−002010521C. Asia - 20S. Asia - 232046−65 2081−00N. Asia - 182046−65 2081−002010521Tibetan Plateau - 212046−65 2081−0020105212046−65 2081−002010S.E. Asia - 24521N. Australia - 252046−65 2081−002010521E. Asia - 222046−65 2081−00S. Australia/New Zealand - 2620105212046−65 2081−00Globe (Land only)20105212046−65 2081−00Figure 3-5b | Projected return period (in years) of late 20th-century 20-year return values of the annual maximum of the daily maximum temperature. The bar plots (see legend for more information) show results for regionallyaveraged projections for two time horizons, 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2100, as compared to the late 20th century (1981-2000), and for three different SRES emission scenarios (B1, A1B, A2). Results are based on 12 GCMscontributing to the CMIP3. See Figure 3-1 for defined extent of regions. The ‘Globe’ analysis (inset box) displays the projected return period (in years) of late 20th-century 20-year return values of the annual maximum of the dailymaximum temperature computed using all land grid points. Adapted from the analysis of Kharin et al. (2007). For more details, see Appendix 3.A.140