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Economic Report of the President

Report - The American Presidency Project

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equirements <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> low-income countries it serves. Speedy action by<strong>the</strong> new Congress is <strong>the</strong>refore essential.TABLE 33.—Non-oil developing countries: current-account financing, 1973-79[In billions <strong>of</strong> U.S. dollars]Item 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979Current-account deficit'11.5Less: Financing through transactions that do not affect netdebt positions 29.8Plus: Accumulation <strong>of</strong> reserve assets (decumulation-)...9.3Equals: Net external borrowing 411.0Long-term from <strong>of</strong>ficial sources, net 65.5O<strong>the</strong>r long-term borrowing from nonresidents, net6.6From financial institutions 64.0O<strong>the</strong>r.net 62.6Use <strong>of</strong> reserve-related credit facilities, net 7 ..O<strong>the</strong>r short-term borrowing, netResidual errors and omissions 8i'>436.9M3.21.23 24.93 9.610.28.61.61.65.1-1.645.9n.7-2.032.211.414.79.25.52.46.5-2.832.912.112.733.510.217.610.9674.33.9-2.51 Net total <strong>of</strong> balances on goods, services, and private transfers (with sign reversed).2 Net unrequited transfers, net direct investment, SDR allocations, gold monetization, and valuation adjustments.3 Excludes <strong>the</strong> effect <strong>of</strong> a revision <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> terms <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> disposition <strong>of</strong> economic assistance loans made by <strong>the</strong> United States toIndia and repayable in rupees, and <strong>of</strong> rupees already acquired by <strong>the</strong> U.S. Government in repayment <strong>of</strong> such loans. The revisionhas <strong>the</strong> effect <strong>of</strong> increasing government transfers by about $2 billion, with an <strong>of</strong>fset in net <strong>of</strong>ficial loans.•Includes any net use <strong>of</strong> nonreserve claims on nonresidents, errors and omissions in reported balance <strong>of</strong> paymentsstatements for individual countries, and minor deficiencies in coverage.6 Public and publicly guaranteed borrowing only.6 Principally bond issues (public and publicly guaranteed borrowing only) and supplier credits, net <strong>of</strong> acquisitions <strong>of</strong> long-termassets.Comprises use <strong>of</strong> Fund credit and short-term borrowing by monetary authorities from o<strong>the</strong>r monetary authorities.8 Errors and omissions in reported balance <strong>of</strong> payments statements for individual countries, plus minor omissions in coverage.9 Less than $50 million.Source: International Monetary Fund.A different set <strong>of</strong> concerns arises for o<strong>the</strong>r developing countriessuch as <strong>the</strong> exporters <strong>of</strong> manufactured goods whose long-term deficitfinancing has come to a large extent from <strong>the</strong> private capital markets.For <strong>the</strong>m it is obviously critical, first, whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> slowdown in longtermbank lending since 1978 is a "pause" that will shortly be reversedor a more permanent development; and, second, whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>of</strong>ficialresources—on which <strong>the</strong> poorer countries <strong>of</strong>ten have firstclaim—will be adequate to fill any remaining gap.Private FinancingIt is probable that <strong>the</strong> slowing <strong>of</strong> long-term bank lending to developingcountries reflects both a greater unwillingness on <strong>the</strong> part <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong> banks to lend and an increased reluctance on <strong>the</strong> part <strong>of</strong> somedeveloping countries to borrow. The relative importance <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se tw<strong>of</strong>actors is hard to establish. There is considerable evidence that anumber <strong>of</strong> developing countries have deferred borrowing. Whe<strong>the</strong>r<strong>the</strong>y have done so because <strong>of</strong> high interest rates or, perhaps morecritically, because <strong>the</strong>y are unwilling to accept higher spreads over<strong>the</strong> London interbank rate (LIBOR) is unclear. Higher spreads raise28.614.411.926.112.415.815.6-1.7.235.816.218.237.813.325.119.35.8J1.1-2.452.919.411.044.515.923.417.36.1.25.0204

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