Economic Report of the President

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PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTABLE B-40.^Industrial production indexes, major industry divisions, 1929-80[1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]Year or monthTotalindustrialproductionTotalManufacturingDurableNondurableMiningUtilities1967 proportion192919331939194019411942 ..194319441945194619471948194919501951195219531954 . .19551956195719581959.1960196119621963196419651966196719681969.19701971197219731974197519761977197819791979:JanFebMar .AprMay : : .::June:'.::.: v:" " :;JulyAug :/.: :.: :v :::::::::SeptSet ::::;:..i.::::: ;..NovDec1980:JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept.. ..Oct p .Nov"100.0021.613.721.725.031636.344.047.440.735.039.441.138.844.948.750.654.851.958.561.161.957.964.866.266.772.276.581.789.897.8100.0106.3111.1107.8109.6119.7129.8129.3117.8130.5138.2146.1152.5152.0152.5153.5151.1152.7153.0153.0152.1152.7152.7152.3152.5152.7152.6152.1148.3144.0141.5140.4141.8143.9146.5148.587.9522 814.021.525.432 437.847.050.942.635.339.440938.745 048.650 655.251558.260 561.257 064.265 465.671575.881089.797.9100.0106 4111.0106 4108.2118 9129.8129 4116.3130.3138.4146.8153.6153.0153.6154.9151.9154.1154.2154.4152.9153.9153.7153.3153.2153.4153 0152.1147.9143.4140.3139.1140.6143.2146 0148.051.9822 59.117.723.531439.954.259.945.231.637.739.335.743 548.951958.751859.261.161.653.961.962 961.868 673.178 389.098.9100.0106 5110.6102 3102.4113 7127.1125 7109.3122.3130.0139.7146.4147.0147.2148.6144.5147.6147.6147.2144.4145.9146.0145.2144.8144.71441143.4138.4133.3129.9128.3129.4131.7135 3137.835.9723.219.926.127.533.334.637.138.638.539.741.342.742.046 748.349.251.251.657.260.161.161.667.769 371.575 880.085.290.996.7100.0106.2111.5112 3116.6126 5133.8134 6126.4141.8150.5156.9164.0161.6162.9164.0162.6163.6163.7164.8165.2165.4164.8165.0165.3166.0165 9164.7161.6158.0155.3154.7156.9159.81614162.76.3643.130.642.146.849.751.352.556.255.154.261.364.457.163.870.069.471.269.977:982.082.175.378.780.380.883,186.489.993.298.2100.0104 2108.3112 2109.81131114.7115 3112.8114.2118.2124.0125.5124.7122.6123.0123.4123.3123.6124.1126.8126.0127.8129.9131.4133.5132 9133.0133.1133.4132.9130.6129.6130.51318134.25.697.46.710.711.813.314.916.517.517.818.620.122.423.927.231.033.736.539.343.948.251.553.959.363.467.072 077.083.688.795.5100.0108.4117.3124 5130.5139 4145.4143 7146.0151.7156.5161.4166.0166.5168.1167.6167.2165.7164.1164.2164.6165.4165.7167.2166.9164.81671172.0169.1167.7169.3171.8173.8171.6170 8171.4Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.278
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Economic Reportof the PresidentTran
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ECONOMIC REPORTOF THE PRESIDENT
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We have heard much about American i
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at an approach that took account of
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een due to overall demand in the ec
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to $27.5 billion in the new budget
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ductions would amount to over $27 b
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10 percent inflation rate, keeping
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tutes for petroleum. The Synthetic
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esponse can be so large as to wipe
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSCHAPTER 1. INFLATION AND GR
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PageChallenges to the International
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CHAPTER 1Inflation and Growth in th
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needed to control inflation by resi
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decline in productivity growth may
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Chart 1Standard Unit Labor CostsPER
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end of 1974 the world price of oil
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price decisions cannot easily be re
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Federal budget achieved a surplus.
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As an abrupt increase in the price
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policies but are based on the wides
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tion, and can policies be designed
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duction and employment to grow only
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Moreover, their actions must indica
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Starting with its 1975 targets as a
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well after the fact whether the mon
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Reserve provides some flexibility i
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in response to circumstances in par
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Although the flexibility of TIPs ma
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ard or that thought the administrat
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given standard, as the reward and t
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large firms. Even among large firms
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cause declining productivity growth
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vanced technology and will therefor
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ather than restoring the growth of
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correct some of the distortions in
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higher than it would otherwise be b
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EXPECTED PRODUCTIVITY GAINSAlthough
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supply of adult men in the work for
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increase demand pressures, especial
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time hours also has drawbacks. For
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eintroduce the problem of changing
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CHAPTER 2Improving the Adaptability
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use less and produce more energy in
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expectation of price controls or fu
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dependence on foreign oil mean that
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While the market solution might pro
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High energy prices and excessive de
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part, the interests of these partie
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Federal regulations designed to pro
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Agency (EPA) from considering prosp
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other things, that federally assist
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ing services. Money-market mutual f
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holdings of consumer and business l
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they once had and thus cannot conti
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finding ways around outdated regula
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proportion of the existing farms pr
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prices for years in the future, reg
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derground water resources once thou
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comprehensive, actuarial crop insur
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duced a decline in the median age o
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elude government investments in loc
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some of the firms in the chosen sec
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CHAPTER 3The Economy: Review and Pr
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uild up oil inventories and maintai
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Chart 7Selected Interest Ratesand B
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had risen just 2 months earlier. By
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Chart 8Personal Saving RatePERCENT1
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chief cyclical determinant of housi
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ment were sharply diminished by the
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dropped even faster, in large part
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ployment grew more vigorously after
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terials fell for a full third of th
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1979, slowed to a 19 percent annual
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costs of production. The evidence s
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sharp decline in output in the seco
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ecord high interest rates during th
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automatic transfer services (ATS) n
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plunged in March, although the only
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(FHLB) System increased their borro
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THE PROSPECTS FOR 1981 AND 1982In 1
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expectations. Of course, if the eco
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The uncertainty of developments in
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produce a slight decline in the sav
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more rapid growth thereafter. Durin
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eemergence of modest but sustained
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hike would depend on many factors,
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major revision of the NIPA occurred
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per year. This modest acceleration
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THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES: TRENDS AN
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Chart 10Labor Costs, Value-Added De
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Rather, the German current account
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TABLE 30.—Inflation in major indu
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THE GLOBAL OIL MARKETTable 31 summa
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may be preserved. Stocks are in fac
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straint on growth. Finally, policie
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outside government, both at home an
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ates are high, differences in polic
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Japanese trade performance in volum
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No "Say's Law" operates in internat
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the cost of the loans, and they may
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At the same time, access to the IMF
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to closer cooperation is to risk a
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While all countries, in attempting
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threats of disruption, market-shari
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Past Council Members and their date
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1977 to review selected analyses of
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The Chairman and the Council Member
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University). Kate Stith Pressman, s
Page 235 and 236: CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
Page 237 and 238: GOVERNMENT FINANCE'—ContinuedB-72
Page 239 and 240: NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
Page 241 and 242: TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
Page 243 and 244: TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflato
Page 245 and 246: TABLE B-5.—Implicit price deflato
Page 251 and 252: TABLE B-10.—Gross national produc
Page 253 and 254: TABLE B-12.—Output, costs, and pr
Page 255 and 256: TABLE B-14.—Gross private domesti
Page 257 and 258: TABLE B-16.—Inventories and final
Page 259 and 260: TABLE B-18.—Relation of national
Page 261 and 262: TABLE B-19-—National income by ty
Page 263 and 264: Year orquarter192919331939194019411
Page 265 and 266: TABLE B-22.—Total and per capita
Page 267 and 268: Year orquarterTotalTotalCurrencyand
Page 269 and 270: TABLE B-26.—Population by age gro
Page 271 and 272: TABLE B-27.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 273 and 274: Year or monthTABLE B-29.—Selected
Page 275 and 276: TABLE B-31.—Unemployment rate by
Page 277 and 278: TABLE B-33.—Unemployment by reaso
Page 279 and 280: TABLE B-35.—Wage and salary worke
Page 281 and 282: TABLE B-37.—Average weekly earnin
Page 283: TABLE B-39.—Changes in productivi
Page 287 and 288: TABLE B-43.—Capacity utilization
Page 289 and 290: TABLE B-44.—New construction acti
Page 291 and 292: TABLE B-46.—Nonfarm business expe
Page 293 and 294: TABLE B-48.—Manufacturers' shipme
Page 295 and 296: PRICESTABLE B-50.—Consumer price
Page 297 and 298: TABLE B-51.—Consumer price indexe
Page 299 and 300: TABLE B-53.—Changes in consumer p
Page 301 and 302: TABLE B-55.—Producer price indexe
Page 303 and 304: TABLE B-56—Producer price indexes
Page 305 and 306: TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
Page 307 and 308: MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
Page 309 and 310: TABLE B-61.—Commercial bank loans
Page 311 and 312: TABLE B-62.—Total funds raised in
Page 313 and 314: TABLE B-64.—Aggregate reserves an
Page 315 and 316: TABLE B-65.—Bond yields and inter
Page 317 and 318: TABLE B-67—Consumer installment c
Page 319 and 320: TABLE B-69-— Mortgage debt outsta
Page 321 and 322: TABLE B-70.—Federal budget receip
Page 323 and 324: TABLE B-72.—Relation of Federal G
Page 325 and 326: TABLE B-74.—Federal Government re
Page 327 and 328: TABLE B-76.—State and local gover
Page 329 and 330: TABLE B-78.—Estimated ownership o
Page 331 and 332: CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCE4. ABL
Page 333 and 334: TABLE B-82.—Corporate profits of
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TABLE B-84.—Relation of profits a
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TABLE B-86.—Determinants of busin
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TABLE B-88.—Current assets and li
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TABLE B-90.—Common stock prices a
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AGRICULTURETABLE B-92.—Farm incom
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TABLE B-94.—Farm input use, selec
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TABLE B-96.—U.S. exports and impo
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-98
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TABLE B-99.—U.S. international tr
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TABLE B-101.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-103.—International invest
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TABLE B-I05.— World trade balance
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TABLE B-107.—Growth rates in real
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TABLE B-109.—Consumer prices and
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TABLE B-110.—Summary of major U.S
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