Economic Report of the President

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Chart 5Prices Received by Farmers1967=100260_ ALL FARMPRODUCTS220I180r\ A /V V 1970 80 V *^140I_1960-70100SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.>ffi^7ffT^hT^| I ln.nl I.....I.....I IM.MI I1960-1980 MONTHLYChart 6Relative Food PricesRATIOV1.21SEASONALLY ADJUSTED9 lifl tilifilitiT1947 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980OF IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR FOOD TO IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FORALL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.116
proportion of the existing farms produced most of the Nation's foodand fiber. In 1940, when there were more than six million farms, thelargest 2 percent accounted for about 25 percent of all sales. By 1980less than half as many large farms accounted for nearly 40 percent ofall sales.EXPANDING AGRICULTURAL EXPORTSPerhaps the most significant change in American agriculture duringthe seventies, however, was the huge expansion in exports. Grain exportstripled in volume, while the dollar value of all agricultural exportsincreased nearly sixfold. But this growth in value and volumecame with increased volatility in prices and production.The present competitive advantage of U.S. agriculture is impressive.In the 1960s, exports represented 14 percent of total farm cashreceipts; in 1980, cash receipts from exports represented nearly 30percent of the total (Table 12). To accommodate the increase inexport volume, the amount of land devoted to the production ofcrops for export nearly doubled. Transport systems and storage facilitieshave been pushed to their limits at times. Nonetheless, agriculturalexports have not increased their share of total U.S. exports.Since the end of World War II, agriculture's share of total exportshas remained at approximately 20 percent.TABLE 12.— The role of agricultural exports, 1930-80[Calendar years]1980 2 40,50019.3Agricultural exportsPeriodValue(millions ofAs percent ofdollars) 1 all exports1930-3978530.61940-491950-59 ...2,2943,59322.522.31960-691970-79 ..5,86419,66821.620.5197619771978197922,99723,63629,38434,74520.319.920.819.51 F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value.2 Estimates.Sources: Department of Agriculture and Council of Economic Advisers.As percent offarm cashreceiptsThe increased importance of exports, coupled with the disappearanceof surplus grain stocks and nearly full use of the cropland base,has exposed U.S. farmers and consumers to an unaccustomed degreeof instability in commodity prices. Part of this instability comes aboutbecause of unpredictable world weather, but much of it has been theresult of our own policies and those of our trading partners.10.510.711.413.922.124.124.225.426.229.1117
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Economic Reportof the PresidentTran
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ECONOMIC REPORTOF THE PRESIDENT
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We have heard much about American i
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at an approach that took account of
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een due to overall demand in the ec
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to $27.5 billion in the new budget
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ductions would amount to over $27 b
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10 percent inflation rate, keeping
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tutes for petroleum. The Synthetic
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esponse can be so large as to wipe
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSCHAPTER 1. INFLATION AND GR
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PageChallenges to the International
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CHAPTER 1Inflation and Growth in th
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needed to control inflation by resi
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decline in productivity growth may
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Chart 1Standard Unit Labor CostsPER
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end of 1974 the world price of oil
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price decisions cannot easily be re
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Federal budget achieved a surplus.
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As an abrupt increase in the price
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policies but are based on the wides
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tion, and can policies be designed
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duction and employment to grow only
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Moreover, their actions must indica
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Starting with its 1975 targets as a
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well after the fact whether the mon
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Reserve provides some flexibility i
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in response to circumstances in par
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Although the flexibility of TIPs ma
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ard or that thought the administrat
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Page 73 and 74: large firms. Even among large firms
Page 75 and 76: cause declining productivity growth
Page 77 and 78: vanced technology and will therefor
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Page 81 and 82: correct some of the distortions in
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Page 85 and 86: EXPECTED PRODUCTIVITY GAINSAlthough
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Page 91 and 92: time hours also has drawbacks. For
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Page 95 and 96: CHAPTER 2Improving the Adaptability
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Page 101 and 102: dependence on foreign oil mean that
Page 103 and 104: While the market solution might pro
Page 105 and 106: High energy prices and excessive de
Page 107 and 108: part, the interests of these partie
Page 109 and 110: Federal regulations designed to pro
Page 111 and 112: Agency (EPA) from considering prosp
Page 113 and 114: other things, that federally assist
Page 115 and 116: ing services. Money-market mutual f
Page 117 and 118: holdings of consumer and business l
Page 119 and 120: they once had and thus cannot conti
Page 121: finding ways around outdated regula
Page 125 and 126: prices for years in the future, reg
Page 127 and 128: derground water resources once thou
Page 129 and 130: comprehensive, actuarial crop insur
Page 131 and 132: duced a decline in the median age o
Page 133 and 134: elude government investments in loc
Page 135 and 136: some of the firms in the chosen sec
Page 137 and 138: CHAPTER 3The Economy: Review and Pr
Page 139 and 140: uild up oil inventories and maintai
Page 141 and 142: Chart 7Selected Interest Ratesand B
Page 143 and 144: had risen just 2 months earlier. By
Page 145 and 146: Chart 8Personal Saving RatePERCENT1
Page 147 and 148: chief cyclical determinant of housi
Page 149 and 150: ment were sharply diminished by the
Page 151 and 152: dropped even faster, in large part
Page 153 and 154: ployment grew more vigorously after
Page 155 and 156: terials fell for a full third of th
Page 157 and 158: 1979, slowed to a 19 percent annual
Page 159 and 160: costs of production. The evidence s
Page 161 and 162: sharp decline in output in the seco
Page 163 and 164: ecord high interest rates during th
Page 165 and 166: automatic transfer services (ATS) n
Page 167 and 168: plunged in March, although the only
Page 169 and 170: (FHLB) System increased their borro
Page 171 and 172: THE PROSPECTS FOR 1981 AND 1982In 1
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expectations. Of course, if the eco
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The uncertainty of developments in
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produce a slight decline in the sav
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more rapid growth thereafter. Durin
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eemergence of modest but sustained
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hike would depend on many factors,
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major revision of the NIPA occurred
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per year. This modest acceleration
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THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES: TRENDS AN
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Chart 10Labor Costs, Value-Added De
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Rather, the German current account
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TABLE 30.—Inflation in major indu
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THE GLOBAL OIL MARKETTable 31 summa
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may be preserved. Stocks are in fac
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straint on growth. Finally, policie
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outside government, both at home an
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ates are high, differences in polic
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Japanese trade performance in volum
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No "Say's Law" operates in internat
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the cost of the loans, and they may
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At the same time, access to the IMF
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to closer cooperation is to risk a
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While all countries, in attempting
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threats of disruption, market-shari
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Past Council Members and their date
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1977 to review selected analyses of
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The Chairman and the Council Member
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University). Kate Stith Pressman, s
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CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
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GOVERNMENT FINANCE'—ContinuedB-72
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
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TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflato
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TABLE B-5.—Implicit price deflato
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TABLE B-10.—Gross national produc
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TABLE B-12.—Output, costs, and pr
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TABLE B-14.—Gross private domesti
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TABLE B-16.—Inventories and final
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TABLE B-18.—Relation of national
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TABLE B-19-—National income by ty
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Year orquarter192919331939194019411
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TABLE B-22.—Total and per capita
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Year orquarterTotalTotalCurrencyand
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TABLE B-26.—Population by age gro
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TABLE B-27.—Noninstitutional popu
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Year or monthTABLE B-29.—Selected
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TABLE B-31.—Unemployment rate by
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TABLE B-33.—Unemployment by reaso
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TABLE B-35.—Wage and salary worke
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TABLE B-37.—Average weekly earnin
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TABLE B-39.—Changes in productivi
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TABLE B-42.—Industrial production
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TABLE B-44;—New construction acti
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TABLE B-45.—New housing units sta
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TABLE B-47.—Sales and inventories
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TABLE B-49.—Manufacturers' new an
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TABLE B-51.—Consumer price indexe
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19391940194119421943194419451946194
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TABLE B-54.—Changes in special co
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TABLE B-55.—Producer price indexe
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TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
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TABLE B-58.—Changes in producer p
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TABLE B-60.—Components of money s
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TABLE B-62.— Total funds raised i
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TABLE B-63.—Federal Reserve Bank
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TABLE B-65.—Bond yields and inter
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TABLE B-66—Consumer credit outsta
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TABLE B-68.—Mortgage debt outstan
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GOVERNMENT FINANCETABLE B-70.—Fed
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TABLE B-l\.—Federal budget receip
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TABLE B-73.—Government receipts a
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TABLE B-75.—State and local gover
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TABLE B-77,—Interest-bearing publ
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TABLE B-79-—Maturity distribution
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TABLE B-81.—Corporate profits by
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TABLE B-83.—Sales, profits, and s
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TABLE B-85.—Relation of profits a
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TABLE B-87.—Sources and uses of f
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TABLE B-89-—State and municipal a
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TABLE B-91.—Business formation an
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TABLE B-93.—Farm output ami produ
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Year or month1940194119421943194419
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TABLE B-97.—Balance sheet of the
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TABLE B-99— U.S. international tr
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TABLE B-100.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-102.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-104.— World trade: Export
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TABLE B-106.—International reserv
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• • ' •TABLE B-108.—Industr
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TABLE B-110.—Summary of major U.S
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