TABLE B-47.—Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade, 1947-80[Amounts in millions <strong>of</strong> dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]Year or monthTotal manufacturing andManufacturingMerchant wholesalersRetail tradetradeSales'Inventories2 Ratio3 Sales 1tories Inven-2Inventories2 Ratio* Sales'Ratio3 Sales'Inventories2 Ratio335,26033,78838,59643,35644,84047,98746,44351,69454,06355,87954,20159,72960,82761,15965,66268,99573,68252,50749,49759,82270,24272,37776,12273,17579,51687,30489,05287,09392,12994,71395,594101,063105,480111,5031.421.531.361.551.581.581.601.471.551.591.601.501.561.541.501.491.4715,51317,31616,12618,63421,71422,52924,84323,35526,48027,74028,73627,24730,28630,87930,92333,35735,05837,33125,89728,54326,32131,07839,30641,13643,94841,61245,06950,64251,87150,24152,94553,78054,88558,18660,04663,4091.581.571.751.481.661.781.761.811.621.731.801.841.701.751.741.701.691.646,8086,5147,6958,5978,7829,0528,9939,89310,51310,47510,25711,49111,65611,98812,67413,38214,5297,9577,7069,2849,88610,21010,68610,63711,67813,26012,73012,73913,87914,12014,48814,93616,04817,0001.131.191.071.161.121.171.181.131.191.231.241.151.221.201.161.151.1410,20011,13511,14912,26813,04613,52914,09114,09515,32115,81116,66716,69617,95118,29418,24919,63020,55621,82314,24116,00715,47019,46021,05021,03121,48820,92622,76923,40224,45124,11325,30526,81326,22127,94129,38631,0941.261.391.411.381.641.521.531.511.431.471.441.431.401.451.431.381.391.4080,28387,18790,34898,143105,042120,907136,790145,335156,166169,8411.451.471.561.541.5540,99544,87046,48750,26853,54068,18577,95284,65990,61798,2101.601.621.761.741.7715,61116,98719,44820,84622,60918,31720,76525,37726,60429,1141.151.151.251.251.2323,67725,33024,41327,03028,89334,40538,07335,29938,94542,5171.391.441.431.381.41107,475116,035130,049152,237175,741178,337188,563203,161234,163285,5191.621.581.501.431.4752,83255,92563,04272,95484,821101,667102,677108,296124,672157,9151.901.831.671.581.6523,94326,25729,58436,82245,83632,80335,82339,78646,25456,5371.291.301.271.171.1230,70033,85337,42242,46145,08343,86750,06355,07963,23771,0671.411.411.401.401.48180,263202,001224,786254,297288,388285,035310,736337,432380,643426,7961.581.481.441.411.4186,61798,810110,842124,714141,000158,178170,156180,224198,334228,2581.831.661.591.521.5244,63353,50962,84273,55155,11361,30767,99880,77189,6761.241.211.211.191.1749,01354,78460,43566,74173,83771,74479,27389,210101,538108,8621.441.381.391.431.45274,091274,844283,741276,406286,413283,772385,379389,312392,630398,307401,945406,7201.411.421.381.441.401.43135,213135,718141,039134,398141,783139,050201,143203,819205,752209,175210,881213,9421.491.501.461.561.491.5467,58567,86070,65770,40272,33872,62981,49882,70083,55884,63284,90485,4061.211.221.181.201.171.1871,29371,26672,04571,60672,29272,093102,738102,793103,320104,500106,160107,3721.441.441.431.461.471.49289,994293,167296,760298,452298,949302,117413,581417,130418,461422,710425,952426,7961.431.421.411.421.431.41142,094142,708143,614145,547144,326146,289216,120218,669221,341223,476226,483228,2581.521.531.541.541.571.5674,77875,58876,48077,32278,20378,67887,66288,28088,37288,81989,6761.171.171.161.151.141.1473,12174,87176,66675,58376,42177,150109,799110,181108,748110,415110,383108,8621.501.471.421.461.441.41312,458310,181305,165294,998292,478294,203304,154308,019318,321325,838329,140431,420435,155439,114445,170445,801447,031449,510451,951454,566456,532458,2351.381.401.441.511.521.521.481.471.431.401.39152,088152,889150,081143,596141,515141,573145,678146,643152,764156,697158,386232,294235,096238,522242,540243,402243,630244,105243,517243,615242,876244,1861.531.541.591.691.721.721.681.661.591.551.5480,90679,29978,55076,39176,37676,62980,18982,60685,47088,53288,82190,69091,34291,49792,37892,56293,63394,61997,11198,11199,27599,8791.121.151.171.211.211.221.181.181.151.121.1279,46477,99376,53475,01174,58776,00178,28778,77080,08780,60981,93380,830108,436108,717109,095110,252109,837109,768110,786111,323112,840114,381114,1701 Monthly average for year and total for month.2 Seasonally adjusted, end <strong>of</strong> period.3 Inventory/sales ratio. For annual periods, ratio <strong>of</strong> weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio <strong>of</strong>inventories at end <strong>of</strong> month to sales for month.Note.—Earlier data are not strictly comparable with data beginning 1958 for manufacturing and beginning 1967 for wholesale andThe inventory figures in this table do not agree with <strong>the</strong> estimates <strong>of</strong> change in business inventories included in <strong>the</strong> gross nationalproduct since <strong>the</strong>se figures cover only manufacturing and trade ra<strong>the</strong>r than all Dusiness, and show inventories in terms <strong>of</strong> current bookvalue without adjustment for revaluation.Source: Department <strong>of</strong> Commerce (Bureau <strong>of</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> Analysis and Bureau <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Census).2861.361.391.431.471.471.441.421.411.411.421.39
TABLE B-48.—Manufacturers' shipments and inventories, 1947-80[Millions <strong>of</strong> dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]Year or month1947 ..1948..1949...1950 ..1951..19521953 .1954 ,1955.1956..1957..1958..1959I9601961.1962 .19631964 .1965196619671968.1969.1970 ..1971. ..1972 ..1973 ...1974 .. .1975197619771978 .19791979:Jan..Feb.Mar...Apr....May.June.July .Aug...Sept..Oct..NovDec .1980:JanFeb..Mar.fc:June..July .Aug .SeptOct..Nov.Shipments 1Total15,51317,31616,12618,63421,71422,52924,84323,35526,48027,74028,73627,24730,28630,87930,92333,35735,05837,33140,99544,87046,48750,26853,54052,83255,92563,04272,95484,82186,61798,810110,842124,714141,000135,213135,718141,039134,398141,783139,050142,094142,708143,614145,547144,326146,289152,088152,889150,081143,596141,515141,573145,678146,643152,764156,697158,386Durableindustries6,6947,5797,1918,84510,49311,31313,34911,82814,07114,71515,23713,56315,60915,88315,61617,26218,28019,63722,22124,64925,26727,69829,47728,21529,97334,04339,70344,25343,67850,69758,01066,50573,98172,77973,33575,76371,19975,51572,79773,87574,36374,20175,54473,75174,19177,94879,15975,92572,20769,44369,05672,54472,05776,57179,49780,268Nondurablegoodsindustries8,8199,7388,9359,78911,22111,21611,49411,52712,40913,02513,49913,68414,67714,99615,30716,09516,77817,69418,77420,22021,22022,57024,06424,61725,95228,99933,25140,56842,93948,11352,83258,21067,01962,43462,38365,27663,19966,26866,25368,22068,34569,41470,00370,57472,09874,14073,73074,15671,38972,07.272,51773,13474,58676,19377,20078,118Inventories 2Total25,89728,54326,32131,07839,30641,13643,94841,61245,06950,64251,87150,24152,94553,78054,88558,18660,04663,40968,18577,95284,65990,61798,210101,667102,677108,296124,672157,915158,178170,156180,224198,334228,258201,143203,819205,752209,175210,881213,942216,120218,669221,341223,476226,483228,258232,294235,096238,522242,540243,402243,630244,105243,517243,615242,876244,186Durable goods industriesTotal13,06114,66213,06015,53920,99123,73125,87823,71026,40530,44731,72830,25832,07732,37132,54434,63235,86638,50642,25749,92054,99658,87164,73966,79066,31370,30881,426101,866101,766109,095115,751129,456151,689131,892134,021135,266137,851139,325141,480143,141144,658146,048148,136150,476151,689154,043155,314157,127159,877160,607160,404160,875161,081160,691160,137160,865Materialsandsupplies8,9667,89419,19410,41710,60810,03210,77610,35310,27910,81011,06811,97013,32515,48916,45417,38918,71019,19819,77820,89326,06235,22833,62936,56238,78541,48048,85742,17842,75143,49343,90444,43044,80345,52446,37846,41747,36248,41648,85749,62750,24850,34751,08650,66550,17750,03249,13649,00748,72248,796Workmproc-10,7209,72110,75612,31712,83712,38713,06312,77213,20314,15914,87116,19118,07521,93925,00127,31430,37729,83628,65430,81935,54642,68342,92344,84347,03055,52366,83756,32657,22657,72059,00959,95061,41161,92762,60763,81064,85966,14566,83767,95168,39769,58570,59471,41171,89172,12673,11373,20973,03773,693Finishedgoods6,2066,0406,3487,5658,1257,8398,2399,2459,0639,6629,92510,34410,85412,49113,54214,16715,65117,75617,88218,59719,81823,95625,21427,69029,93732,45435,99433,38834,04534,05434,93834,94435,26735,69135,67135,82135,91435,91635,99436,46536,66937,19538,19738,53138,33638,71738,83238,47538,37838,376Nondurable goods industriesTotal12,83613,88113,26115,53918,31517,40518,07017,90218,66420,19520,14319,98320,86821,40922,34123,55424,18024,90325,92828,03229,66231,74633,47134,87736,36437,98743,24556,04856,41261,06164,47268,87876,56969,25169,79870,48571,32371,55672,46272,97974,01175,29375,34076,00776,56978,25179,78281,39582,66382,79583,22683,23082,43682,92482,73983,321Materialsandsupplies8,3178,1678,5568,9718,7758,6629,0809,0829,4939,8139,97810,13110,44811,15511,71512,28912,72613,15413,68014,67618,13423,68923,19925,05625,31626,71930,25727,08427,35327,66928,04028,05828,269-28,52729,10929,35329,64430,08430,25730,87331,41831,96732,32232,40632,33832,31431,46131,91832,13932,278Workinproc-2,4722,4402,5712,7212,8642,8282,9442,9463,1103,2963,4063,5113,8064,2044,4234,8495,1245,2755,6695,9836,7138,1798,6929,57610,15210,72911,77410,85910,97810,99411,14211,22211,38011,52211,62111,88811,86011,89411,77412,06512,26912,68712,77412,70812,61112,63412,62012,72512,55112,790Finishedgoods7,4097,4157,6668,6228,6248,4918,8459,3809,73810,44410,79611,26111,67412,67313,52414,60815,62116,44817,01517,32818,39824,18024,52126,42929,00531,43034,53831,30931,46731,82232,14132,27632,81332,93033,28134,05233,83634,02734,53835,31336,09536,74137,56737,68138,27738,28238,35538,28138,04938,2531 Monthly average for year and total for month.2 Book value, seasonally adjusted, end <strong>of</strong> period.Note.—Data beginning 1958 are not strictly comparable with earlier data.Source: Department <strong>of</strong> Commerce, Bureau <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Census.287
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Economic Reportof the PresidentTran
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ECONOMIC REPORTOF THE PRESIDENT
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We have heard much about American i
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at an approach that took account of
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een due to overall demand in the ec
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to $27.5 billion in the new budget
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ductions would amount to over $27 b
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10 percent inflation rate, keeping
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tutes for petroleum. The Synthetic
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esponse can be so large as to wipe
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSCHAPTER 1. INFLATION AND GR
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PageChallenges to the International
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CHAPTER 1Inflation and Growth in th
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needed to control inflation by resi
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decline in productivity growth may
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Chart 1Standard Unit Labor CostsPER
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end of 1974 the world price of oil
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price decisions cannot easily be re
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Federal budget achieved a surplus.
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As an abrupt increase in the price
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policies but are based on the wides
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tion, and can policies be designed
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duction and employment to grow only
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Moreover, their actions must indica
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Starting with its 1975 targets as a
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well after the fact whether the mon
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Reserve provides some flexibility i
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in response to circumstances in par
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Although the flexibility of TIPs ma
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ard or that thought the administrat
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given standard, as the reward and t
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large firms. Even among large firms
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cause declining productivity growth
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vanced technology and will therefor
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ather than restoring the growth of
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correct some of the distortions in
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higher than it would otherwise be b
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EXPECTED PRODUCTIVITY GAINSAlthough
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supply of adult men in the work for
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increase demand pressures, especial
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time hours also has drawbacks. For
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eintroduce the problem of changing
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CHAPTER 2Improving the Adaptability
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use less and produce more energy in
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expectation of price controls or fu
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dependence on foreign oil mean that
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While the market solution might pro
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High energy prices and excessive de
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part, the interests of these partie
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Federal regulations designed to pro
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Agency (EPA) from considering prosp
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other things, that federally assist
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ing services. Money-market mutual f
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holdings of consumer and business l
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they once had and thus cannot conti
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finding ways around outdated regula
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proportion of the existing farms pr
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prices for years in the future, reg
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derground water resources once thou
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comprehensive, actuarial crop insur
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duced a decline in the median age o
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elude government investments in loc
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some of the firms in the chosen sec
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CHAPTER 3The Economy: Review and Pr
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uild up oil inventories and maintai
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Chart 7Selected Interest Ratesand B
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had risen just 2 months earlier. By
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Chart 8Personal Saving RatePERCENT1
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chief cyclical determinant of housi
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ment were sharply diminished by the
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dropped even faster, in large part
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ployment grew more vigorously after
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terials fell for a full third of th
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1979, slowed to a 19 percent annual
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costs of production. The evidence s
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sharp decline in output in the seco
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ecord high interest rates during th
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automatic transfer services (ATS) n
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plunged in March, although the only
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(FHLB) System increased their borro
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THE PROSPECTS FOR 1981 AND 1982In 1
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expectations. Of course, if the eco
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The uncertainty of developments in
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produce a slight decline in the sav
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more rapid growth thereafter. Durin
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eemergence of modest but sustained
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hike would depend on many factors,
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major revision of the NIPA occurred
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per year. This modest acceleration
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THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES: TRENDS AN
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Chart 10Labor Costs, Value-Added De
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Rather, the German current account
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TABLE 30.—Inflation in major indu
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THE GLOBAL OIL MARKETTable 31 summa
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may be preserved. Stocks are in fac
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straint on growth. Finally, policie
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outside government, both at home an
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ates are high, differences in polic
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Japanese trade performance in volum
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No "Say's Law" operates in internat
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the cost of the loans, and they may
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At the same time, access to the IMF
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to closer cooperation is to risk a
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While all countries, in attempting
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threats of disruption, market-shari
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Past Council Members and their date
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1977 to review selected analyses of
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The Chairman and the Council Member
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University). Kate Stith Pressman, s
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CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
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GOVERNMENT FINANCE'—ContinuedB-72
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
- Page 241 and 242: TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
- Page 243 and 244: TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflato
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- Page 265 and 266: TABLE B-22.—Total and per capita
- Page 267 and 268: Year orquarterTotalTotalCurrencyand
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TABLE B-91.—Business formation an
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TABLE B-93.—Farm output ami produ
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Year or month1940194119421943194419
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TABLE B-97.—Balance sheet of the
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TABLE B-99— U.S. international tr
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TABLE B-100.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-102.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-104.— World trade: Export
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TABLE B-106.—International reserv
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• • ' •TABLE B-108.—Industr
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TABLE B-110.—Summary of major U.S