IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access
IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access
IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access
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Changes in <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Extreme</strong>s and their Impacts on the Natural Physical EnvironmentChapter 3Table <strong>of</strong> ContentsExecutive Summary .................................................................................................................................1113.1. Weather and <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Events</strong> Related to Disasters ..................................................................1153.1.1. Categories <strong>of</strong> Weather and <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Events</strong> Discussed in this Chapter ...........................................................................1153.1.2. Characteristics <strong>of</strong> Weather and <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Events</strong> Relevant to Disasters ...........................................................................1153.1.3. Compound (Multiple) <strong>Events</strong>............................................................................................................................................1183.1.4. Feedbacks.........................................................................................................................................................................1183.1.5. Confidence and Likelihood <strong>of</strong> Assessed Changes in <strong>Extreme</strong>s........................................................................................1203.1.6. Changes in <strong>Extreme</strong>s and Their Relationship to Changes in Regional and Global Mean <strong>Climate</strong>..................................1213.1.7. Surprises / Abrupt <strong>Climate</strong> Change..................................................................................................................................1223.2. Requirements and Methods for Analyzing Changes in <strong>Extreme</strong>s............................................1223.2.1. Observed Changes............................................................................................................................................................1223.2.2. The Causes behind the Changes ......................................................................................................................................1253.2.3. Projected Long-Term Changes and Uncertainties............................................................................................................1283.3. Observed and Projected Changes in Weather and <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Extreme</strong>s .....................................1333.3.1. Temperature .....................................................................................................................................................................1333.3.2. Precipitation.....................................................................................................................................................................1413.3.3. Wind .................................................................................................................................................................................1493.4. Observed and Projected Changes inPhenomena Related to Weather and <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Extreme</strong>s..........................................................1523.4.1. Monsoons .........................................................................................................................................................................1523.4.2. El Niño-Southern Oscillation............................................................................................................................................1553.4.3. Other Modes <strong>of</strong> Variability...............................................................................................................................................1573.4.4. Tropical Cyclones..............................................................................................................................................................1583.4.5. Extratropical Cyclones......................................................................................................................................................1633.5. Observed and Projected Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment.................................1673.5.1. Droughts...........................................................................................................................................................................1673.5.2. Floods...............................................................................................................................................................................1753.5.3. <strong>Extreme</strong> Sea Levels ..........................................................................................................................................................1783.5.4. Waves ...............................................................................................................................................................................1803.5.5. Coastal Impacts................................................................................................................................................................1823.5.6. Glacier, Geomorphological, and Geological Impacts .......................................................................................................1863.5.7. High-latitude Changes Including Permafrost...................................................................................................................1893.5.8. Sand and Dust Storms......................................................................................................................................................190References ...............................................................................................................................................203Boxes and Frequently Asked QuestionsBox 3-1. Definition and Analysis <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Extreme</strong>s in the Scientific Literature .......................................................................116FAQ 3.1. Is the <strong>Climate</strong> Becoming More <strong>Extreme</strong>? ........................................................................................................................124FAQ 3.2. Has <strong>Climate</strong> Change Affected Individual <strong>Extreme</strong> <strong>Events</strong>? .............................................................................................127Box 3-2. Variations in Confidence in Projections <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> Change: Mean versus <strong>Extreme</strong>s, Variables, Scale ...........................132Box 3-3. The Definition <strong>of</strong> Drought................................................................................................................................................167Box 3-4. Small Island States...........................................................................................................................................................184Supplementary MaterialAppendix 3.A: Notes and Technical Details on Chapter 3 Figures................................................................................Available On-Line110