2011 report to congress - U.S.-China Economic and Security Review ...

dkrause on DSKHT7XVN1PROD with $$_JOBSECTION 3: THE IMPLICATIONS OFCHINA’S CIVIL AND MILITARYSPACE ACTIVITIESIntroductionDecades of high prioritization and steady investment from Chineseleaders, coupled with incremental indigenous achievements byChinese scientists and engineers, place China among the top spacepowers in the world today.* Qualitatively, China’s space industriesnow produce state-of-the-art systems for certain applications, suchas guided weapons that use space assets for targeting. Quantitatively,numerous active programs continue to increase China’sinventory of satellites and other space assets. China’s capabilitiesstill generally lag behind those of the United States, Russia, andperhaps other nations by some measures. But of note, particularlyas many nations’ space programs proceed with relatively modestgoals, China’s civil and military space programs are in the ascendancy,in some cases on a steep trajectory.Commission research and hearings held over the past year foundthat the implications of this trend for the United States and therest of the world depend considerably on how the Chinese governmentseeks to use its increasingly robust space capabilities. Officialstatements emphasize reasonable and nonthreatening goals: prestige,scientific experimentation, exploration, and the attendantcommercial and economic benefits. However, the substantial rolethe People’s Liberation Army (PLA) plays in most facets of China’sspace activities demonstrates their heavily military orientation.Notwithstanding the inherently dual-use nature of many space activities,programmatic decisions such as concerted investment incounterspace technologies also indicate the centrality of militaryobjectives. This raises questions about the Chinese government’swillingness to be a responsible actor in the space domain. Threatsto space infrastructure, particularly massive, orbital debris-creatingevents like the PLA’s 2007 antisatellite demonstration (discussedbelow), have the potential to deny the benefits of space activitiesand technologies to the entire international community.Basic FeaturesChina’s space capabilities are advancing on several fronts. Informationabout China’s current, space-related infrastructure illus-* Although subjective, space program capabilities and expenditure levels suggest that the term‘‘space powers’’ would also include the United States, Russia, Japan, and the European Union.For figures, see The Space Foundation, ‘‘The Space Report 2011’’ (Colorado Springs, CO: 2011).p. 42; and Union of Concerned Scientists, ‘‘UCS Satellite Database (through 4/30/11)’’(Cambridge, MA: 2011). http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclearlweaponslandlgloballsecurity/spacelweapons/technicallissues/ucs-satellite-database.html.(198)VerDate Nov 24 2008 13:46 Nov 10, 2011 Jkt 067464 PO 00000 Frm 00210 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 G:\GSDD\USCC\2011\067464.XXX 067464