2011 report to congress - U.S.-China Economic and Security Review ...

dkrause on DSKHT7XVN1PROD with $$_JOB122There are some experts, however, who believe that China’s middleclass is a potential force for instability and that its memberswill likely challenge the CCP in the coming years. Commission witnessElizabeth Economy observed that China’s middle class is nowmore willing to work to prevent the government from threateningtheir quality of life:In the past few years, the urban middle class has demonstrateda newfound willingness to advance its intereststhrough protest. In addition, the Internet has become a virtualpolitical system with individual complaints able to goviral in a matter of minutes, gaining widespread popularsupport across gender, age, profession, and provincialboundaries. 496Middle-class protests in recent years have covered a variety ofissues, including objections over a garbage incinerator being builtin close proximity to middle-class homes, destruction of homeswithout proper compensation in the lead-up to the World Expo,concern over the environmental impacts of the extension of Maglevlines, and pollution concerns over the construction of a chemicalplant. The majority of middle-class protests centered on issues thatwould adversely impact members’ health and/or property value.According to a survey by China’s Academy of Social Sciences, themiddle class is also the most likely group in China’s social stratumto be critical of the present social and political situation and is theleast confident of the government’s performance. 497 However, themiddle classes’ higher levels of criticism and uncertainty about theparty’s abilities do not necessarily mean that they are the groupwith the most potential to destabilize the government. Protestsamong the middle class remain small in frequency and size, andgovernment officials have acted quickly in redressing issues thathave attracted significant middle-class anger. As a result, it seemslikely that should the CCP continue to sustain healthy economicgrowth for the country and citizens remain optimistic about the futureand see potential for upward mobility, the middle class willcontinue to be a force for stability for the current regime.China’s ‘‘Aging’’ ProblemAlthough not as immediate a problem as inflation or mass unrest,China’s aging population and stagnant population growthcould act as a brake on the economy and an impediment to thegrowth of a middle class. The Chinese labor force, so crucial to themanufacturing sector, is due to start shrinking in 2016. 498 In addition,as the average age of the population increases, there will befewer workers supporting more retirees.Much of the demographic change is due to China’s one-child policy,which was instituted in 1980. The policy prevented 400 millionbirths, which would have pegged China’s population at 1.73 billionby now, according to the National Population and Family PlanningCommission, which administers the program. 499 The populationover age 60 is now 13.3 percent of the total, up from 10.3 percentin 2000. Those under age 14 now make up 16.6 percent of the population,down from 23 percent in 2001. One solution is to raise theretirement age, but that would not be popular with those grad-VerDate Nov 24 2008 13:46 Nov 10, 2011 Jkt 067464 PO 00000 Frm 00134 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 G:\GSDD\USCC\2011\067464.XXX 067464