ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT

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for a minimum wage that is too low, and the President continues to call for a higher minimum wage. The President has also worked to improve working conditions and wages by strengthening worker protections. As part of this effort, the Department of Labor completed an update to Federal overtime regulations in early 2016, extending overtime protections to more than 4 million additional workers. Unions also play an important role in supporting working conditions and wages, and the President has worked to ensure that the National Labor Relations Board is able to fulfill its role in enforcing workplace protections and upholding the rights of workers. In addition, the Administration has sought to support new approaches to enabling worker voice. Promoting Educational Opportunity: In contrast to higher minimum wages and changes in tax and transfer policy, which generate immediate reductions in inequality, educational investments pay off over a longer time horizon. Educational investments are critical to ensure equal opportunity for children today and to reduce inequality over the long term. During the recession, the Department of Education provided over $60 billion in funding to states to support education budgets, and these resources helped prevent layoffs of education workers at a time when State and local spending was being cut. As part of the Recovery Act, the Administration encouraged states to raise educational standards, turn around the lowest-performing schools, develop effective support for teachers and leaders, and create uniform data systems to enhance instruction through the Administration’s Race-to-the-Top initiative. Today, as a result of this initiative, nearly every state has adopted college and career-ready standards. The bipartisan Every Student Succeeds Act, which the President signed into law in December 2015, codifies the requirement that every state set academic standards that prepare students for college and careers, and that the state intervene to improve both their lowest-performing 5 percent of schools as well as schools where too many students do not graduate on time—principles that were central to the funding provided under the Recovery Act. In 2014, the Administration invested $750 million in new resources to expand access to high quality early education programs, through Early Head Start-Child Care Partnership grants for infants and toddlers and Preschool Development Grants to states. Today, all but 4 States are investing in preschool, with more than 40 percent of four-year olds in the United States enrolled in publicly funded preschool. In addition, the Administration announced the availability of $135 million in competitively awarded grants to expand Early Head Start and create new Early Head Start-Child Care Partnerships in 2016, building on Progress Reducing Inequality | 179
$294 million in newly appropriated funds for fiscal year 2016 to ensure that more Head Start children will receive services for a full school day and full school year. The Administration has also provided new funds to support the implementation of new requirements in the reauthorized Child Care and Development Block Grant Act of 2014. The Administration has also made progress in promoting college opportunity, affordability, and completion by expanding Pell Grants and tax credits; making student loans more affordable by cutting interest rates and allowing borrowers to cap student loan payments at 10 percent of income; making access to financial aid and college information simpler and faster; and promoting innovation and competition to bring down costs and improve college quality. Today, more students are graduating college than ever, and student loan defaults and delinquencies are trending downward. Lastly, the Administration has worked to increase training and skills for workers during their careers. In 2015, the President signed into law the first-ever annual funding for apprenticeship grants, totaling $90 million. These investments follow earlier investments through the American Apprenticeship Grants to promote and expand jobdriven apprenticeship programs in the United States. In addition, the Administration has launched a series of initiatives, partnerships, and grants to facilitate training for the American workforce. In April 2015, the White House hosted an Upskill Summit at which the President called on companies to expand education benefits and training opportunities, and employers have responded to this call—the Aspen Institute’s Upskill America Initiative reports that participating companies have enhanced the skills of tens of thousands of frontline workers. The Department of Labor has also awarded a wide variety of competitive training grants. These grants have ranged from TechHire grants, which are supporting public-private partnerships to help train tomorrow’s workforce in rapidgrowth sectors, to America’s Promise Job-Driven Training grants, which are creating and expanding innovative regional and sector partnerships between community colleges and the workforce system to create more tuition-free education and training programs for in-demand middle and high-skilled jobs across the country. 180 | Chapter 3
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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eforms in history. Banks have sharp
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1: EIGHT YE
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. THE ECONOMIC RATIONALE FOR FEDERA
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2.4. Government Purchases as Share
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4.iii. Premium for the Benchmark Pl
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6.18. Systemic Risk (SRISK) 2005-20
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C H A P T E R 1 EIGHT YEARS OF RECO
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Figure 1-1 Actual and Consensus For
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Figure 1-3 Real Hourly Wage Growth
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP per Capita: Eur
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Figure 1-6 Household Net Worth in t
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Figure 1-8 Global Trade Flows in th
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Subsequent revisions to fourth-quar
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Percent 6 Figure 1-9 Fiscal Expansi
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substantial costs to the Federal Go
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worked to promote innovation and in
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expansion, a period of low producti
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The 2017 Economic Report of the Pre
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Chapter 4: Reforming the Health Car
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to the ACA and other factors. The A
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than 98 percent of Americans should
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Figure 1-13 Borrowers in Income Dri
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success of the financial rescue and
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einforced U.S. leadership in the ru
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Partnership (OGP), a global partner
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Figure 1-16 Labor Productivity Grow
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Labor Force Participation Household
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number of steps to ensure that econ
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C H A P T E R 2 THE YEAR IN REVIEW
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Percent 11 Figure 2-1 Unemployment
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allowing for additional investments
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Percentage Point 0.6 0.4 Figure 2-3
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public, largely highway constructio
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The size of the Federal Reserve’s
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Figure 2-5 Private-Sector Payroll E
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fell 80 percent from September 2014
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Figure 2-8 Rates of Part-Time Work,
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Figure 2-v Prime-Age Male Labor For
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Output Real GDP grew 1.6 percent ov
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Figure 2-11 Compensation and Consum
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Table 2-i Optimal Weighting for Hou
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esults suggest that, to a first app
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Figure 2-viii Real GDP, Average and
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Figure 2-13 Consumer Sentiment and
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Figure 2-xi Household Debt Service,
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Ratio to Annual DPI 1.10 1.05 Figur
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Figure 2-17 National House Price In
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Index 220 Figure 2-19 Housing Affor
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Figure 2-21 Composition of Growth i
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Figure 2-23 Capital Services per Un
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Box 2-7: Explanations for the Recen
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Figure 2-xv Business Fixed Investme
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Figure 2-26 Foreign Real GDP and U.
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somewhat generalizable (Box 2-8), b
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prices weakened and the global econ
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inadequate demand has contributed t
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Figure 2-31 Nominal Wage Inflation
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Figure 2-33 Real Hourly Wage Growth
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Index 6 Figure 2-36 Financial Condi
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Percent 4.0 Figure 2-38 Nominal Lon
Page 134 and 135: Dollars per Barrel 80 Figure 2-40 B
Page 136 and 137: Figure 2-41 IMF World Real GDP Grow
Page 138 and 139: against the Mexican peso, the Chine
Page 140 and 141: United Kingdom It has been a turbul
Page 142 and 143: for example, Japan has grown almost
Page 144 and 145: Figure 2-45 Credit to Nonfinancial
Page 146 and 147: Meanwhile, core inflation (excludin
Page 148 and 149: kept rates low across a wide range
Page 150 and 151: Investments in surface transportati
Page 152 and 153: Table 2-2 Supply-Side Components of
Page 154: Conclusion The economy continued to
Page 157 and 158: not increased from 1973 to 2013, in
Page 159 and 160: developments; individual behavior;
Page 161 and 162: action affecting income inequality
Page 163 and 164: have occurred. In doing so, these p
Page 165 and 166: Percent 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 African
Page 167 and 168: without the policy response.5 These
Page 169 and 170: Box 3-2: Income Inequality and the
Page 171 and 172: unable to obtain insurance at any p
Page 173 and 174: Figure 3-7B Percent 50 Uninsured Ra
Page 175 and 176: and have not expanded Medicaid foun
Page 177 and 178: Box 3-3: Safety Net Policies as Ins
Page 179 and 180: Millions of People 18 Figure 3-8 Im
Page 181 and 182: Figure 3-9 Effective Tax Rates for
Page 183: Box 3-4: Additional Actions to Make
Page 187 and 188: 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Figure 3-12 Pe
Page 189 and 190: Administration with those of previo
Page 191 and 192: as a share of potential GDP by Pres
Page 193 and 194: Figure 3-17 Changes in the Distribu
Page 195 and 196: 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Single Source: C
Page 197 and 198: ate on capital gains and dividends
Page 200 and 201: C H A P T E R 4 REFORMING THE HEALT
Page 202 and 203: eneficiaries have received cumulati
Page 204 and 205: form of lower premium costs and ind
Page 206 and 207: Percent 25 20 Creation of Medicare
Page 208 and 209: Figure 4-3 Health Insurance Coverag
Page 210 and 211: 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 25 55
Page 212 and 213: Percent Uninsured 25 CHIP Created 2
Page 214 and 215: Legislative actions subsequent to C
Page 216 and 217: Percent Uninsured 40 35 Figure 4-7
Page 218 and 219: ecause of the ACA’s provision all
Page 220 and 221: Box 4-2: Dynamics in the Individual
Page 222 and 223: projected during the debate over th
Page 224 and 225: whelming majority of Marketplace en
Page 226 and 227: Figure 4-v Change in Benchmark Prem
Page 228 and 229: 20 Figure 4-10 Share of Workers in
Page 230 and 231: percent during the decade preceding
Page 232 and 233: Panel A: Share with a Personal Doct
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Box 4-3: Interpreting Results from
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Fortunately, the OHIE is not the on
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Figure 4-14 Uncompensated Care as a
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Figure 4-15 Uninsured Rate by Popul
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Figure 4-17 Monthly Gain in Private
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Change in Working-Age Employment to
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this cross-sectional relationship b
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ecent discussions of macroeconomic
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Figure 4-23 Life Expectancy at Birt
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Figure 4-24 Mortality Rate vs. Medi
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more to cover Medicare patients tha
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example, through CMMI, the Administ
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orient payment around the entirety
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Percent of Payments 60 Figure 4-26
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covered under ACO contracts at the
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Additional Steps to Reform the Heal
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legislation that overrides the reco
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Figure 4-28 Health Care Price Infla
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Figure 4-30 Trends in Real Prices f
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average growth rate of real per enr
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Figure 4-34 Growth in Real Costs fo
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made a large, readily quantifiable
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in states experiencing weaker and s
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distribution, holding fixed both sp
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individuals among individuals 65 an
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Figure 4-40 Average Real Deductible
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Figure 4-41 Real Per-Enrollee Presc
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educe the growth rate of Medicare s
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improvements will strengthen ACOs
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-5 0 -2 Figure 4-42 Cumulative Perc
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Woolhandler 2015). These analysts a
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productivity on the job. These bene
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Figure 4-46 Premiums and Cost Shari
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(KFF 2016). Another fifth of tradit
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2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018
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C H A P T E R 5 INVESTING IN HIGHER
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Gainful Employment regulations. To
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Thousands of 2015 Dollars 900 800 7
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externalities, credit constraints,
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Figure 5-4 Earnings by Age and Educ
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Figure 5-5 Variation in Earnings by
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Box 5-1: Anti-Poverty Efforts and E
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careers. Some of the effects of the
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eligibility cutoff likewise finds s
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Box 5-2: Federal Investments in K-1
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Evaluations of early local Promise
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America’s College Promise Playboo
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Dollars 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000
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pre-payment penalty. Second, by tyi
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equirements, pushed efforts associa
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Figure 5-16 Size of Outstanding Loa
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Figure 5-17 Average Monthly Payment
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Figure 5-18 Distribution of Key Out
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Figure 5-20 Earnings by Family Inco
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to student needs and improve test s
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Box 5-5: Making Sure Students Enter
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prior, the early FAFSA reform helps
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Figure 5-ii Number of Institutions
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Figure 5-23 Gainful Employment Earn
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Additionally, Pell Grants can be be
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C H A P T E R 6 STRENGTHENING THE F
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with no easy way to get the funds f
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public has limited information, run
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value added of the sector has gradu
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managers. Thus, after fees, savers
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Too Many Resources in Finance? Beyo
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of the firm after the purchase affe
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Percent 100 Figure 6-2 Mortgage Ori
Page 370 and 371:
Figure 6-4 Case-Shiller Home Price
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Figure 6-7 Global OTC Derivative Ma
Page 374 and 375:
consumer and investor protections.
Page 376 and 377:
Figure 6-iv Top 5 Banks as Share of
Page 378 and 379:
cult to replace with services from
Page 380 and 381:
Are U.S. Banks Too Big? The questio
Page 382 and 383:
The three federal banking agencies
Page 384 and 385:
Risk Taking The Dodd-Frank Act took
Page 386 and 387:
Box 6-3: The Performance of Communi
Page 388 and 389:
Figure 6-ix Return on Assets of Ban
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egulators can take a more holistic
Page 392 and 393:
Figure 6-13 Repo and Reverse Repo,
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Figure 6-15 Private Funds Reporting
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Days 60 Figure 6-16 Weighted-Averag
Page 398 and 399:
Figure 6-18 Systemic Risk (SRISK),
Page 400 and 401:
In the absence of another financial
Page 402 and 403:
lower funding costs in 2007-09, “
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through the Dodd-Frank Act and othe
Page 406 and 407:
Prior to the financial crisis, one
Page 408 and 409:
asis.24 One of the advantages of ce
Page 410 and 411:
findings from the NRSRO examination
Page 412 and 413:
Prior to the crisis, enforcement of
Page 414 and 415:
Box 6-5: Addressing the Problem of
Page 416 and 417:
Table 6-i Sources of Investment Adv
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financial system and the systems of
Page 420 and 421:
Box 6-6: The JOBS Act While it was
Page 422 and 423:
Figure 6-23 S&P 500, 2003-2016 Inde
Page 424 and 425:
Figure 6-27 Mortgage Delinquency an
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It created the FSOC to consider ris
Page 429 and 430:
energy efficient and lower greenhou
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of domestic actions to reduce green
Page 433 and 434:
people and vegetation (U.S. Global
Page 435 and 436:
investment are much higher than the
Page 437 and 438:
Delaying Action on Climate Change I
Page 439 and 440:
uses and land management activities
Page 441 and 442:
Carbon Pollution Standards for Powe
Page 443 and 444:
a projected range of $16 billion to
Page 445 and 446:
these resulted in insignificant cha
Page 447 and 448:
Figure 7-4 Corporate Average Fuel E
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diesel fuel and jet fuel. The Vehic
Page 451 and 452:
Box 7-3: Building Resilience to Cur
Page 453 and 454:
sources in the oil and gas sector,
Page 455 and 456:
emissions and total greenhouse gas
Page 457 and 458:
Figure 7-7 Energy Intensity of Real
Page 459 and 460:
Figure 7-10 U.S. Petroleum Consumpt
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Figure 7-12 Energy Intensity Transp
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Figure 7-14c Energy Intensity Comme
Page 465 and 466:
Figure 7-16 U.S. Energy Consumption
Page 467 and 468:
2008 to 7 percent in 2015. Figure 7
Page 469 and 470:
Index, 2008 =0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 Figure
Page 471 and 472:
Figure 7-23 Decomposition of Emissi
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three determinants of emissions? If
Page 475 and 476:
Percent 100 80 Figure 7-26 Sectoral
Page 477 and 478:
characteristics, and management tre
Page 479 and 480:
oil and gas sector) were subsequent
Page 481 and 482:
while creating new jobs and raising
Page 483 and 484:
such as using similar methodologies
Page 485 and 486:
Box 7-4: Supporting Increased Penet
Page 487 and 488:
sector, the fee would incentivize p
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to be used to decompose emissions i
Page 491 and 492:
Reinvestment Act.” NBER Working P
Page 493 and 494:
D’Amico, Stefania, et al. 2012.
Page 495 and 496:
______. 2016. “Chapter 3: Develop
Page 497 and 498:
Chetty, Raj, et al. 2014. “Where
Page 499 and 500:
NBER Working Paper 22170. Cambridge
Page 501 and 502:
American Hospital Association and H
Page 503 and 504:
Cantor, Joel C., et al. 2012. “Ea
Page 505 and 506:
______. 2012a. “Direct Spending a
Page 507 and 508:
Dranove, David, Craig Garthwaite, a
Page 509 and 510:
Wars: Global Solutions for Developi
Page 511 and 512:
Huang, Jidong, and Frank J. Chaloup
Page 513 and 514:
McWilliams, J. Michael. 2016. “Ch
Page 515 and 516:
Pinkovskiy, Maxim. 2014. “The Imp
Page 517 and 518:
______. 2016. “Certification of M
Page 519 and 520:
Arcidiacono, Peter, V. Joseph Hotz,
Page 521 and 522:
Bulman, George, and Caroline Hoxby.
Page 523 and 524:
______. 2015a. “Economic Costs of
Page 525 and 526:
Dobbie, Will, and Roland G. Fryer J
Page 527 and 528:
Committee on Health, Education, Lab
Page 529 and 530:
Jepsen, Christopher, Kenneth Troske
Page 531 and 532:
Marcotte, Dave E., et al. 2005. “
Page 533 and 534:
Reynolds, Arthur J., et al. 2011.
Page 535 and 536:
Chapter 6 Acharya, Viral. V., Deniz
Page 537 and 538:
Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. Fre
Page 539 and 540:
Wheelock, David C., and Paul W. Wil
Page 541 and 542:
______. 2016a. “The Economics of
Page 543 and 544:
______. 2016c. Short Term Energy Ou
Page 545 and 546:
Interagency Working Group on the So
Page 547 and 548:
Office of Management and Budget (OM
Page 550:
A P P E N D I X A REPORT TO THE PRE
Page 553 and 554:
Council Members and Their Dates of
Page 556 and 557:
Report to the President on the Acti
Page 558 and 559:
consulting with a wide variety of o
Page 560 and 561:
In October, the Council released a
Page 562 and 563:
Research Economists David Boddy . .
Page 564:
A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
Page 567 and 568:
GOVERNMENT FINANCE, INTEREST RATES,
Page 569 and 570:
Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
Page 571 and 572:
Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
Page 573 and 574:
Table B-3. Quantity and price index
Page 575 and 576:
Table B-5. Real exports and imports
Page 577 and 578:
Year Total Table B-7. Real farm inc
Page 579 and 580:
Table B-9. Median money income (in
Page 581 and 582:
Labor Market Indicators Table B-11.
Page 583 and 584:
Year or month Table B-12. Civilian
Page 585 and 586:
Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
Page 587 and 588:
Year or month Table B-15. Hours and
Page 589 and 590:
Government Finance, Interest Rates,
Page 591 and 592:
Table B-19. Federal receipts and ou
Page 593 and 594:
Table B-21. Federal and State and l
Page 595 and 596:
Table B-23. U.S. Treasury securitie
Page 597 and 598:
Year and month Bills (at auction) 1
Page 599:
Year and month Table B-26. Money st
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