IPCC_Managing Risks of Extreme Events.pdf - Climate Access

Managing the Risks: International Level and Integration across ScalesChapter 7a strategy, to an implementation plan and that there was an absence ofa results-based framework, thus making it difficult to measure resultsfrom input to output (DFID, 2011, p. 211).UNISDR responded to the assessment by noting that the criticisms werealso reflected in a UN audit as well as in an external evaluation requestedby UNISDR in 2009, and that changes had now been incorporated in amanagement-reform work program (UNISDR, 2011c).Whatever method is adopted to monitor progress with risk reductionand climate change adaptation (internal or external, self-assessment orpeer review), the implicit problems faced in the measurement of DRRand CCA before a disaster event must be recognized. It is not easy, evenwith detailed objective scientific measurement, to accurately determinewhether a given structural or non-structural measure will actuallyprovide the necessary level of protection to people and property underextreme hazard loads. Structural tests can be carried out and simulationexercises can be usefully conducted to test warning systems or theeffectiveness of preparedness, but at best such performance tests canonly approximate disaster reality. The ultimate test of DRR and CCAapplications will inevitably need to await the impact of the next disaster.But this limitation does not remove the requirement to monitor andmeasure progress in an objective scientific manner to the upper limitsof existing knowledge (Davis, 2004).7.3.2. The United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change7.3.2.1. Evolution and DescriptionThe UNFCCC is a multilateral treaty aimed at addressing climate change.Its ultimate objective as stated in Article 2 is (UN, 1992; see alsoOppenheimer and Petsonk, 2005):“to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in theatmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenicinterference with the climate system. Such a level should be achievedwithin a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturallyto climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatenedand to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainablemanner.”The UNFCCC was negotiated from February 1991 to May 1992, andopened for signature at the UN Conference on Environment andDevelopment in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. It entered into force on 21March 1994, and since 1995 the Conference of the Parties (COP) to theUNFCCC has met in yearly sessions. The rules, institutions, and proceduresof the UNFCCC have been described in detail elsewhere (e.g., Yamin andDepledge, 2004; Bodansky, 2005). The development of adaptation as apriority under the UNFCCC has been analyzed by Schipper (2006).A major thrust of the UNFCCC and subsequent negotiations about itsimplementation concerns the mitigation of climate change: all policiesand measures aimed at reducing the emission of greenhouse gases suchas carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), or at retaining and capturing them in sinkssuch as forests, oceans, and underground reservoirs. As mentioned bySchipper (2006), adaptation to climate change was initially given littlepriority, although it is subject to various commitments in the UNFCCC(see Box 7-1). When taken together, these commitments acknowledgethe systematic nature of climate change risks and the relevance of theprinciples of economic efficiency, solidarity, and subsidiarity in adaptation.The Kyoto Protocol, agreed at COP3 in 1997 and in force since 2005,sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the EuropeanUnion for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 5%compared to 1990 over the five year period 2008-2012. Adaptation isall but absent in the Kyoto Protocol, with two exceptions. Article 10(b)specifies that Parties shall formulate, implement, publish, and regularlyupdate national and, where appropriate, regional programs containingmeasures to mitigate climate change and measures to facilitate adequateadaptation to climate change. Article 12.8, on the Clean DevelopmentMechanism, provides the basis of what later became the AdaptationFund (see Section 7.4.2).7.3.2.2. Status of ImplementationThere is to date no overall assessment of progress on adaptation underthe UNFCCC in the way that the UNISDR has assessed progress underthe HFA in the GARs. However, Parties to the UNFCCC are required tosubmit National Communications on their activities toward implementingthe UNFCCC, including adaptation. There is no common reportingtemplate so reports vary widely in content, making aggregation orcomparison problematic. The annual sessions of the COP also allowcountries to assess their progress toward meeting their commitmentsunder the UNFCCC, and to negotiate and adopt new decisions for furtherimplementation. By June 2011, there were 195 Parties to the UNFCCC:194 countries and one regional economic integration organization (theEuropean Union).During the 1990s, adaptation received little attention in the UNFCCCnegotiations, reflecting a similarly low level of attention to adaptationfrom the academic community at the time (Burton et al., 2002). The profilewas raised in 2001 with the publication of the IPCC Third AssessmentReport, which contained the chapter ‘Adaptation to Climate Change inthe Context of Sustainable Development and Equity’ (Smit et al., 2001).Also in 2001, COP7 adopted a decision (5/CP.7) that outlined a range ofactivities that would promote adaptation in developing countries,including the preparation of National Adaptation Programmes of Action(NAPAs) by least-developed countries. To this end, COP7 establishedthree funds with which adaptation in developing countries could besupported, namely the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF), theSpecial Climate Change Fund (SCCF), and the Strategic Priority ‘Pilotingan Operational Approach to Adaptation’ (SPA) under the Trust Fund ofthe Global Environment Facility (GEF). In addition, COP7 took the firststeps toward making operational the Adaptation Fund (Huq, 2002;406