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Economic Report of the President

Report - The American Presidency Project

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ness <strong>of</strong> U.S. producers in <strong>the</strong> wake <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> depreciation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> dollarin 1977 and 1978,Government Purchases <strong>of</strong> Goods and ServicesReal government purchases <strong>of</strong> goods and services grew 1.5 percentduring 1980, as gains in Federal purchases more than <strong>of</strong>fset <strong>the</strong> declinein State and local purchases. Over <strong>the</strong> 4 quarters <strong>of</strong> 1980 Stateand local purchases fell 0.3 percent. Reduced purchases <strong>of</strong> durablegoods (down 1.6 percent) and structures (down 6.5 percent) were <strong>the</strong>key factors. Real compensation <strong>of</strong> employees grew 0.7 percent in1980, a significant deceleration from <strong>the</strong> 2.4 percent average rate in<strong>the</strong> previous 3 years. There had been widespread expectations thatreductions in Federal grant-in-aid support, particularly for publicservice employment payrolls, combined with <strong>the</strong> recession squeezeon tax receipts and political pressures for reduced growth, wouldforce an even sharper cutback in <strong>the</strong> growth <strong>of</strong> State and local payrolls.Instead, State and local governments have attempted to insulatepayrolls from <strong>the</strong> worst <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> budget pressures while cutting expenditureselsewhere. The decline in structures investment over <strong>the</strong>year was heavily concentrated in those areas dependent on <strong>the</strong> housingcycle: sewer system construction and highway and street constructionand renovation.Real Federal purchases <strong>of</strong> goods and services grew 4.7 percentduring 1980. Real defense spending grew 5.7 percent during 1980,with <strong>the</strong> pace <strong>of</strong> spending picking up in <strong>the</strong> last half <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> year. Realnondefense purchases grew at a slower 3.2 percent for <strong>the</strong> year as awhole.LABOR MARKET DEVELOPMENTSThe volatility in demand for goods and services during 1980 producedsimilar swings in <strong>the</strong> demand for labor (Table 17). Civilianemployment peaked at 97.8 million in February 1980. Then during<strong>the</strong> next 4 months employment fell sharply (1.1 percent) to 96.8 millionin June. Over this same period unemployment rose from 6.5 millionto 7.8 million. Automobile and construction employment wereespecially hard hit. Although <strong>the</strong>se two industries constituted onlyabout 6 percent <strong>of</strong> total payroll employment, <strong>the</strong>y accounted fornearly two-fifths <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> decline in employment from February toJune.Employment growth resumed at midyear. The magnitude <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>subsequent recovery differs, depending on which <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> two standardmeasures <strong>of</strong> employment is utilized. Judged by <strong>the</strong> household survey,employment growth after midyear was relatively modest so that byyear-end total employment was still 500,000 lower than in December1979. When measured by data from business payrolls, however, em-146

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