Economic Report of the President

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TABLE B-42.—Industrial production indexes, selected manufactures, 1947-80[1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]Year or month1967 proportion19471948...19491950195119521953195419551956195719581959I96019611962 .. . 41963 . .1964. .19651966196719681969... . . ,197019711972.. .1973..197419751976 .19771978 ....19791979:JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept .OctNovDec1980JanFebMar.AprMay.JuneJuly.Aug .Sept.Oct"Nov.Ourable manufacturesPrimarymetalsTotal6.5763.365.855.469.775.869.278.563.582.582.078.562.372.772.471.176.382.392.8102.1108.4100.0104.3113.8106.6100.2112.1126.7123.196.4109.7111.1119.9121.3123.3120.4123.8122.0121.2124.2126.7121.1122.1118.4117.1115.3116.4111.9113.7106.496.190.481.786.089.9100.0107.7Ironandsteel4.2170.193.291.588.266.576.577.774.277.384.395.9105.2108.4100.0103.2112.6104.796.1107.1122.3119.895.8104.8103.8113.2113.2113.3110.8116.2115.8114.3118.1119.0112.0115.0108.8108.1106.6107.2103.4105.997.484.475.468.175.379.893.8Fabricatedmetalproducts5.9349.950.845.856.159.958.566.059.467.868.870.663.371.071.169.475.477.882.690.897.2100.0105.6107.9102.4103.5112.1124.7124.2109.9123.9131.0141.6148.5149.1150.8150.2148.8150.3149.3149.3147.6146.5147.5146.9146.2145.0145.7145.5141.4133.2126.1123.8125.8129.0132.4134.6Nonelectricalmachinery9.1539.039.233.437.547.751.954.046.150.658.057.948.656.756.955.462.166.375.685.098.8100.0101.8109.3104.4100.2116.0133.7140.1125.1134.5143.6153.6163.7161.2162.9164.1161.4164.4164.6165.5166.3165.2162.9162.9163.0167.1167.0166.5163.2162.1158.3158.5158.81591160 5161.5Electricalmachinery8.0522.223.021.629.629.834.039.034.739.943.142.839.247.651.654.862.964.768.481.797.9100.0105.5111.9108.1107.7122.2143.1143.8116.5134.8145.4159.4174.0171.2173.1174.3170.6174.6175.1174.7172.1176.7177.3179.5181.6181.7179.2179.2177.0171.4166.6165,0166.7167 8169 9171.9TransportationequipmentTotal9.2731.834.834.941.846.654.268.059.268.066.070.755.863.265.461.571.178.080.095.1102.0100.0111.1108.489.597.9108.2118.3108.797.4111.1122.2132.5135.4141.5140.0143.4131.6141.8139.3135.2125.2131.8133.3128.3127.3122.1125.7123.8115.1109.8110.0110.7108.3112 9118 9120.9Motorvehiclesandparts4.5060.581.265.869.051.066.274.765.579.888.390.7115.9113.9100.0120.3116.592.3118.6135.8148.8128.2111.1142.0161.1169.9159.9178.7173.3179.7156.0175.8169.0159.2138.5150.3150.1139.3137.1126.2133.9130.1114.7105.9106.7107.9104.4113.4124 7128.3Lumberandproducts1.6458.961.354.165.765.564.768.468.075.975.068.869.979.3' 74.778.282.586.392.796.3100.0100.0105.5107.9105.6113.8120.8126.0116.2107.6123.2131.2136.3136.9137.3137.2137.7137.2135.8136.8135.2138.5138.6138.7135.9132.4131.6130.2125.3105.2104.5109.7112.8121.7122.7121.4Nondurable manufacturesApparelproducts3.3157.860.359.764.363.166.367.266.473.375.074.972.880.181.782.285.589.192.297.499.9100.0102.9106.7101.4104.7109.4117.3114.3107.6125.7134.2134.2134.4136.0138.0138.5134.0133.1136.4132.7132.5135.7131.5133.5131.1131.5133.8136.1131.3128.6127.2121.5123.8Printingandpublishing4.7243.345.446.648.949.749.752.054.159.563.265.463.968.271.071,373.977.882.687.994.6100.0103.2107.4107.0107.1112.7118.2118.2113.3122.5127.6131.5136.9135.6138.2137.3135.7136.8136.9135.6137.7137.2137.2136.2137.8138.9139.9139.2136.5135.5135.4138.6140.31401141 514214Chemirakltd 15andproducts7.7419.721.321.026.229.731.133.634.139.842.745.246.654.356.459.265.771.878.887.895.7100.0109.5118.4120.4125.9143.6154.5159.4147.2170.9185.7197.4211.8207.5209.7210.4209.3211.2209.6211.8214.8212.8212.9215.3216.8218.0217.4213.6209.1199.2191.1190.3197.8206 0210.4Foods8.7555.855.255.957.959.060.261.462.766.370.171.172.976.578.680.983.486.490.492.496.0100.0102.6106.1108.9112.8116.8120.9124.0123.4133.0138.8142.7147.5143.9145.3147.4146.8148.3149.0148.9147.5148.1147.7147.9148.4148.5149.0149.3147.8149.5149.0148.9148.3148.7149.2Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.280
TABLE B-43.—Capacity utilization rate in manufacturing, 1948-80[Percent; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]Year or quarterTotalmanufacturingFRB series JPrimaryprocessingAdvancedprocessingDurablegoodsCommerce series 2TotalmanufacturingNondurablegoodsPrimaryprocessedgoodsAdvancedprocessedgoodsWharton series 3DurablegoodsTotalmanufacturingNondurabgood;1948194982.574.287.276.280.073.319501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197982.885.885.489.280.387 186483 775.281.980.277.481683.585.689 691.186.987.186.279 378.483.587.683.872.979 581.984.485.788.590.284.989.480.692189 784.775.483.479.877.981.683.887.891.191.485.787.788.582.982.388.292.587.873.781.984.086.988.179.883.485.989.380.184 384 583.175.181.180.477.281.783.484.688.991.287.686.885.077.476.381.085.081.572.578.280.883.084.3868684858581808386837781838483888783848478788285827681848483858685868683838586847982828382898887868783828589857682838484858583848479808284827781838482•"'88.190 587 984.074.278.976.973.776577.779.584.288.286.989.290.184.082.687.792.990.279.485.588.190.992.685.388 385.381.668.073.771.967.771.873.475.682.388.086.288.889.480.678.184.291.588.775.981.884.889.291.792.939187.83.86.84.8283.83.8586.88.87.89.91.88.89.92.94.92.84.90.92.93.941975:1||IllIV1976:1II.IllIV1977:IIIIllIV1978:ii • ;.;...IllIV70.370.774.676.178.479 580.080.080.782.182.482.682.083.985.286.469.970.476.278.481.081982.682.182.284.484.584.784.086.387.989.570.471.073.874.977.078178.578.879.880.881.381.380.982.783.784.6757579798282808183848282848483847473787781837981848682828485838576788081828182828282828283828283757378788383828083848282838484857576797981827982848482838484828477.077.381.082.284.785.585.886.086.888.288.588.788.490.491.693.174.874.177.177.580.482.082.782.482.984.985.486.085.888.590.292.480.81.86.89.90.90.90.90.92.93.92.92.92.93.93.94.1979:|IIIllIV1980:1||III86.985.985.384.483.477 975.789.088.288.386.985.176.372.985.784.783.783.082.578 777.3848382818076768584828080747583828282817878858483838175748483818080767793.792.792.391.891.385.783.593.191.991.090.789.883.480.294.93.94.93.93.88.88.1 For description of the series, see "Federal Reserve Measures of Capacity and Capacity Utilization," February 1978.2 Quarterly data are for last month in quarter. Annual data are averages of the (our indexes, except for 1965 (December index) and1966-67 {averages of June and December indexes). For description of the series, see "Survey of Current Business," July 1974.3 Annual data are averages of quarterly indexes. For description of the series, see F. Gerard Adams and Robert Summers, "TheWharton Index of Capacity Utilization: A Ten Year Perspective, 1973 Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section,American Statisticaf Association.Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and WhartonSchool of Finance.281
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Economic Reportof the PresidentTran
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ECONOMIC REPORTOF THE PRESIDENT
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We have heard much about American i
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at an approach that took account of
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een due to overall demand in the ec
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to $27.5 billion in the new budget
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ductions would amount to over $27 b
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10 percent inflation rate, keeping
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tutes for petroleum. The Synthetic
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esponse can be so large as to wipe
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSCHAPTER 1. INFLATION AND GR
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PageChallenges to the International
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CHAPTER 1Inflation and Growth in th
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needed to control inflation by resi
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decline in productivity growth may
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Chart 1Standard Unit Labor CostsPER
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end of 1974 the world price of oil
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price decisions cannot easily be re
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Federal budget achieved a surplus.
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As an abrupt increase in the price
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policies but are based on the wides
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tion, and can policies be designed
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duction and employment to grow only
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Moreover, their actions must indica
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Starting with its 1975 targets as a
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well after the fact whether the mon
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Reserve provides some flexibility i
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in response to circumstances in par
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Although the flexibility of TIPs ma
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ard or that thought the administrat
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given standard, as the reward and t
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large firms. Even among large firms
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cause declining productivity growth
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vanced technology and will therefor
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ather than restoring the growth of
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correct some of the distortions in
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higher than it would otherwise be b
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EXPECTED PRODUCTIVITY GAINSAlthough
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supply of adult men in the work for
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increase demand pressures, especial
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time hours also has drawbacks. For
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eintroduce the problem of changing
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CHAPTER 2Improving the Adaptability
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use less and produce more energy in
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expectation of price controls or fu
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dependence on foreign oil mean that
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While the market solution might pro
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High energy prices and excessive de
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part, the interests of these partie
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Federal regulations designed to pro
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Agency (EPA) from considering prosp
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other things, that federally assist
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ing services. Money-market mutual f
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holdings of consumer and business l
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they once had and thus cannot conti
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finding ways around outdated regula
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proportion of the existing farms pr
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prices for years in the future, reg
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derground water resources once thou
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comprehensive, actuarial crop insur
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duced a decline in the median age o
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elude government investments in loc
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some of the firms in the chosen sec
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CHAPTER 3The Economy: Review and Pr
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uild up oil inventories and maintai
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Chart 7Selected Interest Ratesand B
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had risen just 2 months earlier. By
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Chart 8Personal Saving RatePERCENT1
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chief cyclical determinant of housi
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ment were sharply diminished by the
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dropped even faster, in large part
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ployment grew more vigorously after
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terials fell for a full third of th
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1979, slowed to a 19 percent annual
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costs of production. The evidence s
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sharp decline in output in the seco
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ecord high interest rates during th
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automatic transfer services (ATS) n
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plunged in March, although the only
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(FHLB) System increased their borro
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THE PROSPECTS FOR 1981 AND 1982In 1
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expectations. Of course, if the eco
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The uncertainty of developments in
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produce a slight decline in the sav
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more rapid growth thereafter. Durin
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eemergence of modest but sustained
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hike would depend on many factors,
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major revision of the NIPA occurred
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per year. This modest acceleration
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THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES: TRENDS AN
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Chart 10Labor Costs, Value-Added De
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Rather, the German current account
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TABLE 30.—Inflation in major indu
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THE GLOBAL OIL MARKETTable 31 summa
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may be preserved. Stocks are in fac
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straint on growth. Finally, policie
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outside government, both at home an
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ates are high, differences in polic
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Japanese trade performance in volum
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No "Say's Law" operates in internat
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the cost of the loans, and they may
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At the same time, access to the IMF
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to closer cooperation is to risk a
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While all countries, in attempting
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threats of disruption, market-shari
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Past Council Members and their date
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1977 to review selected analyses of
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The Chairman and the Council Member
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University). Kate Stith Pressman, s
Page 235 and 236: CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
Page 237 and 238: GOVERNMENT FINANCE'—ContinuedB-72
Page 239 and 240: NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
Page 241 and 242: TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
Page 243 and 244: TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflato
Page 245 and 246: TABLE B-5.—Implicit price deflato
Page 251 and 252: TABLE B-10.—Gross national produc
Page 253 and 254: TABLE B-12.—Output, costs, and pr
Page 255 and 256: TABLE B-14.—Gross private domesti
Page 257 and 258: TABLE B-16.—Inventories and final
Page 259 and 260: TABLE B-18.—Relation of national
Page 261 and 262: TABLE B-19-—National income by ty
Page 263 and 264: Year orquarter192919331939194019411
Page 265 and 266: TABLE B-22.—Total and per capita
Page 267 and 268: Year orquarterTotalTotalCurrencyand
Page 269 and 270: TABLE B-26.—Population by age gro
Page 271 and 272: TABLE B-27.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 273 and 274: Year or monthTABLE B-29.—Selected
Page 275 and 276: TABLE B-31.—Unemployment rate by
Page 277 and 278: TABLE B-33.—Unemployment by reaso
Page 279 and 280: TABLE B-35.—Wage and salary worke
Page 281 and 282: TABLE B-37.—Average weekly earnin
Page 283 and 284: TABLE B-39.—Changes in productivi
Page 288 and 289: TABLE B-44;—New construction acti
Page 290 and 291: TABLE B-45.—New housing units sta
Page 292 and 293: TABLE B-47.—Sales and inventories
Page 294 and 295: TABLE B-49.—Manufacturers' new an
Page 296 and 297: TABLE B-51.—Consumer price indexe
Page 298 and 299: 19391940194119421943194419451946194
Page 300 and 301: TABLE B-54.—Changes in special co
Page 302 and 303: TABLE B-55.—Producer price indexe
Page 304 and 305: TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
Page 306 and 307: TABLE B-58.—Changes in producer p
Page 308 and 309: TABLE B-60.—Components of money s
Page 310 and 311: TABLE B-62.— Total funds raised i
Page 312 and 313: TABLE B-63.—Federal Reserve Bank
Page 314 and 315: TABLE B-65.—Bond yields and inter
Page 316 and 317: TABLE B-66—Consumer credit outsta
Page 318 and 319: TABLE B-68.—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 320 and 321: GOVERNMENT FINANCETABLE B-70.—Fed
Page 322 and 323: TABLE B-l\.—Federal budget receip
Page 324 and 325: TABLE B-73.—Government receipts a
Page 326 and 327: TABLE B-75.—State and local gover
Page 328 and 329: TABLE B-77,—Interest-bearing publ
Page 330 and 331: TABLE B-79-—Maturity distribution
Page 332 and 333: TABLE B-81.—Corporate profits by
Page 334 and 335: TABLE B-83.—Sales, profits, and s
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TABLE B-85.—Relation of profits a
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TABLE B-87.—Sources and uses of f
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TABLE B-89-—State and municipal a
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TABLE B-91.—Business formation an
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TABLE B-93.—Farm output ami produ
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Year or month1940194119421943194419
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TABLE B-97.—Balance sheet of the
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TABLE B-99— U.S. international tr
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TABLE B-100.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-102.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-104.— World trade: Export
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TABLE B-106.—International reserv
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• • ' •TABLE B-108.—Industr
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TABLE B-110.—Summary of major U.S
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