Economic Report of the President

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193919401941194219431944194519461947194819491950195119521953195419551956195719581959Year or month196019611962.... . .19631964....19651966196719681969197019711972197319741975....1976....1977197819791979:JanFebMar.iS&' "*::::::JuneJulyAugSept. ..OctNovDec .1980.JanFebMarApr .MayJuneJulyAug ....SeptOctNovTABLE B-52.—Consumer price indexes by commodity and service groups, 1939-80Allitems41.642.044.148.851852.753.958.566.972.171.472177.879 580.180.580.281.484.386.687.388.789.690.691792.994.597.2100.0104.2109.8116.3121.3125.3133.1147.7161.2170.5181.5195 4217.4204 7207.1209.1211.5214.1216.6218.92211223.4225 4227.5229.9233.2236.4239.8242.5244.9247.6247.8249.4251.7253.9256.240.240.643.349.654.054.756.362.475.080.478.378885.987 086.785.985.185.988.690.690.791.592.092.893.6,94,6/ 95.798.2100.0103.7108.4113.5117.4120.9129.9145.5158.4165.2174.71871208.4195.8198.3200.5203.3205.8208.4210.5212 2214.1215 6217.4219.4222.4225.2228.0229.9231.4232.8234.1236.7239.0240.7242.5Food34.635.238.445.150.349.650.758.170.676.673.574 582.884 383.082.881.682.284.988.587.188.089.189.991292.494.499.1100.0103.6108.9114.9118.4123.5141.4161.7175.4180.8192.22114234.5223.9228.2230.4232.3234.3235.4236.9236 3237.1238 2239.1241.7243.8244.9247.3249.1250.4252.0254.8258.7261.1262.4264.5Commodities[1967=100]Commodities less foodAll47.748.050.456.058.461.664.168.176.882.781.581.487.588 388!587,586.987.890.591.592.793.193.494.194.895.696.297.5100;0103.7108.1112.5116.8119.4123.5136.6149.1156.6165.1174 7195.1181.9183.7185.9188.9191.6194.7197.0199 5201.8203 42054207.2210.4213.8216.7218.6220.2221.4222.2224.2226.6228.3230.0Durable48.548.151.458.460.365.970.9•74.180.386.287.488.495.196 495.793.391.591.594.495.997.396.796.697.697.998.898.498.5100.0103.1107.0111.8116.5118.9121.9130.6145.5154.3163.2173 9191.1182.0183.6184.9187.2189.2191.1192.6193 6194.5196 0198.4199.8201.3202.1203.0204.9207.1208.6209.8212.4215.3218.1220.644.344.746.751.653.856.658.662.972.277.876.376 282.082 483.183.583.585.387.688.289.390.791.291.892 793.594.897.0100.0104.1108.8113.1117.0119.8124.8140.9151.7158.3166.5174 3198.71803182.2185.7189.6193.2197.6201.1205 4209.621132123215.2220.5227.3232.6234.6235.5236.3236.6237.8239.3239.6240.5Altservices43.543.644.245.646.447.548.249.151.154.356.958.761.864.567.369.570.972.775.678.580.883.585.286.888.590.292.295.8100.0105.2112.5121:6128.4133.3139.1152.1166.6180.4194.3210 9234^2221.1223.3225.1227.0229.5232.1234.7237 6240J243 6246.2249.3253.1256.8261.3265.3269.2274.2272.4272.5274.8277.9280.9ServicesRent56.056.257.258.558.558.658.859.261.165.168.070473.276 280.383.284.385.987.589.190.491.792.994.095.095.996.998.2100.0102.4105.7110.1115.2119.2124.3130.6137.3144.7153.5164 0176.0170.3171.0171.3172.0173.8174.7175.9177 5179.0181 4182.1182.9184.1185.6186.6187.0188.9191.1192.1193.2195.1197.1198.3AllcommoditiesNondurableServiceslessrent38.138.138.640.342.144.245.146.749.051.954.556 059.362 264.866.768.270.173.376.479.081.983.985.587.389.291.595.3100.0105.7113.8123.7130.8135.9141.8156.0171.9186.8201.6219 4244.9230 4232.9235.0237.1239.8242.6245.6248 8252il255 1258.2261.6266.1270.2275.4280.0284.4290.0287.6287.4289.8293.2296.4Allitemslessfood47.247.348.752.153.655.756.959.464.969.670.371.175.777.579.079.579.781.183.885.787.388.889.790.892.093.294.596.7100.0104.4110.1116.7122.1125.8130.7143.7157.1167.5178.419122133199.8-201.8203.8206.3208.9211.8214.2216 921932218224*. 1266.4229.9233.5237.1239.9242.6245.5245.1246.3248.6250.9253.2Special indexesAllitemslessenergy##....._.„..86.387.088.389.390.491.692.994.397.3100.0104.4110.3117.0122.0126.1133.8146.9160.2169.2179.8193 8213]l202.9205.2206.9208.8210.7212.2213.8215 42173219 2221.4223.6225.9228.0230.8233.4235.7238.3238.3240.0242.5245.1247.7"8X3"85.287.088.389.390.591693.094.396.61000104.6110.7117.6123.1126.9131.31412155.3165.5175.8188 72073197.0198.8200.4202.3204.1205.8207.3209 4211.5213 6216.1218.1220.6222.8225.7228.5231.0233.7233.1234.3236.9239.7242.41 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and gasoline, motor oil, coolant, etc.Note.—Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.AllitofncuernslessfoodandenergyEnergy1"g'ti.'i90.391.894.294.494.795.094.696.397.8100.0101.5104.2107.0111.2114.3123.5159.7176.6189.3207.3220.42753231.5235.0241.2250.2260.8275.4287.1296 33043307 5307*313.7327.9344.6355.0358.8363.2367.8370.4370.7370.1368.0366.1292
TABLE B-53.—Changes in consumer price indexes major groups, 1948-80[Percent change]All itemsCommoditiesServicesEnergy »Year or monthDec.toDec. 2YeartoyearDec.toDec. 2TotalYeartoyearDec.toDec. 2FoodYeartoyearCommoditiesless foodDec.toDec. 2YeartoyearDec.toDec. 2YeartoyearDec.toDec. 2Yeartoyear19481949.. . .1950 .. .195119521953 .19541955195619571958195919601961196219631964 ...196519661967 .. . .19681969 ... .1970... .. .1971 ....197219731974197519761977197819792.7-1.85.85.9.9.6-.5.42.93.01.81.51.5.71.21.61.21.93.43.04.76.15.53.43.48.812.27.04.86.89.013.37.8-1.01.07.92.2.8.5-.41.53.62.7.81.61.01.11.21.31.72.92.94.25.45.94.33.36.211.0915.86.57.711.31.7-4.17.75.9— 7-.S-I A-.42.62.61.3.61.101.01.4.81.62.52.53.85.54.02.93.410.412.76.33.36.18.913.07.2-2.6.69.01.3-.3-.9-.9.93.12.3.1.9.5.9.91.11.22.61.83.74.54.7343.07.412.08.94.35.87.111.4-0.8-3.79.67.4-1.1-1.3-1.6— 9112.82.2-.83.1-.91.51.91.43.43.91.24.37.22.24.34.720.112.26.5.68.011.810.28.5-4.01.411.11.8-1.5-.2-1.4.73.3.4.2-1.61.01.3.91.41.32.25.0.93.65.15.53.04.314.514.48.53.16.310.010.95.3-4.85.74.6-.52-1.402.52.2.81.5-.3.6.71.2.4.71.93.13.74.54.82.32.55.013.26.25.14.97.714.377-1.5-.17.5.9.2-1.1-71.03.11.11.3.4.3.77.8.61.42.6374.24.13.82.23.410.69.25.05.45.81176.13.63.65.24.64.21.92.33.14.5273.72.71.91.72.31.82.64.94.06.17.48.24.13.66.211.38.17.37.99.313.76.34.83.25.34.44.33.32.02.54.03.82.93.32.01.92.01.92.23.94.45.26.98.15.63.84.49.39.58.3778.511.0........"-0 74.31.5-1.12.1-.8-.22.01.81.4173.14.53.12.816.821.611.66.97.28.037.402172.6.2!a -.41.81.62.21.527273.92.88.029.310.67.29.56.325.21979:JanFebMarf/ay.JuneJulvAugSept' ' . .OctNovDec1980:JanFebMarAorMayJuneAug. ..Septocf...:.....Nov0.91.21.01.11.21.211101.0.9.91.11.41.41.41.11.01.1.1.69.9.90.91.11.01.01.01.01.1101.2101.01.21.41.41.4991.00101.01.00.81.31.11.41.21.310 3.9.7.8.91.41.31.2.87.6.61.11.071.01.21.11.0.91.01.1 91.2.81.01.11.41.21.2.5.3.61.21.2 .81.0Change from preceding monthUnadjustedSeasonallyadjustedUnadjustedSeasonallyadjustedUnadjustedSeasonallyad*justed0.3 0.81.0 1.01.2 1.11.6 1.21.4 1.11.6 1.41.2 1.313 131.2 L3.8 .81.0 1.1.9 1.11.5 2.01.6 171.4 1.397 .5.4.5 .3.4 .5.9 .911 11 .8 ,S•7 .9Seasonallyadjusted2.1 1.41.9 1.41.0 1.0.8 .6.9 .6.5 .3.6 .5 3 11.0c .8.41.1 L4.9 0.5 -.01.0 1.07.5 .5.3.51.1 1.01.5 1.8.9 16 .81.1Unadjusted0.91.0.8.81.11.111121.31.21.11.31.51.51.81.5151.9_7.081.11.10.81.1.8.91.21.01.1111.21.21.11.41.41.51.91.51.61.8-.8-.171.21.01.41.52.6374.25.64.23.22.71.1 .11.9,4.55.13.01.11.21.37.1-2-!sUnadjustedSeasonallyadjustedUnadjustedSeasonallyadjusted1 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and gasoline, motor oil, coolant, etc.2 Changes from December to December are based on unadjusted indexes.Note.—Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.2931.61.5273.5374.63.833i\ 1.3 .92.34.65.13.0.9.8.3.32.3
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Economic Reportof the PresidentTran
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ECONOMIC REPORTOF THE PRESIDENT
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We have heard much about American i
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at an approach that took account of
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een due to overall demand in the ec
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to $27.5 billion in the new budget
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ductions would amount to over $27 b
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10 percent inflation rate, keeping
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tutes for petroleum. The Synthetic
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esponse can be so large as to wipe
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSCHAPTER 1. INFLATION AND GR
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PageChallenges to the International
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CHAPTER 1Inflation and Growth in th
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needed to control inflation by resi
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decline in productivity growth may
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Chart 1Standard Unit Labor CostsPER
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end of 1974 the world price of oil
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price decisions cannot easily be re
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Federal budget achieved a surplus.
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As an abrupt increase in the price
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policies but are based on the wides
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tion, and can policies be designed
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duction and employment to grow only
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Moreover, their actions must indica
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Starting with its 1975 targets as a
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well after the fact whether the mon
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Reserve provides some flexibility i
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in response to circumstances in par
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Although the flexibility of TIPs ma
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ard or that thought the administrat
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given standard, as the reward and t
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large firms. Even among large firms
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cause declining productivity growth
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vanced technology and will therefor
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ather than restoring the growth of
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correct some of the distortions in
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higher than it would otherwise be b
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EXPECTED PRODUCTIVITY GAINSAlthough
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supply of adult men in the work for
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increase demand pressures, especial
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time hours also has drawbacks. For
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eintroduce the problem of changing
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CHAPTER 2Improving the Adaptability
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use less and produce more energy in
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expectation of price controls or fu
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dependence on foreign oil mean that
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While the market solution might pro
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High energy prices and excessive de
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part, the interests of these partie
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Federal regulations designed to pro
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Agency (EPA) from considering prosp
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other things, that federally assist
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ing services. Money-market mutual f
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holdings of consumer and business l
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they once had and thus cannot conti
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finding ways around outdated regula
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proportion of the existing farms pr
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prices for years in the future, reg
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derground water resources once thou
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comprehensive, actuarial crop insur
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duced a decline in the median age o
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elude government investments in loc
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some of the firms in the chosen sec
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CHAPTER 3The Economy: Review and Pr
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uild up oil inventories and maintai
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Chart 7Selected Interest Ratesand B
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had risen just 2 months earlier. By
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Chart 8Personal Saving RatePERCENT1
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chief cyclical determinant of housi
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ment were sharply diminished by the
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dropped even faster, in large part
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ployment grew more vigorously after
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terials fell for a full third of th
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1979, slowed to a 19 percent annual
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costs of production. The evidence s
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sharp decline in output in the seco
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ecord high interest rates during th
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automatic transfer services (ATS) n
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plunged in March, although the only
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(FHLB) System increased their borro
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THE PROSPECTS FOR 1981 AND 1982In 1
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expectations. Of course, if the eco
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The uncertainty of developments in
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produce a slight decline in the sav
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more rapid growth thereafter. Durin
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eemergence of modest but sustained
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hike would depend on many factors,
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major revision of the NIPA occurred
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per year. This modest acceleration
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THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES: TRENDS AN
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Chart 10Labor Costs, Value-Added De
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Rather, the German current account
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TABLE 30.—Inflation in major indu
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THE GLOBAL OIL MARKETTable 31 summa
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may be preserved. Stocks are in fac
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straint on growth. Finally, policie
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outside government, both at home an
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ates are high, differences in polic
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Japanese trade performance in volum
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No "Say's Law" operates in internat
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the cost of the loans, and they may
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At the same time, access to the IMF
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to closer cooperation is to risk a
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While all countries, in attempting
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threats of disruption, market-shari
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Past Council Members and their date
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1977 to review selected analyses of
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The Chairman and the Council Member
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University). Kate Stith Pressman, s
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CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
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GOVERNMENT FINANCE'—ContinuedB-72
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
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TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflato
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TABLE B-5.—Implicit price deflato
Page 247 and 248: TABLE B-7.—Gross national product
Page 249 and 250: TABLE B-8.—Gross national product
Page 251 and 252: TABLE B-10.—Gross national produc
Page 253 and 254: TABLE B-12.—Output, costs, and pr
Page 255 and 256: TABLE B-14.—Gross private domesti
Page 257 and 258: TABLE B-16.—Inventories and final
Page 259 and 260: TABLE B-18.—Relation of national
Page 261 and 262: TABLE B-19-—National income by ty
Page 263 and 264: Year orquarter192919331939194019411
Page 265 and 266: TABLE B-22.—Total and per capita
Page 267 and 268: Year orquarterTotalTotalCurrencyand
Page 269 and 270: TABLE B-26.—Population by age gro
Page 271 and 272: TABLE B-27.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 273 and 274: Year or monthTABLE B-29.—Selected
Page 275 and 276: TABLE B-31.—Unemployment rate by
Page 277 and 278: TABLE B-33.—Unemployment by reaso
Page 279 and 280: TABLE B-35.—Wage and salary worke
Page 281 and 282: TABLE B-37.—Average weekly earnin
Page 283 and 284: TABLE B-39.—Changes in productivi
Page 286 and 287: TABLE B-42.—Industrial production
Page 288 and 289: TABLE B-44;—New construction acti
Page 290 and 291: TABLE B-45.—New housing units sta
Page 292 and 293: TABLE B-47.—Sales and inventories
Page 294 and 295: TABLE B-49.—Manufacturers' new an
Page 296 and 297: TABLE B-51.—Consumer price indexe
Page 300 and 301: TABLE B-54.—Changes in special co
Page 302 and 303: TABLE B-55.—Producer price indexe
Page 304 and 305: TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
Page 306 and 307: TABLE B-58.—Changes in producer p
Page 308 and 309: TABLE B-60.—Components of money s
Page 310 and 311: TABLE B-62.— Total funds raised i
Page 312 and 313: TABLE B-63.—Federal Reserve Bank
Page 314 and 315: TABLE B-65.—Bond yields and inter
Page 316 and 317: TABLE B-66—Consumer credit outsta
Page 318 and 319: TABLE B-68.—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 320 and 321: GOVERNMENT FINANCETABLE B-70.—Fed
Page 322 and 323: TABLE B-l\.—Federal budget receip
Page 324 and 325: TABLE B-73.—Government receipts a
Page 326 and 327: TABLE B-75.—State and local gover
Page 328 and 329: TABLE B-77,—Interest-bearing publ
Page 330 and 331: TABLE B-79-—Maturity distribution
Page 332 and 333: TABLE B-81.—Corporate profits by
Page 334 and 335: TABLE B-83.—Sales, profits, and s
Page 336 and 337: TABLE B-85.—Relation of profits a
Page 338 and 339: TABLE B-87.—Sources and uses of f
Page 340 and 341: TABLE B-89-—State and municipal a
Page 342 and 343: TABLE B-91.—Business formation an
Page 344 and 345: TABLE B-93.—Farm output ami produ
Page 346 and 347: Year or month1940194119421943194419
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TABLE B-97.—Balance sheet of the
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TABLE B-99— U.S. international tr
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TABLE B-100.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-102.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-104.— World trade: Export
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TABLE B-106.—International reserv
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• • ' •TABLE B-108.—Industr
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TABLE B-110.—Summary of major U.S
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