ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT

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2.4. Government Purchases as Share of Nominal GDP, 1948-2016 ..................71 2.i. Real State and Local Government Purchases During Recoveries, 1960-2016 ......72 2.ii. Real State and Local Consumption, Investment, and Employment, 1955-2016 ....73 2.iii. State and Local Government Surplus as Percent of Nominal GDP, 1950-2016 ...............................................................74 2.5. Private-Sector Payroll Employment, 2008-2016 ..............................77 2.iv. Oil Prices and Mining Employment, 2000-2016 ..............................78 2.6. Actual and Consensus Forecast Unemployment Rate, 2008-2020 ...............80 2.7. Unemployment Rate by Duration, 1990-2016 ................................80 2.8. Rates of Part-Time Work, 1960-2016 .......................................81 2.9. Alternative Measures of Labor Force Underutilization, 2007-2016 ..............81 2.v. Prime-Age Labor Force Participation by Educational Attainment ..............83 2.10. Real Growth in GDP, Private Domestic Final Purchases (PDFP), and Gross Domestic Output (GDO), 2007-2016 .......................................86 2.11. Compensation and Consumer Spending, 1975-2016 ..........................87 2.12. Personal Saving Rate, 2000-2016 ...........................................87 2.vi. Growth Rate of Working-Age Population, 1950-2070 .........................91 2.vii. Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) – Actual vs. Aging Trend, 2007-2016 ...............................................................92 2.viii. Real GDP, Average and Current Business-Cycle Peak to Peak ..................93 2.ix. Actual and Projected Labor Force by Age, 2000-2040 .........................93 2.13. Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Spending, 1980-2016 ....................95 2.14. Household Debt Relative to Disposable Personal Income (DPI), 1995-2016 ......95 2.x. Household Net Worth, 2000-2016 ..........................................96 2.xi. Household Debt Service, 1990-2016 ........................................97 2.xii. Household Debt and Real Consumer Spending Growth, 1970-2016 .............98 2.15. Consumption and Wealth Relative to Disposable Personal Income (DPI), 1950-2016 ...............................................................99 2.16. Year-Round Vacant Housing Units, 2005-2016 .............................100 2.17. National House Price Indexes, 2000-2016 ..................................101 2.18. Delinquent and Underwater Mortgages and Foreclosures, 2009-2016 ..........102 2.19. Housing Affordability Index, 1990-2016 ....................................103 2.20. Single-Family and Multifamily Housing Starts, 2000-2016 ....................103 2.21. Composition of Growth in Real Business Fixed Investment (BFI)..............105 2.22. Net Investment as a Share of Capital Stock, 1945-2015 .......................105 2.23. Capital Services per Unit of Real Output, Private Business Sector, 1948-2016 ...107 2.24. Inventory-to-Sales Ratio: Manufacturing and Trade, 2000-2016 ...............107 2.25. Contribution of Inventory Investment to Real GDP Growth, 2007-2016 ........108 2.xiii. Real Business Fixed Investment, 2007-2016 .................................109 2.xiv. Decomposition of the Investment Slump, 2008-2014 .........................110 2.xv. Business Fixed Investment – Actual vs. Accelerator Model, 1991-2016 .........111 2.26. Foreign Real GDP and U.S. Real Export Growth ............................113 2.27. Contribution of Net Exports to U.S. GDP Growth, 2000-2016 .................114 2.28. Nonfarm Business Productivity, 2004-2016 .................................114 2.29. Contributions to Growth of Labor Productivity, 1953-2015 ...................116 2.30. Labor Productivity and Major Components, 1953-2015 ......................116 2.xvi. Labor Productivity Growth Slowdown in the G-7 ...........................118 2.xvii. Capital Deepening in the G-7 .............................................119 2.xviii. Change in Growth in Components of Productivity in the G-7, 1995-2005 to 2005-2015 ..................................................120 2.31. Nominal Wage Inflation Over Past Year, 2003-2016 .........................121 2.32. Consumer Price Inflation, 2012-2016 ......................................121 2.33. Real Hourly Wage Growth Over Business Cycles (Cycle Peak to Cycle Peak), 1973-2016 ..............................................................123 2.34. Change in Real Median Household Income, 1968-2015 ......................123 2.35. Growth in Real Household Income by Percentile, 2014-2015 ..................124 2.36. Financial Conditions Indices, 2000-2016 ...................................125 2.37. S&P 500 and VIX, 2015-2016 .............................................126 2.38. Nominal Long- and Short- Term Interest Rates, 2016 ........................127 2.39. CDS Spreads for North American Corporate Debt, 2015-2016 ................128 Contents | 15
2.40. Brent Crude Oil Prices, 2015-2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .129 2.41. IMF World Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2010-2021 ..........................131 2.42. Real Broad Trade-Weighted Dollar, 1973-2016 ..............................132 2.43. Employment and Industrial Production Relative to Trend Given High Export Share, 2014-2016 ........................................................134 2.44. Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices by Country, 2015-2017 ..........................138 2.45. Credit to Nonfinancial (Public and Private), 2000-2016 ......................139 3.1. Unemployment Rate by Policy Scenario, 2007-2015 .........................159 3.2. Unemployment Rate by Race, 1970-2016 ...................................160 3.3. Unemployment and Earnings Inequality, 1980-2015 .........................160 3.4. Earnings Inequality, 2000-2015 ...........................................161 3.5. Percent Change in After-Tax Income by Income Percentile: MWP and Recovery Act EITC and CTC Expansion, 2009 .......................................163 3.i. Top 1 Percent Income Share, 2000-2013 ...................................164 3.ii. Top 1 Percent Income Share by Decade, 1980-2013 ..........................165 3.6. Percent Population Without Health Insurance, 1963-2016 ....................167 3.7a. Uninsured Rate by Age Group, 2010 and 2015 ..............................167 3.7b. Uninsured Rate by Race, 2010 and 2015 ....................................168 3.7c. Uninsured Rate by Family Income as Percent of Federal Poverty Level, 2010 and 2015 ..........................................................168 3.iii. Percent of Nonelderly Americans Uninsured for at Least One Month, 1997- 3.iv. 2006 ...................................................................172 Percent of Families with Children Claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit, 1989-2006 ..............................................................173 3.8. Impact of Recovery Act EITC and CTC Improvements on Number of People in Poverty, 2018 .........................................................174 3.9. Effective Tax Rates for a Fixed Pre-Tax Income Distribution, 1960-2017 .......176 3.10. Percent Change in After-Tax Income by Income Percentile: Changes in Tax Policy Since 2009 Excluding ACA Coverage Provisions, 2017 .................176 3.11. Inequality in Market Income, Pre-Tax Income and After-Tax Income, 1979-2013 ..............................................................177 3.v. Real Value of Federal and State Minimum Wages, 1985-2017 .................178 3.12. Percent Change in After-Tax Income by Income Percentile: Changes in Tax Policy Since 2009 and ACA Coverage Provisions, 2017 .......................182 3.13. Change in Share of After-Tax Income by Income Percentile: Changes in Tax Policy Since 2009 and ACA Coverage Provisions, 2017 .......................182 3.14. Percent Reduction in Income Inequality Due to Changes in Tax Policy and ACA Coverage Provisions, 2017 ...........................................183 3.15. Change in Bottom 99% Share of After-Tax Income for a Fixed Pre-Tax Income Distribution, 1960-2016 ..................................................185 3.16. Change in Spending on Major Anti-Inequality Programs by Term, 1968-2016 ..185 3.17. Changes in the Distribution of After-Tax Income ...........................188 3.18. Share of Otherwise-Poor Families Lifted Out of Poverty by the EITC Based on Family Structure, 2012 ...................................................190 4.1. Uninsured Rate, 1963-2016 ...............................................201 4.2. Share of Income Required to Purchase Employer-Sponsored Plan with Average Premium, 2008 .........................................................202 4.3. Health Insurance Coverage Status by Household Income, 2008 ...............203 4.4. Share of Non-Elderly Individuals With and Offer of Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance in the Family, 2008 ......................................205 4.5. Uninsured Rates by Age, 1997-2016 .......................................207 4.i. Estimated Reduction in Smokers in a Cohort of 18 Year-Olds Due to the 2009 Cigarette Tax Increase ...................................................208 4.6. Health Insurance Coverage Status by Age, 2008 .............................210 4.7. Uninsured Rates by Age, 1997-2016 .......................................211 4.8. Decline in Uninsured Rate from 2013 to 2015 vs. Level of Uninsured Rate in 2013, by State ...........................................................214 4.9. Nonelderly Uninsured Rate by Income, 2013 and 2015 .......................214 4.ii. Average Annual Change in Benchmark Premium, by Quintile of 2014 Benchmark Premium, 2014-2017 ..........................................216 16 | Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers
Page 1 and 2: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
Page 4: C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
Page 8 and 9: economic report of the president To
Page 10 and 11: eforms in history. Banks have sharp
Page 12: the annual report of the council of
Page 16 and 17: C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1: EIGHT YE
Page 18 and 19: . THE ECONOMIC RATIONALE FOR FEDERA
Page 22 and 23: 4.iii. Premium for the Benchmark Pl
Page 24 and 25: 6.18. Systemic Risk (SRISK) 2005-20
Page 26 and 27: C H A P T E R 1 EIGHT YEARS OF RECO
Page 28 and 29: Figure 1-1 Actual and Consensus For
Page 30 and 31: Figure 1-3 Real Hourly Wage Growth
Page 32 and 33: Figure 1-4 Real GDP per Capita: Eur
Page 34 and 35: Figure 1-6 Household Net Worth in t
Page 36 and 37: Figure 1-8 Global Trade Flows in th
Page 38 and 39: Subsequent revisions to fourth-quar
Page 40 and 41: Percent 6 Figure 1-9 Fiscal Expansi
Page 42 and 43: substantial costs to the Federal Go
Page 44 and 45: worked to promote innovation and in
Page 46 and 47: expansion, a period of low producti
Page 48 and 49: The 2017 Economic Report of the Pre
Page 50 and 51: Chapter 4: Reforming the Health Car
Page 52 and 53: to the ACA and other factors. The A
Page 54 and 55: than 98 percent of Americans should
Page 56 and 57: Figure 1-13 Borrowers in Income Dri
Page 58 and 59: success of the financial rescue and
Page 60 and 61: einforced U.S. leadership in the ru
Page 62 and 63: Partnership (OGP), a global partner
Page 64 and 65: Figure 1-16 Labor Productivity Grow
Page 66 and 67: Labor Force Participation Household
Page 68 and 69: number of steps to ensure that econ
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C H A P T E R 2 THE YEAR IN REVIEW
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Percent 11 Figure 2-1 Unemployment
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allowing for additional investments
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Percentage Point 0.6 0.4 Figure 2-3
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public, largely highway constructio
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The size of the Federal Reserve’s
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Figure 2-5 Private-Sector Payroll E
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fell 80 percent from September 2014
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Figure 2-8 Rates of Part-Time Work,
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Figure 2-v Prime-Age Male Labor For
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Output Real GDP grew 1.6 percent ov
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Figure 2-11 Compensation and Consum
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Table 2-i Optimal Weighting for Hou
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esults suggest that, to a first app
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Figure 2-viii Real GDP, Average and
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Figure 2-13 Consumer Sentiment and
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Figure 2-xi Household Debt Service,
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Ratio to Annual DPI 1.10 1.05 Figur
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Figure 2-17 National House Price In
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Index 220 Figure 2-19 Housing Affor
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Figure 2-21 Composition of Growth i
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Figure 2-23 Capital Services per Un
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Box 2-7: Explanations for the Recen
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Figure 2-xv Business Fixed Investme
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Figure 2-26 Foreign Real GDP and U.
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somewhat generalizable (Box 2-8), b
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prices weakened and the global econ
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inadequate demand has contributed t
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Figure 2-31 Nominal Wage Inflation
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Figure 2-33 Real Hourly Wage Growth
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Index 6 Figure 2-36 Financial Condi
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Percent 4.0 Figure 2-38 Nominal Lon
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Dollars per Barrel 80 Figure 2-40 B
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Figure 2-41 IMF World Real GDP Grow
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against the Mexican peso, the Chine
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United Kingdom It has been a turbul
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for example, Japan has grown almost
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Figure 2-45 Credit to Nonfinancial
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Meanwhile, core inflation (excludin
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kept rates low across a wide range
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Investments in surface transportati
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Table 2-2 Supply-Side Components of
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Conclusion The economy continued to
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not increased from 1973 to 2013, in
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developments; individual behavior;
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action affecting income inequality
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have occurred. In doing so, these p
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Percent 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 African
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without the policy response.5 These
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Box 3-2: Income Inequality and the
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unable to obtain insurance at any p
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Figure 3-7B Percent 50 Uninsured Ra
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and have not expanded Medicaid foun
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Box 3-3: Safety Net Policies as Ins
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Millions of People 18 Figure 3-8 Im
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Figure 3-9 Effective Tax Rates for
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Box 3-4: Additional Actions to Make
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$294 million in newly appropriated
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15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Figure 3-12 Pe
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Administration with those of previo
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as a share of potential GDP by Pres
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Figure 3-17 Changes in the Distribu
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30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Single Source: C
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ate on capital gains and dividends
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C H A P T E R 4 REFORMING THE HEALT
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eneficiaries have received cumulati
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form of lower premium costs and ind
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Percent 25 20 Creation of Medicare
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Figure 4-3 Health Insurance Coverag
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90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 25 55
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Percent Uninsured 25 CHIP Created 2
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Legislative actions subsequent to C
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Percent Uninsured 40 35 Figure 4-7
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ecause of the ACA’s provision all
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Box 4-2: Dynamics in the Individual
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projected during the debate over th
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whelming majority of Marketplace en
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Figure 4-v Change in Benchmark Prem
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20 Figure 4-10 Share of Workers in
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percent during the decade preceding
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Panel A: Share with a Personal Doct
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Box 4-3: Interpreting Results from
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Fortunately, the OHIE is not the on
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Figure 4-14 Uncompensated Care as a
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Figure 4-15 Uninsured Rate by Popul
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Figure 4-17 Monthly Gain in Private
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Change in Working-Age Employment to
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this cross-sectional relationship b
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ecent discussions of macroeconomic
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Figure 4-23 Life Expectancy at Birt
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Figure 4-24 Mortality Rate vs. Medi
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more to cover Medicare patients tha
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example, through CMMI, the Administ
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orient payment around the entirety
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Percent of Payments 60 Figure 4-26
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covered under ACO contracts at the
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Additional Steps to Reform the Heal
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legislation that overrides the reco
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Figure 4-28 Health Care Price Infla
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Figure 4-30 Trends in Real Prices f
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average growth rate of real per enr
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Figure 4-34 Growth in Real Costs fo
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made a large, readily quantifiable
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in states experiencing weaker and s
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distribution, holding fixed both sp
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individuals among individuals 65 an
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Figure 4-40 Average Real Deductible
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Figure 4-41 Real Per-Enrollee Presc
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educe the growth rate of Medicare s
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improvements will strengthen ACOs
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-5 0 -2 Figure 4-42 Cumulative Perc
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Woolhandler 2015). These analysts a
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productivity on the job. These bene
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Figure 4-46 Premiums and Cost Shari
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(KFF 2016). Another fifth of tradit
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2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018
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C H A P T E R 5 INVESTING IN HIGHER
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Gainful Employment regulations. To
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Thousands of 2015 Dollars 900 800 7
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externalities, credit constraints,
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Figure 5-4 Earnings by Age and Educ
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Figure 5-5 Variation in Earnings by
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Box 5-1: Anti-Poverty Efforts and E
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careers. Some of the effects of the
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eligibility cutoff likewise finds s
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Box 5-2: Federal Investments in K-1
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Evaluations of early local Promise
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America’s College Promise Playboo
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Dollars 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000
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pre-payment penalty. Second, by tyi
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equirements, pushed efforts associa
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Figure 5-16 Size of Outstanding Loa
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Figure 5-17 Average Monthly Payment
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Figure 5-18 Distribution of Key Out
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Figure 5-20 Earnings by Family Inco
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to student needs and improve test s
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Box 5-5: Making Sure Students Enter
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prior, the early FAFSA reform helps
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Figure 5-ii Number of Institutions
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Figure 5-23 Gainful Employment Earn
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Additionally, Pell Grants can be be
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C H A P T E R 6 STRENGTHENING THE F
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with no easy way to get the funds f
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public has limited information, run
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value added of the sector has gradu
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managers. Thus, after fees, savers
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Too Many Resources in Finance? Beyo
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of the firm after the purchase affe
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Percent 100 Figure 6-2 Mortgage Ori
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Figure 6-4 Case-Shiller Home Price
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Figure 6-7 Global OTC Derivative Ma
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consumer and investor protections.
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Figure 6-iv Top 5 Banks as Share of
Page 378 and 379:
cult to replace with services from
Page 380 and 381:
Are U.S. Banks Too Big? The questio
Page 382 and 383:
The three federal banking agencies
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Risk Taking The Dodd-Frank Act took
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Box 6-3: The Performance of Communi
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Figure 6-ix Return on Assets of Ban
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egulators can take a more holistic
Page 392 and 393:
Figure 6-13 Repo and Reverse Repo,
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Figure 6-15 Private Funds Reporting
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Days 60 Figure 6-16 Weighted-Averag
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Figure 6-18 Systemic Risk (SRISK),
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In the absence of another financial
Page 402 and 403:
lower funding costs in 2007-09, “
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through the Dodd-Frank Act and othe
Page 406 and 407:
Prior to the financial crisis, one
Page 408 and 409:
asis.24 One of the advantages of ce
Page 410 and 411:
findings from the NRSRO examination
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Prior to the crisis, enforcement of
Page 414 and 415:
Box 6-5: Addressing the Problem of
Page 416 and 417:
Table 6-i Sources of Investment Adv
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financial system and the systems of
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Box 6-6: The JOBS Act While it was
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Figure 6-23 S&P 500, 2003-2016 Inde
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Figure 6-27 Mortgage Delinquency an
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It created the FSOC to consider ris
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energy efficient and lower greenhou
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of domestic actions to reduce green
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people and vegetation (U.S. Global
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investment are much higher than the
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Delaying Action on Climate Change I
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uses and land management activities
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Carbon Pollution Standards for Powe
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a projected range of $16 billion to
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these resulted in insignificant cha
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Figure 7-4 Corporate Average Fuel E
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diesel fuel and jet fuel. The Vehic
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Box 7-3: Building Resilience to Cur
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sources in the oil and gas sector,
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emissions and total greenhouse gas
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Figure 7-7 Energy Intensity of Real
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Figure 7-10 U.S. Petroleum Consumpt
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Figure 7-12 Energy Intensity Transp
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Figure 7-14c Energy Intensity Comme
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Figure 7-16 U.S. Energy Consumption
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2008 to 7 percent in 2015. Figure 7
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Index, 2008 =0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 Figure
Page 471 and 472:
Figure 7-23 Decomposition of Emissi
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three determinants of emissions? If
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Percent 100 80 Figure 7-26 Sectoral
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characteristics, and management tre
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oil and gas sector) were subsequent
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while creating new jobs and raising
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such as using similar methodologies
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Box 7-4: Supporting Increased Penet
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sector, the fee would incentivize p
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to be used to decompose emissions i
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Reinvestment Act.” NBER Working P
Page 493 and 494:
D’Amico, Stefania, et al. 2012.
Page 495 and 496:
______. 2016. “Chapter 3: Develop
Page 497 and 498:
Chetty, Raj, et al. 2014. “Where
Page 499 and 500:
NBER Working Paper 22170. Cambridge
Page 501 and 502:
American Hospital Association and H
Page 503 and 504:
Cantor, Joel C., et al. 2012. “Ea
Page 505 and 506:
______. 2012a. “Direct Spending a
Page 507 and 508:
Dranove, David, Craig Garthwaite, a
Page 509 and 510:
Wars: Global Solutions for Developi
Page 511 and 512:
Huang, Jidong, and Frank J. Chaloup
Page 513 and 514:
McWilliams, J. Michael. 2016. “Ch
Page 515 and 516:
Pinkovskiy, Maxim. 2014. “The Imp
Page 517 and 518:
______. 2016. “Certification of M
Page 519 and 520:
Arcidiacono, Peter, V. Joseph Hotz,
Page 521 and 522:
Bulman, George, and Caroline Hoxby.
Page 523 and 524:
______. 2015a. “Economic Costs of
Page 525 and 526:
Dobbie, Will, and Roland G. Fryer J
Page 527 and 528:
Committee on Health, Education, Lab
Page 529 and 530:
Jepsen, Christopher, Kenneth Troske
Page 531 and 532:
Marcotte, Dave E., et al. 2005. “
Page 533 and 534:
Reynolds, Arthur J., et al. 2011.
Page 535 and 536:
Chapter 6 Acharya, Viral. V., Deniz
Page 537 and 538:
Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. Fre
Page 539 and 540:
Wheelock, David C., and Paul W. Wil
Page 541 and 542:
______. 2016a. “The Economics of
Page 543 and 544:
______. 2016c. Short Term Energy Ou
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Interagency Working Group on the So
Page 547 and 548:
Office of Management and Budget (OM
Page 550:
A P P E N D I X A REPORT TO THE PRE
Page 553 and 554:
Council Members and Their Dates of
Page 556 and 557:
Report to the President on the Acti
Page 558 and 559:
consulting with a wide variety of o
Page 560 and 561:
In October, the Council released a
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Research Economists David Boddy . .
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A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
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GOVERNMENT FINANCE, INTEREST RATES,
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Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-3. Quantity and price index
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Table B-5. Real exports and imports
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Year Total Table B-7. Real farm inc
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Table B-9. Median money income (in
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Labor Market Indicators Table B-11.
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Year or month Table B-12. Civilian
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Year or month Table B-15. Hours and
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Government Finance, Interest Rates,
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Table B-19. Federal receipts and ou
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Table B-21. Federal and State and l
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Table B-23. U.S. Treasury securitie
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Year and month Bills (at auction) 1
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Year and month Table B-26. Money st
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