- Page 1 and 2: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
- Page 4: C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
- Page 9 and 10: ate fell by more than any year sinc
- Page 11 and 12: in education from Pre-K all the way
- Page 14: letter of transmittal Council of Ec
- Page 17 and 18: GDP Growth over the Next Three Year
- Page 19 and 20: PROGRESS TO-DATE IN TRANSITIONING T
- Page 21 and 22: 2.40. Brent Crude Oil Prices, 2015-
- Page 23 and 24: 4.46. Premiums and Cost Sharing for
- Page 25 and 26: 2.2. Supply-Side Components of Actu
- Page 27 and 28: The forceful response of the Federa
- Page 29 and 30: Figure 1-2 Private-Sector Payroll E
- Page 31 and 32: growth in the fourth quarter of 200
- Page 33 and 34: and diligent efforts to pay down de
- Page 35 and 36: Figure 1-7 Civilian Employment in t
- Page 37 and 38: Box 1-1: Revisions to Crisis-Era Da
- Page 39 and 40: measures would end and would not ha
- Page 41 and 42: Department established a temporary
- Page 43 and 44: Box 1-2: The Manufacturing Sector A
- Page 45 and 46: struggled to recover the jobs l
- Page 47 and 48: Figure 1-10a Quarterly Effect of th
- Page 49 and 50: Figure 1-11 Change in Share of Afte
- Page 51 and 52: Figure 1-12 Growth in Real Costs fo
- Page 53 and 54: Box 1-3: The Administration’s Rec
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Figure 1-iii Utility Patent Applica
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Figure 1-14 Tier 1 Common Equity Ra
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Figure 1-15 Decomposition of Total
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2012. From 2009 to 2015, U.S. expor
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participation, and building a resil
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Figure 1-17 Share of Income Earned
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Figure 1-18a Prime-Age Male Labor F
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Figure 1-19 U.S. Net Emissions, 199
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purchases have been roughly neutral
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growth reflects slow labor producti
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udget pressures (Box 2-1).2 In 2016
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Box 2-1: Challenges in the State an
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Figure 2-iii State and Local Govern
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Labor Market The labor market conti
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Box 2-2: Oil Prices and Employment
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Figure 2-6 Actual and Consensus For
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Box 2-3: Male Prime-Age Labor Force
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age men; reforming unemployment ins
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Figure 2-10 Real Growth in GDP, Pri
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Box 2-4: Optimal Weighting for Comb
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Table 2-ii Optimal Weighting for Pa
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Figure 2-vii Labor Force Participat
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growth in part driven by the rapid
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Box 2-6: Household Deleveraging and
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which fell sharply in the Great Rec
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Percent of Housing Units 14 13 Figu
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Figure 2-18 Delinquent and Underwat
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zoning, other land use regulations,
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a year to labor productivity growth
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Figure 2-25 Contribution of Invento
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Figure 2-xiv Decomposition of the I
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a half, consistent with the observa
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Figure 2-27 Contribution of Net Exp
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Figure 2-29 Contributions to Growth
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Box 2-8: Productivity Among the Adv
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Figure 2-xviii Change in Growth in
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productive innovation. There is no
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Figure 2-35 Growth in Real Househol
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Figure 2-37 S&P 500 and VIX, 2015-2
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Figure 2-39 CDS Spreads for North A
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as a market forecast of the 10-year
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Figure 2-42 Real Broad Trade-Weight
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Figure 2-43 Employment and Industri
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Euro area Recovery from the financi
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Figure 2-44 Fiscal Breakeven Oil Pr
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adjusting to changing dynamics in t
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2015 (Actual) Nominal GDP Table 2-1
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Box 2-9: Policy Proposals to Raise
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total factor productivity and there
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tends to grow faster in the nonfarm
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C H A P T E R 3 PROGRESS REDUCING I
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have been under 2008 policies.2 , 3
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Table 3-1 Timeline of Select Recove
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Table 3-I Measures of Inequality, 1
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Figure 3-1 Percent 18 15 Unemployme
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Gini Index 0.66 0.64 Figure 3-4 Ear
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Percent Change in After-Tax Income
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Figure 3-ii Top 1 Percent Income Sh
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Percent of Population Without Healt
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and 9 percentage points for African
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Enacting a Fairer Tax Code In 2008,
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Percent 60 Figure 3-iv Percent of F
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deficit reduction. At the beginning
- Page 182 and 183:
individual Alternative Minimum Tax;
- Page 184 and 185:
for a minimum wage that is too low,
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incomes in the bottom quintile by 1
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20 15 10 5 Figure 3-14 Percent Redu
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Figure 3-15 Change in Bottom 99% Sh
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to policy changes enacted during ea
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tax policy and the coverage provisi
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udgetary flexibility for additional
- Page 198:
Appendix: Distribution of Changes i
- Page 201 and 202:
health insurance coverage by signin
- Page 203 and 204:
The six years since the ACA became
- Page 205 and 206:
Medicare and Medicaid were created
- Page 207 and 208:
Share of Income Required to Purchas
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But these efforts left significant
- Page 211 and 212:
percent were denied coverage, charg
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Box 4-1: Public Health Benefits of
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Figure 4-6 Health Insurance Coverag
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(Marketplaces), web-based markets t
- Page 219 and 220:
Decline in Uninsured Rate, 2013-201
- Page 221 and 222:
silver (or “benchmark”) plan in
- Page 223 and 224:
health status of individual market
- Page 225 and 226:
Figure 4-iv Change in Benchmark Pre
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illustrated in Figure 4-10 (KFF/HRE
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chapter reviews this evidence base,
- Page 231 and 232:
Share of Population Not Receiving N
- Page 233 and 234:
for confidence that expanded insura
- Page 235 and 236:
as the proportional reduction in th
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that the introduction of Medicare l
- Page 239 and 240:
statistical area (MSA), and rural a
- Page 241 and 242:
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
- Page 243 and 244:
currently employed. 15 Contrary to
- Page 245 and 246:
Figure 4-20 Change in Average Weekl
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Figure 4-21 Employment Outcomes for
- Page 249 and 250:
Figure 4-22 Health Care Spending as
- Page 251 and 252:
suggesting that the additional spen
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Government, which pays for the majo
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large health benefits. When decidin
- Page 257 and 258:
and any other services associated w
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Figure 4-25 Medicare Beneficiaries
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is far below the overall return to
- Page 263 and 264:
provide excessively costly and inef
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Percent 100 Figure 4-27 Percent of
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Aggregate spending refers to the to
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3 Figure 4-29 Trends in Real Health
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Panel A: Private Insurance Average
- Page 273 and 274:
Figure 4-33 Nominal Per Enrollee He
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Indeed, Holahan and McMorrow (2015)
- Page 277 and 278:
illustrated in Figure 4-3. As a res
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Figure 4-36 Unemployment Rate, 2006
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Average Age 40 Figure 4-37 Average
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Percent 25 Figure 4-39 Out-of-Pocke
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suggests that changes in the health
- Page 287 and 288:
egan restraining health care spendi
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payments made to providers. These p
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Declines in the Rate of Hospital-Ac
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Figure 4-43 Medicare 30-Day, All-Co
- Page 295 and 296:
Figure 4-44 Projected National Heal
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Figure 4-45 Average Nominal Premium
- Page 299 and 300:
2016 Part D premium was $34.10 per
- Page 301 and 302:
Figure 4-47 Deficit Reduction Due t
- Page 303 and 304:
The reforms included in the ACA and
- Page 305 and 306:
Earnings Ratio 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4
- Page 307 and 308:
Individual Returns to Higher Educat
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Rate 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
- Page 311 and 312:
alone would supply an inefficiently
- Page 313 and 314:
The economics literature provides s
- Page 315 and 316:
students who overestimate costs are
- Page 317 and 318:
permanent in 2015; the refundable p
- Page 319 and 320:
Figure 5-6 Annual Percent Change in
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Figure 5-8 Growth in the Cost of At
- Page 323 and 324:
Figure 5-9 Promise Programs Across
- Page 325 and 326:
Box 5-3: Expansions of Early Educat
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The evidence suggests that, on aver
- Page 329 and 330:
Rate 16 Figure 5-12 Cohort Default
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Figure 5-13 Repayment Distribution
- Page 333 and 334:
Figure 5-14 Borrowers in Income Dri
- Page 335 and 336:
efore entering income-driven repaym
- Page 337 and 338:
crucial role in encouraging student
- Page 339 and 340:
College rankings like Forbes, Money
- Page 341 and 342:
Box 5-4: Improving Information to D
- Page 343 and 344:
Figure 5-21 FAFSA Tax Filing Status
- Page 345 and 346:
Staiger 2014), and feedback from ev
- Page 347 and 348:
Box 5-6: The Rise of the For-Profit
- Page 349 and 350:
Figure 5-22 Relationship Between Un
- Page 351 and 352:
tactics (consistent with a 2010 Gov
- Page 353 and 354:
Better information and regulation o
- Page 355 and 356:
hold more capital and have better a
- Page 357 and 358:
and other non-cash payment methods
- Page 359 and 360:
Box 6-1: Financialization of the U.
- Page 361 and 362:
accounted for half of the industry
- Page 363 and 364:
Figure 6-iii Families with Direct o
- Page 365 and 366:
are due in part to information asym
- Page 367 and 368:
Figure 6-1 Household Net Worth in t
- Page 369 and 370:
Figure 6-3 Subprime Mortgage Origin
- Page 371 and 372:
Figure 6-6 Growth of Shadow Banking
- Page 373 and 374:
these financial institutions and th
- Page 375 and 376:
Box 6-2: A Cross-Country Comparison
- Page 377 and 378:
to the larger financial system as s
- Page 379 and 380:
y scoring banks based on their perc
- Page 381 and 382:
Figure 6-8 Tier 1 Common Equity Rat
- Page 383 and 384:
Figure 6-9 Liquidity Ratio for Larg
- Page 385 and 386:
Figure 6-11 Losses for Large U.S. B
- Page 387 and 388:
Figure 6-viii Average Loan Growth o
- Page 389 and 390:
deposits—from 1.15 percent to 1.3
- Page 391 and 392:
U.S. financial stability, subjectin
- Page 393 and 394:
systemic footprint. In April 2015,
- Page 395 and 396:
market fund boards new tools - liqu
- Page 397 and 398:
Figure 6-18 shows that the SRISK me
- Page 399 and 400:
Box 6-4: Have We Ended “Too-Big-T
- Page 401 and 402:
Scholars using each of these method
- Page 403 and 404:
Overall, the funding advantage of g
- Page 405 and 406:
Basis Points (bps) 500 Figure 6-19
- Page 407 and 408:
Figure 6-20 Global OTC Derivatives
- Page 409 and 410:
Figure 6-21 Interest Rate Derivativ
- Page 411 and 412:
to a shareholder advisory vote on e
- Page 413 and 414:
Additional Investor Protections The
- Page 415 and 416:
Figure 6-xii U.S. Retirement Assets
- Page 417 and 418:
ule does not ban such “conflicted
- Page 419 and 420:
Figure 6-22 International Financial
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tors,” tasked the SEC with ensuri
- Page 423 and 424:
Figure 6-25 Fixed Income Implied Vo
- Page 425 and 426:
peak above 200 in the fall of 2008
- Page 428 and 429:
C H A P T E R 7 ADDRESSING CLIMATE
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generation from natural gas and ren
- Page 432 and 433:
Figure 7-1 Billion-Dollar Event Typ
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will strain Federal fire suppressio
- Page 436 and 437:
climate sensitivity.6 With the poss
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Figure 7-2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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modernization, advanced vehicles an
- Page 442 and 443:
2,200 Figure 7-3 Clean Power Plan P
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Box 7-1: Quantifying the Benefits o
- Page 446 and 447:
uilding use, and 30 percent of indu
- Page 448 and 449:
Box 7-2: Investing in Clean Energy
- Page 450 and 451:
advanced vehicle technologies (CEA
- Page 452 and 453:
adaptation plans, establishing a st
- Page 454 and 455:
of climate change—a critical comp
- Page 456 and 457:
Index, 2000=1 1.3 1.2 Figure 7-5 GD
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Figure 7-9 Energy Intensity Project
- Page 460 and 461:
Petroleum consumption was 2 percent
- Page 462 and 463:
Index, 2003=1 1.1 Figure 7-14a Ener
- Page 464 and 465:
Figure 7-15a Carbon Intensity Proje
- Page 466 and 467:
Figure 7-18 Monthly Share of Non-Hy
- Page 468 and 469:
Figure 7-20 U.S. Non-Hydro Renewabl
- Page 470 and 471:
in the United States where new wind
- Page 472 and 473:
Figure 7-24 Growth Rates of GDP, En
- Page 474 and 475:
Figure 7-25 Decomposition of Total
- Page 476 and 477:
Lower carbon intensity also played
- Page 478 and 479:
Figure 7-27 U.S. Net Emissions base
- Page 480 and 481:
Obama and President Xi made a surpr
- Page 482 and 483:
years, accelerate cost reductions f
- Page 484 and 485:
to increase transparency from Burea
- Page 486 and 487:
As penetration of variable energy r
- Page 488 and 489:
accomplishments in the clean energy
- Page 490 and 491:
REFERENCES Chapter 1 Blinder, Alan
- Page 492 and 493:
IMF Country Report 16/220. Washingt
- Page 494 and 495:
of Governors of the Federal Reserve
- Page 496 and 497:
Chapter 3 Aguiar, Mark, and Mark Bi
- Page 498 and 499:
Dahl, Gordon B., and Lance Lochner.
- Page 500 and 501:
Care Act Implementation; Problems R
- Page 502 and 503:
Baicker, Katherine, et al. 2013.
- Page 504 and 505:
Claxton, Gary, Larry Levitt, and Mi
- Page 506 and 507:
Cutler, David M., Mark McClellan, a
- Page 508 and 509:
NBER Working Paper 21352. Cambridge
- Page 510 and 511:
Health Care Payment Learning & Acti
- Page 512 and 513:
Lee, David, and Frank Levy. 2012.
- Page 514 and 515:
accountable-care-organizations-in-2
- Page 516 and 517:
Shekelle, Paul G. 2015. “Electron
- Page 518 and 519:
White, Chapin, and Vivian Yaling Wu
- Page 520 and 521:
Baum, Sandy, Jennifer Ma, and Kathl
- Page 522 and 523:
______. 2014b. “Measuring the Imp
- Page 524 and 525:
Darolia, Rajeev, et al. 2015. “Do
- Page 526 and 527:
Fain, Paul. 2014. “Benefits of Fr
- Page 528 and 529:
Horn, Laura, Xianlei Chen, and Chri
- Page 530 and 531:
Lavecchia, Adam, Heidi Liu, and Phi
- Page 532 and 533:
Nord, Mark, and Mark Prell. 2011.
- Page 534 and 535:
Sun, Stephen, and Constantine Yanne
- Page 536 and 537:
Berk, Jonathan B., and Richard C. G
- Page 538 and 539:
Statistics and Monetary Affairs. (h
- Page 540 and 541:
Bodnar, Paul, and Dave Turk. 2015.
- Page 542 and 543:
______. 2016f. “Workplace Chargin
- Page 544 and 545:
Farmer, E.D., V.G. Newman, and Pete
- Page 546 and 547:
Lenton, Timothy M., et al. 2008.
- Page 548:
Walsh, Bryan. 2010. “Why the Clim
- Page 552 and 553:
letter of transmittal Council of Ec
- Page 554:
Council Members and Their Dates of
- Page 557 and 558:
University of California, Berkeley
- Page 559 and 560:
that some criminal justice policies
- Page 561 and 562:
The Staff of the Council of Economi
- Page 563 and 564:
Interns Student interns provide inv
- Page 566 and 567:
C O N T E N T S GDP, INCOME, PRICES
- Page 568 and 569:
General Notes Detail in these table
- Page 570 and 571:
Table B-1. Percent changes in real
- Page 572 and 573:
Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
- Page 574 and 575:
Table B-4. Growth rates in real gro
- Page 576 and 577:
Year or quarter Total Table B-6. Co
- Page 578 and 579:
Table B-8. New private housing unit
- Page 580 and 581:
Table B-10. Changes in consumer pri
- Page 582 and 583:
Table B-11. Civilian labor force, 1
- Page 584 and 585:
Year or month Table B-13. Unemploym
- Page 586 and 587:
Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
- Page 588 and 589:
Year or quarter Table B-16. Product
- Page 590 and 591:
Table B-18. Federal receipts, outla
- Page 592 and 593:
Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
- Page 594 and 595:
Table B-22. State and local governm
- Page 596 and 597:
End of month Table B-24. Estimated
- Page 598 and 599:
Table B-25. Bond yields and interes