Economic Report of the President

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CONTENTSECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT 3ANNUAL REPORT OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AD-VISERS* 21PageCHAPTER 1. INFLATION AND GROWTH IN THE 1980S 29CHAPTER 2. IMPROVING THE ADAPTABILITY OF THE ECONOMY 89CHAPTER 3. THE ECONOMY: REVIEW AND PROSPECTS 131CHAPTER 4. THE WORLD ECONOMY: COPING WITH TRANSITION ... 182APPENDIX A. REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES OFTHE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 1980 215APPENDIX B. STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME, EM-PLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION 227*For a detailed table of contents of the Council's Report, see page 25.(in)
Page 3: Economic Reportof the PresidentTran
Page 9 and 10: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
Page 11 and 12: and we have provided job training f
Page 13 and 14: 1970s. The proportion of experience
Page 15 and 16: growth and recovery, and thus colla
Page 17 and 18: older energy-inefficient plant and
Page 19 and 20: Monetary PolicyMonetary policy is t
Page 21 and 22: If the growth of Federal spending i
Page 23 and 24: have unlimited resources. Other nat
Page 25: The same general viewpoint is appro
Page 29: LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
Page 32 and 33: PageEfforts to Improve the Process
Page 34 and 35: List of Tables and Charts—Continu
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 1.—Changes in employment in
Page 38 and 39: the macroeconomic policies examined
Page 40 and 41: Uncertainty is in large part to bla
Page 42 and 43: Over the past 15 years the underlyi
Page 44 and 45: Chart 3Changes in Consumer Prices S
Page 46 and 47: At the end of each inflationary epi
Page 48 and 49: The notion that budget deficits are
Page 50 and 51: The Role of Declining Productivity
Page 52 and 53: job opportunities are very high for
Page 54 and 55:
makers face are not symmetrical and
Page 56 and 57:
extent to which the downward sticki
Page 58 and 59:
ures of the money stock (M-1A and M
Page 60 and 61:
jumps in oil and food prices as wel
Page 62 and 63:
essential for the public to underst
Page 64 and 65:
creases, an incomes policy tries to
Page 66 and 67:
TAX-BASED INCOMES POLICIESOne way o
Page 68 and 69:
penalty TIP would occasionally pena
Page 70 and 71:
Together with a "jawboning" campaig
Page 72 and 73:
Recognizing this, CWPS in 1978 esta
Page 74 and 75:
iodic tax reductions will be both f
Page 76 and 77:
Chart 4Productivity Adjusted for Cy
Page 78 and 79:
estimate, but it could represent pe
Page 80 and 81:
higher interest rates and monetary
Page 82 and 83:
The proposal for tax depreciation
Page 84 and 85:
higher after-tax return on saving m
Page 86 and 87:
equired. To the extent that its sup
Page 88 and 89:
induce an increase in labor supply
Page 90 and 91:
afford to forget its hard-learned l
Page 92 and 93:
TABLE 10.—Distribution of workers
Page 94 and 95:
the TIP and would also distort the
Page 96 and 97:
slow the pace of adaptation. But ex
Page 98 and 99:
sequences of such an interruption o
Page 100 and 101:
September 1980, world oil stocks we
Page 102 and 103:
to distribute rationing coupons and
Page 104 and 105:
capable of handling small- and medi
Page 106 and 107:
ing of regulatory functions often p
Page 108 and 109:
sion relatively well. Although subs
Page 110 and 111:
Advisers and other Presidential adv
Page 112 and 113:
and particulates was demonstrated.
Page 114 and 115:
and most depository institutions we
Page 116 and 117:
TABLE 11.—Selected financial regu
Page 118 and 119:
est rates return to lower levels, i
Page 120 and 121:
task of helping them evolve in an o
Page 122 and 123:
Chart 5Prices Received by Farmers19
Page 124 and 125:
Many nations have policies to shelt
Page 126 and 127:
past. The growing importance of exp
Page 128 and 129:
unlikely to happen in the future in
Page 130 and 131:
In each of these industries today,
Page 132 and 133:
members of the population, who typi
Page 134 and 135:
changed needs of customers. Rubber
Page 136 and 137:
involvement in the operation of ind
Page 138 and 139:
ose from 6.0 percent in December 19
Page 140 and 141:
Early in 1980 there were few signs
Page 142 and 143:
By early March there was fear that
Page 144 and 145:
THE MAJOR SECTORS OF AGGREGATE DEMA
Page 146 and 147:
expenditures continued the virtuall
Page 148 and 149:
ter, the low level of inventories e
Page 150 and 151:
Table 16 shows, the pattern of outp
Page 152 and 153:
ness of U.S. producers in the wake
Page 154 and 155:
and construction helped to reduce t
Page 156 and 157:
previously discussed CPI measures,
Page 158 and 159:
crop damage became evident. Prices
Page 160 and 161:
imported energy eventually will red
Page 162 and 163:
year, 23 percent lower than in 1979
Page 164 and 165:
fiscal 1980, up sharply from the 10
Page 166 and 167:
actions included: (1) a requirement
Page 168 and 169:
ship among money, interest rates, a
Page 170 and 171:
categories gradually abated through
Page 172 and 173:
to yield approximately $13 billion
Page 174 and 175:
England, the Federal Reserve has ad
Page 176 and 177:
will be essentially flat in the fir
Page 178 and 179:
which increased from September to N
Page 180 and 181:
These projections for employment an
Page 182 and 183:
the drought in 1980 will be reflect
Page 184 and 185:
in 1979 and 1980 were of necessity
Page 186 and 187:
nonresidential fixed investment to
Page 188 and 189:
CHAPTER 4The World Economy: Coping
Page 190 and 191:
There are several reasons why the r
Page 192 and 193:
egin to moderate. The second patter
Page 194 and 195:
stabilized in mid-1980, inflation r
Page 196 and 197:
some countries, and in the United S
Page 198 and 199:
1980. After midyear, when consumpti
Page 200 and 201:
itable activities intensifies, and
Page 202 and 203:
capacity utilization is low. The U.
Page 204 and 205:
coordinated use of stocks may fores
Page 206 and 207:
The large differences in monetary s
Page 208 and 209:
The volume of international financi
Page 210 and 211:
equirements of the low-income count
Page 212 and 213:
tractive to banks, however, a somew
Page 214 and 215:
were of central importance to the w
Page 216 and 217:
sures are strengthened, and in the
Page 218 and 219:
Second, the pressure for countries
Page 221:
Appendix AREPORT TO THE PRESIDENT O
Page 225 and 226:
Report to the President on the Acti
Page 227 and 228:
In the final months of each year, d
Page 229 and 230:
A Member of the Council represents
Page 231 and 232:
Elizabeth J. JensenStephen A. O'Con
Page 233:
Appendix BSTATISTICAL TABLES RELATI
Page 236 and 237:
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
Page 238 and 239:
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS—Continue
Page 240 and 241:
TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
Page 242 and 243:
TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflato
Page 244 and 245:
TABLE B-4.—Fixed-weighted price i
Page 246 and 247:
Page 248 and 249:
Page 250 and 251:
Page 252 and 253:
TABLE B-ll.—Gross domestic produc
Page 254 and 255:
TABLE B-13.—Personal consumption
Page 256 and 257:
TABLE B-15.—Inventories and final
Page 258 and 259:
TABLE B-17.—Relation of gross nat
Page 260 and 261:
TABLE B-19.—National income by ty
Page 262 and 263:
TABLE B-20.—Sources of personal i
Page 264 and 265:
TABLE B-21.—Disposition of person
Page 266 and 267:
TABLE B-23.—Gross saving and inve
Page 268 and 269:
TABLE B-25.—Money income (in 1979
Page 270 and 271:
TABLE B-27.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 272 and 273:
TABLE B-28.—Civilian employment a
Page 274 and 275:
TABLE B-30..—Civilian labor force
Page 276 and 277:
TABLE B-32.—Unemployment by durat
Page 278 and 279:
TABLE B-34.—Unemployment insuranc
Page 280 and 281:
TABLE B-36.—Average weekly hours
Page 282 and 283:
TABLE B-38.—Productivity and rela
Page 284:
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTAB
Page 287 and 288:
TABLE B-43.—Capacity utilization
Page 289 and 290:
TABLE B-44.—New construction acti
Page 291 and 292:
TABLE B-46.—Nonfarm business expe
Page 293 and 294:
TABLE B-48.—Manufacturers' shipme
Page 295 and 296:
PRICESTABLE B-50.—Consumer price
Page 297 and 298:
TABLE B-51.—Consumer price indexe
Page 299 and 300:
TABLE B-53.—Changes in consumer p
Page 301 and 302:
TABLE B-55.—Producer price indexe
Page 303 and 304:
TABLE B-56—Producer price indexes
Page 305 and 306:
TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
Page 307 and 308:
MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
Page 309 and 310:
TABLE B-61.—Commercial bank loans
Page 311 and 312:
TABLE B-62.—Total funds raised in
Page 313 and 314:
TABLE B-64.—Aggregate reserves an
Page 315 and 316:
TABLE B-65.—Bond yields and inter
Page 317 and 318:
TABLE B-67—Consumer installment c
Page 319 and 320:
TABLE B-69-— Mortgage debt outsta
Page 321 and 322:
TABLE B-70.—Federal budget receip
Page 323 and 324:
TABLE B-72.—Relation of Federal G
Page 325 and 326:
TABLE B-74.—Federal Government re
Page 327 and 328:
TABLE B-76.—State and local gover
Page 329 and 330:
TABLE B-78.—Estimated ownership o
Page 331 and 332:
CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCE4. ABL
Page 333 and 334:
TABLE B-82.—Corporate profits of
Page 335 and 336:
TABLE B-84.—Relation of profits a
Page 337 and 338:
TABLE B-86.—Determinants of busin
Page 339 and 340:
TABLE B-88.—Current assets and li
Page 341 and 342:
TABLE B-90.—Common stock prices a
Page 343 and 344:
AGRICULTURETABLE B-92.—Farm incom
Page 345 and 346:
TABLE B-94.—Farm input use, selec
Page 347 and 348:
TABLE B-96.—U.S. exports and impo
Page 349 and 350:
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-98
Page 351 and 352:
TABLE B-99.—U.S. international tr
Page 353 and 354:
TABLE B-101.—U.S. merchandise exp
Page 355 and 356:
TABLE B-103.—International invest
Page 357 and 358:
TABLE B-I05.— World trade balance
Page 359 and 360:
TABLE B-107.—Growth rates in real
Page 361 and 362:
TABLE B-109.—Consumer prices and
Page 363:
TABLE B-110.—Summary of major U.S
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