ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT

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Change in Working-Age Employment to Population Ratio vs. Uninsured Rate in 2013, by State, 2013–2015 Change in Age 20-64 Employment to Population Ratio, 2013–2015 (p.p.) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Figure 4-18 Medicaid Non-Expansion States 1.0 Medicaid Expansion States 0.5 0.0 -0.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Uninsured Rate, 2013 (Percent) Note: Medicaid expansion status is as of July 1, 2015. Percentage points denoted p.p. Source: American Community Survey; CEA calculations. Figure 4-19 Change in Number of Full-Time and Part-Time Workers Since March 2010, 2010–2016 Millions of Workers 14 Nov-2016 12 10 8 Full-Time Workers 6 4 2 Part-Time Workers 0 -2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Current Population Survey; CEA calculations. Reforming the Health Care System | 239
Figure 4-20 Change in Average Weekly Hours vs. Uninsured Rate in 2013, by State, 2013–2015 Change in Average Hours Worked for Workers 16-64, 2013–2015 0.7 0.6 Medicaid Non-Expansion States 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 Medicaid Expansion States -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 Uninsured Rate, 2013 (Percent) Note: Medicaid expansion status is as of July 1, 2015. shift toward part-time work, though some studies have found evidence of small effects (Even and Macpherson 2015; Mathur, Slavov, and Strain 2016; Moriya, Selden, and Simon 2016; Dillender, Heinrich, and Houseman 2016). Long-Term Labor Market Benefits The discussion above—like many discussions of the labor market effects of the ACA’s coverage expansions—focuses on how the ACA might directly affect the incentives of workers and firms in the short run. However, there are also mechanisms through which the ACA’s coverage provisions could have longer-run positive effects on labor market outcomes. Most directly, by making workers healthier, the ACA may boost their employment and earnings prospects. Indeed, as discussed above, evidence from prior coverage expansions, together with early evidence on the effects of the ACA, demonstrates that insurance coverage improves both mental and physical health. Furthermore, a variety of evidence indicates that better health improves both individuals’ ability to work and their productivity on the job, which in turn leads to higher employment rates and higher earnings. Indeed, looking across individuals, healthier people have far higher employment rates and earnings, as depicted in Figure 4-21. Moreover, research has documented that adverse health shocks cause sharp reductions in employment and earnings, strongly implying that at least some of 240 | Chapter 4
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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eforms in history. Banks have sharp
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1: EIGHT YE
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. THE ECONOMIC RATIONALE FOR FEDERA
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2.4. Government Purchases as Share
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4.iii. Premium for the Benchmark Pl
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6.18. Systemic Risk (SRISK) 2005-20
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C H A P T E R 1 EIGHT YEARS OF RECO
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Figure 1-1 Actual and Consensus For
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Figure 1-3 Real Hourly Wage Growth
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP per Capita: Eur
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Figure 1-6 Household Net Worth in t
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Figure 1-8 Global Trade Flows in th
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Subsequent revisions to fourth-quar
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Percent 6 Figure 1-9 Fiscal Expansi
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substantial costs to the Federal Go
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worked to promote innovation and in
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expansion, a period of low producti
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The 2017 Economic Report of the Pre
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Chapter 4: Reforming the Health Car
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to the ACA and other factors. The A
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than 98 percent of Americans should
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Figure 1-13 Borrowers in Income Dri
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success of the financial rescue and
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einforced U.S. leadership in the ru
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Partnership (OGP), a global partner
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Figure 1-16 Labor Productivity Grow
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Labor Force Participation Household
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number of steps to ensure that econ
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C H A P T E R 2 THE YEAR IN REVIEW
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Percent 11 Figure 2-1 Unemployment
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allowing for additional investments
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Percentage Point 0.6 0.4 Figure 2-3
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public, largely highway constructio
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The size of the Federal Reserve’s
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Figure 2-5 Private-Sector Payroll E
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fell 80 percent from September 2014
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Figure 2-8 Rates of Part-Time Work,
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Figure 2-v Prime-Age Male Labor For
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Output Real GDP grew 1.6 percent ov
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Figure 2-11 Compensation and Consum
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Table 2-i Optimal Weighting for Hou
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esults suggest that, to a first app
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Figure 2-viii Real GDP, Average and
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Figure 2-13 Consumer Sentiment and
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Figure 2-xi Household Debt Service,
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Ratio to Annual DPI 1.10 1.05 Figur
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Figure 2-17 National House Price In
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Index 220 Figure 2-19 Housing Affor
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Figure 2-21 Composition of Growth i
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Figure 2-23 Capital Services per Un
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Box 2-7: Explanations for the Recen
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Figure 2-xv Business Fixed Investme
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Figure 2-26 Foreign Real GDP and U.
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somewhat generalizable (Box 2-8), b
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prices weakened and the global econ
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inadequate demand has contributed t
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Figure 2-31 Nominal Wage Inflation
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Figure 2-33 Real Hourly Wage Growth
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Index 6 Figure 2-36 Financial Condi
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Percent 4.0 Figure 2-38 Nominal Lon
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Dollars per Barrel 80 Figure 2-40 B
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Figure 2-41 IMF World Real GDP Grow
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against the Mexican peso, the Chine
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United Kingdom It has been a turbul
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for example, Japan has grown almost
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Figure 2-45 Credit to Nonfinancial
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Meanwhile, core inflation (excludin
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kept rates low across a wide range
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Investments in surface transportati
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Table 2-2 Supply-Side Components of
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Conclusion The economy continued to
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not increased from 1973 to 2013, in
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developments; individual behavior;
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action affecting income inequality
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have occurred. In doing so, these p
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Percent 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 African
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without the policy response.5 These
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Box 3-2: Income Inequality and the
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unable to obtain insurance at any p
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Figure 3-7B Percent 50 Uninsured Ra
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and have not expanded Medicaid foun
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Box 3-3: Safety Net Policies as Ins
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Millions of People 18 Figure 3-8 Im
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Figure 3-9 Effective Tax Rates for
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Box 3-4: Additional Actions to Make
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$294 million in newly appropriated
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15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Figure 3-12 Pe
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Administration with those of previo
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as a share of potential GDP by Pres
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Page 195 and 196: 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Single Source: C
Page 197 and 198: ate on capital gains and dividends
Page 200 and 201: C H A P T E R 4 REFORMING THE HEALT
Page 202 and 203: eneficiaries have received cumulati
Page 204 and 205: form of lower premium costs and ind
Page 206 and 207: Percent 25 20 Creation of Medicare
Page 208 and 209: Figure 4-3 Health Insurance Coverag
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Page 212 and 213: Percent Uninsured 25 CHIP Created 2
Page 214 and 215: Legislative actions subsequent to C
Page 216 and 217: Percent Uninsured 40 35 Figure 4-7
Page 218 and 219: ecause of the ACA’s provision all
Page 220 and 221: Box 4-2: Dynamics in the Individual
Page 222 and 223: projected during the debate over th
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Page 226 and 227: Figure 4-v Change in Benchmark Prem
Page 228 and 229: 20 Figure 4-10 Share of Workers in
Page 230 and 231: percent during the decade preceding
Page 232 and 233: Panel A: Share with a Personal Doct
Page 234 and 235: Box 4-3: Interpreting Results from
Page 236 and 237: Fortunately, the OHIE is not the on
Page 238 and 239: Figure 4-14 Uncompensated Care as a
Page 240 and 241: Figure 4-15 Uninsured Rate by Popul
Page 242 and 243: Figure 4-17 Monthly Gain in Private
Page 246 and 247: this cross-sectional relationship b
Page 248 and 249: ecent discussions of macroeconomic
Page 250 and 251: Figure 4-23 Life Expectancy at Birt
Page 252 and 253: Figure 4-24 Mortality Rate vs. Medi
Page 254 and 255: more to cover Medicare patients tha
Page 256 and 257: example, through CMMI, the Administ
Page 258 and 259: orient payment around the entirety
Page 260 and 261: Percent of Payments 60 Figure 4-26
Page 262 and 263: covered under ACO contracts at the
Page 264 and 265: Additional Steps to Reform the Heal
Page 266 and 267: legislation that overrides the reco
Page 268 and 269: Figure 4-28 Health Care Price Infla
Page 270 and 271: Figure 4-30 Trends in Real Prices f
Page 272 and 273: average growth rate of real per enr
Page 274 and 275: Figure 4-34 Growth in Real Costs fo
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Page 278 and 279: in states experiencing weaker and s
Page 280 and 281: distribution, holding fixed both sp
Page 282 and 283: individuals among individuals 65 an
Page 284 and 285: Figure 4-40 Average Real Deductible
Page 286 and 287: Figure 4-41 Real Per-Enrollee Presc
Page 288 and 289: educe the growth rate of Medicare s
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Woolhandler 2015). These analysts a
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productivity on the job. These bene
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Figure 4-46 Premiums and Cost Shari
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(KFF 2016). Another fifth of tradit
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2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018
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C H A P T E R 5 INVESTING IN HIGHER
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Gainful Employment regulations. To
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Thousands of 2015 Dollars 900 800 7
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externalities, credit constraints,
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Figure 5-4 Earnings by Age and Educ
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Figure 5-5 Variation in Earnings by
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Box 5-1: Anti-Poverty Efforts and E
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careers. Some of the effects of the
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eligibility cutoff likewise finds s
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Box 5-2: Federal Investments in K-1
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Evaluations of early local Promise
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America’s College Promise Playboo
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Dollars 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000
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pre-payment penalty. Second, by tyi
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equirements, pushed efforts associa
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Figure 5-16 Size of Outstanding Loa
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Figure 5-17 Average Monthly Payment
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Figure 5-18 Distribution of Key Out
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Figure 5-20 Earnings by Family Inco
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to student needs and improve test s
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Box 5-5: Making Sure Students Enter
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prior, the early FAFSA reform helps
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Figure 5-ii Number of Institutions
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Figure 5-23 Gainful Employment Earn
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Additionally, Pell Grants can be be
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C H A P T E R 6 STRENGTHENING THE F
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with no easy way to get the funds f
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public has limited information, run
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value added of the sector has gradu
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managers. Thus, after fees, savers
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Too Many Resources in Finance? Beyo
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of the firm after the purchase affe
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Percent 100 Figure 6-2 Mortgage Ori
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Figure 6-4 Case-Shiller Home Price
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Figure 6-7 Global OTC Derivative Ma
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consumer and investor protections.
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Figure 6-iv Top 5 Banks as Share of
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cult to replace with services from
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Are U.S. Banks Too Big? The questio
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The three federal banking agencies
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Risk Taking The Dodd-Frank Act took
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Box 6-3: The Performance of Communi
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Figure 6-ix Return on Assets of Ban
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egulators can take a more holistic
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Figure 6-13 Repo and Reverse Repo,
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Figure 6-15 Private Funds Reporting
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Days 60 Figure 6-16 Weighted-Averag
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Figure 6-18 Systemic Risk (SRISK),
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In the absence of another financial
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lower funding costs in 2007-09, “
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through the Dodd-Frank Act and othe
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Prior to the financial crisis, one
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asis.24 One of the advantages of ce
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findings from the NRSRO examination
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Prior to the crisis, enforcement of
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Box 6-5: Addressing the Problem of
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Table 6-i Sources of Investment Adv
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financial system and the systems of
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Box 6-6: The JOBS Act While it was
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Figure 6-23 S&P 500, 2003-2016 Inde
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Figure 6-27 Mortgage Delinquency an
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It created the FSOC to consider ris
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energy efficient and lower greenhou
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of domestic actions to reduce green
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people and vegetation (U.S. Global
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investment are much higher than the
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Delaying Action on Climate Change I
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uses and land management activities
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Carbon Pollution Standards for Powe
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a projected range of $16 billion to
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these resulted in insignificant cha
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Figure 7-4 Corporate Average Fuel E
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diesel fuel and jet fuel. The Vehic
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Box 7-3: Building Resilience to Cur
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sources in the oil and gas sector,
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emissions and total greenhouse gas
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Figure 7-7 Energy Intensity of Real
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Figure 7-10 U.S. Petroleum Consumpt
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Figure 7-12 Energy Intensity Transp
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Figure 7-14c Energy Intensity Comme
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Figure 7-16 U.S. Energy Consumption
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2008 to 7 percent in 2015. Figure 7
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Index, 2008 =0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 Figure
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Figure 7-23 Decomposition of Emissi
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three determinants of emissions? If
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Percent 100 80 Figure 7-26 Sectoral
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characteristics, and management tre
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oil and gas sector) were subsequent
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while creating new jobs and raising
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such as using similar methodologies
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Box 7-4: Supporting Increased Penet
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sector, the fee would incentivize p
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to be used to decompose emissions i
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Reinvestment Act.” NBER Working P
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D’Amico, Stefania, et al. 2012.
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______. 2016. “Chapter 3: Develop
Page 497 and 498:
Chetty, Raj, et al. 2014. “Where
Page 499 and 500:
NBER Working Paper 22170. Cambridge
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American Hospital Association and H
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Cantor, Joel C., et al. 2012. “Ea
Page 505 and 506:
______. 2012a. “Direct Spending a
Page 507 and 508:
Dranove, David, Craig Garthwaite, a
Page 509 and 510:
Wars: Global Solutions for Developi
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Huang, Jidong, and Frank J. Chaloup
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McWilliams, J. Michael. 2016. “Ch
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Pinkovskiy, Maxim. 2014. “The Imp
Page 517 and 518:
______. 2016. “Certification of M
Page 519 and 520:
Arcidiacono, Peter, V. Joseph Hotz,
Page 521 and 522:
Bulman, George, and Caroline Hoxby.
Page 523 and 524:
______. 2015a. “Economic Costs of
Page 525 and 526:
Dobbie, Will, and Roland G. Fryer J
Page 527 and 528:
Committee on Health, Education, Lab
Page 529 and 530:
Jepsen, Christopher, Kenneth Troske
Page 531 and 532:
Marcotte, Dave E., et al. 2005. “
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Reynolds, Arthur J., et al. 2011.
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Chapter 6 Acharya, Viral. V., Deniz
Page 537 and 538:
Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. Fre
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Wheelock, David C., and Paul W. Wil
Page 541 and 542:
______. 2016a. “The Economics of
Page 543 and 544:
______. 2016c. Short Term Energy Ou
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Interagency Working Group on the So
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Office of Management and Budget (OM
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A P P E N D I X A REPORT TO THE PRE
Page 553 and 554:
Council Members and Their Dates of
Page 556 and 557:
Report to the President on the Acti
Page 558 and 559:
consulting with a wide variety of o
Page 560 and 561:
In October, the Council released a
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Research Economists David Boddy . .
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A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
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GOVERNMENT FINANCE, INTEREST RATES,
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Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-3. Quantity and price index
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Table B-5. Real exports and imports
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Year Total Table B-7. Real farm inc
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Table B-9. Median money income (in
Page 581 and 582:
Labor Market Indicators Table B-11.
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Year or month Table B-12. Civilian
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Year or month Table B-15. Hours and
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Government Finance, Interest Rates,
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Table B-19. Federal receipts and ou
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Table B-21. Federal and State and l
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Table B-23. U.S. Treasury securitie
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Year and month Bills (at auction) 1
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Year and month Table B-26. Money st
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