Vergara - 1976 - Physiological and morphological adaptability of ri

GEOGKAPIIH’ mo) CLIMATE OF RICE 49
totals probably have not changed; the change is in the spatial and temporal distribution.
ORA: What is your statistical technique to estimate the interrelationship between weather
variability‘ and grain-production variability?
Hake: The only test I used was the Spearrnan coefficient. This was used. not to show cause
and effect which it was not designed to do. but only to indicate that rainfall of the main growing
season and yield of sesame and maize y'ary in relation to each other. Spearrnan was chosen
because in this case I had only 12 pairs oftigurcs.
JACKSON: Would you agree that the new rice varieties thus far developed are primanb" dryseason
varieties? In view of the energy crisis should more emphasis be placed on the “core“ area.
especially‘ the “deep water" areas‘?
Hit/CG.‘ Without a doubt you are correct! A variety able to significantly increase the yield in
the core areas with aruiual flooding-ie, Bangladesh. portions of Pegu Division in Burma.
major sections of the Chao Praya Delta. and sections of the Mekong Delta-would be mos!
welcome and would promise greater food production with little increase in the use of fossil
fuels.
SASTRY’: Intercropping and multiple cropping are already practiced in the Telangana area of
Andhra Pradesh. The main problem in successfully planning production of these crops is our
limited ability to forecast seasonal weather. rather than development of new techniques of crop
management.
INOUEI How about the Southern Hemisphere?
fluke: In general there are so lbw stations over land areas in the Southern Ilemisphere as
compared to the vast extent of water—that it is dilticult to see just what is happening to ternperature
in the south.
MITCHELL: New Zealand data indicate a substantial rising trend in temperature over the last
20-50 years.
Hoke." This observation agrees with the theory proposed. In the Northem Hemisphere. too.
temperatures of the coastal areas of North America, both east and wesL are apparently rising.
It is in the vast continental interiors that temperatures are on the way down. New Zealand tits
the model as a coastal location without a large continental interior.
CHANDLER: I'd like to comment on areas south of the Equator. lt seems to me that there are
many opportunities for rice growing. particularly‘ in Latin America and South America. On a
trip I made in the past 2U years. l saw that many areas were having trouble with soil drainage.
and with something like tidewater. Plants were flooded out. Peter Jennings. of CIAT. is down
there. and he thinks In terms of normal yields of rice. It seems to me there are low-lying areas
in various South American countries where they should be growing much more rice. Jennings
has started introducing cassava. All I am talking about is the quality of the protein that you get.
You look at a cassava-eating population and you see more malnutrition in that population.
And. of course. in Australia they do not eat much rice. but they have the highest average rice
yields in the world.
NIX: A comment on your Map I. Cultural. linguistic, and ethnic evidences argue for the introduction
of rice and associated cultural techniques to Madagascar (and probably East Africa)
by people from the Indonesian region and no! from India.
fluke: Thank you for the correction. Mr. Nix. I shall correct my map.
CHANDLER. Some of you have been to East Ati-iea. If you want to see a very interesting ricegrowing
project with low input of energy. completely: irrigated look at that project. Two rivers
come down from Nlount Kenja and join there. No pumps are involved in that large ricegrowing
project.
FISCHER: What improvements can be anticipated in the an of precrop season forecasting. i.e..
3 to 6 months long-tenn forecasts ahead of the crop season. Secondly. how would these improvements
affect planting strategies and productivity?
Hake: I have no information.
‘Lao: The [LT.S.] National Weather Service. NOAA. has made monthly temperature and
precipitation forecasts {in terms of above or below normal). They are also experimenting with
a 3-month temperature and precipitation forecast.
NIX: I think the question raised by Dr. Fischer is central to the theme of this symposium. Do
we understand the relationships between climate and crops well enough to be able to predict
what xvould happen if we could predict the yveather ahead?
VERoAiut: In view of the decreasing world temperature. do you think low-temperature