ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT

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accountable-care-organizations-in-2016-private-and-publicsector-growth-and-dispersion/). Mulligan, Casey. 2013. “The Perils of Significant Misunderstanding in Evaluating Medicaid.” The New York Times. June 26. (http://economix. blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/26/the-perils-of-significant-misunderstandings-in-evaluating-medicaid/?_r=0). ______. 2014a. “The ACA: Some Unpleasant Welfare Arithmetic.” NBER Working Paper 20020. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. ______. 2014b. “The Economics of Work Schedules under the New Hours and Employment Taxes.” NBER Working Paper 19936. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. Musco, Thomas D., and Benjamin D. Sommers. 2012. “Under The Affordable Care Act, 105 Million Americans No Longer Face Lifetime Limits on Health Benefits.” ASPE Issue Brief. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation. Newhouse, Joseph P. 1992. “Medical Care Costs: How Much Welfare Loss?” The Journal of Economic Perspectives 6(3): 3-21. Newhouse, Joseph P, et al. 1993. Free for All? Lessons from the RAND Health Insurance Experiment. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Nyman, John A. 1999. “The Value of Health Insurance: The Access Motive.” Journal of Health Economics 18(1999): 141-52. Nyweide, David J., et al. 2015. “Association of Pioneer Accountable Care Organizations vs Traditional Medicare Fee for Service With Spending, Utilization, and Patient Experience.” Journal of the American Medical Association 313(21): 2152-61. Obama, Barack. 2016. “United States Health Care Reform: Progress to Date and Next Steps.” Journal of the American Medical Association 316(5): 525-32. Pauly, Mark V. 1968. “The Economics of Moral Hazard: Comment.” The American Economic Review 58(3): 531-7. Philipson, Tomas J., et al. 2010. “Geographic Variation in Health Care: The Role of Private Markets.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Washington: Brookings Institution. References | 509
Pinkovskiy, Maxim. 2014. “The Impact of the Political Response to the Managed Care Backlash on Health Care Spending: Evidence from State Regulations of Managed Care.” Working Paper. New York: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (https://www.newyorkfed.org/ medialibrary/media/research/economists/pinkovskiy/Impact_of_ Political_Backlash_on_Health_Care_Costs.pdf). ______. 2015. “The Affordable Care Act and the Labor Market: A First Look.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report 746. New York: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Porterfield, Shirley, and Jin Huang. 2016. “Affordable Care Act Provision Had Similar Positive Impacts For Young Adults With and Without Disabilities.” Health Affairs 35(5): 873-9. Richardson, Sam, Aaron Carroll, and Austin Frakt. 2013. “More Medicaid Study Power Calculations.” The Incidental Economist Blog. June 13. (http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/more-medicaidstudy-power-calculations-our-rejected-nejm-letter/). Roy, Avik. 2013. “The Medicaid Deniers.” National Review. May 14. (http://www.nationalreview.com/article/348200/ medicaid-deniers-avik-roy). RTI. 2016. “Evaluation of the Health Care Innovation Awards: Community Resource Planning, Prevention, and Monitoring, Annual Report 2015, Awardee Level Findings: YMCA of the USA.” Report. March. Research Triangle Park, NC. Ryu, Alexander J., et al. 2013. “The Slowdown In Health Care Spending In 2009–11 Reflected Factors Other Than the Weak Economy and Thus May Persist.” Health Affairs 32(5): 835-40. Shamliyan, Tatyana A., et al. 2008. “Just What the Doctor Ordered. Review of the Evidence of the Impact of Computerized Physician Order Entry System on Medication Errors.” Health Service Research 43(1): 32-53. Shartzer, Adele, Sharon K. Long, and Nathaniel Anderson. 2016. “Access to Care and Affordability Have Improved Following the Affordable Care Act Implementation; Problems Remain.” Health Affairs 35(1): published online. Sheiner, Louise. 2014. “Perspectives on Health Care Spending Growth.” Hutchins Center Working Paper 4. Washington: Brookings Institution Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy. 510 | References
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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eforms in history. Banks have sharp
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1: EIGHT YE
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. THE ECONOMIC RATIONALE FOR FEDERA
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2.4. Government Purchases as Share
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4.iii. Premium for the Benchmark Pl
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6.18. Systemic Risk (SRISK) 2005-20
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C H A P T E R 1 EIGHT YEARS OF RECO
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Figure 1-1 Actual and Consensus For
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Figure 1-3 Real Hourly Wage Growth
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Figure 1-4 Real GDP per Capita: Eur
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Figure 1-6 Household Net Worth in t
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Figure 1-8 Global Trade Flows in th
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Subsequent revisions to fourth-quar
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Percent 6 Figure 1-9 Fiscal Expansi
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substantial costs to the Federal Go
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worked to promote innovation and in
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expansion, a period of low producti
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The 2017 Economic Report of the Pre
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Chapter 4: Reforming the Health Car
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to the ACA and other factors. The A
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than 98 percent of Americans should
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Figure 1-13 Borrowers in Income Dri
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success of the financial rescue and
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einforced U.S. leadership in the ru
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Partnership (OGP), a global partner
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Figure 1-16 Labor Productivity Grow
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Labor Force Participation Household
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number of steps to ensure that econ
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C H A P T E R 2 THE YEAR IN REVIEW
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Percent 11 Figure 2-1 Unemployment
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allowing for additional investments
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Percentage Point 0.6 0.4 Figure 2-3
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public, largely highway constructio
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The size of the Federal Reserve’s
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Figure 2-5 Private-Sector Payroll E
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fell 80 percent from September 2014
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Figure 2-8 Rates of Part-Time Work,
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Figure 2-v Prime-Age Male Labor For
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Output Real GDP grew 1.6 percent ov
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Figure 2-11 Compensation and Consum
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Table 2-i Optimal Weighting for Hou
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esults suggest that, to a first app
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Figure 2-viii Real GDP, Average and
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Figure 2-13 Consumer Sentiment and
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Figure 2-xi Household Debt Service,
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Ratio to Annual DPI 1.10 1.05 Figur
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Figure 2-17 National House Price In
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Index 220 Figure 2-19 Housing Affor
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Figure 2-21 Composition of Growth i
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Figure 2-23 Capital Services per Un
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Box 2-7: Explanations for the Recen
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Figure 2-xv Business Fixed Investme
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Figure 2-26 Foreign Real GDP and U.
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somewhat generalizable (Box 2-8), b
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prices weakened and the global econ
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inadequate demand has contributed t
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Figure 2-31 Nominal Wage Inflation
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Figure 2-33 Real Hourly Wage Growth
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Index 6 Figure 2-36 Financial Condi
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Percent 4.0 Figure 2-38 Nominal Lon
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Dollars per Barrel 80 Figure 2-40 B
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Figure 2-41 IMF World Real GDP Grow
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against the Mexican peso, the Chine
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United Kingdom It has been a turbul
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for example, Japan has grown almost
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Figure 2-45 Credit to Nonfinancial
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Meanwhile, core inflation (excludin
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kept rates low across a wide range
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Investments in surface transportati
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Table 2-2 Supply-Side Components of
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Conclusion The economy continued to
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not increased from 1973 to 2013, in
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developments; individual behavior;
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action affecting income inequality
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have occurred. In doing so, these p
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Percent 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 African
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without the policy response.5 These
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Box 3-2: Income Inequality and the
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unable to obtain insurance at any p
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Figure 3-7B Percent 50 Uninsured Ra
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and have not expanded Medicaid foun
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Box 3-3: Safety Net Policies as Ins
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Millions of People 18 Figure 3-8 Im
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Figure 3-9 Effective Tax Rates for
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Box 3-4: Additional Actions to Make
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$294 million in newly appropriated
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15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Figure 3-12 Pe
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Administration with those of previo
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as a share of potential GDP by Pres
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Figure 3-17 Changes in the Distribu
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30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Single Source: C
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ate on capital gains and dividends
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C H A P T E R 4 REFORMING THE HEALT
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eneficiaries have received cumulati
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form of lower premium costs and ind
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Percent 25 20 Creation of Medicare
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Figure 4-3 Health Insurance Coverag
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90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 25 55
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Percent Uninsured 25 CHIP Created 2
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Legislative actions subsequent to C
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Percent Uninsured 40 35 Figure 4-7
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ecause of the ACA’s provision all
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Box 4-2: Dynamics in the Individual
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projected during the debate over th
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whelming majority of Marketplace en
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Figure 4-v Change in Benchmark Prem
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20 Figure 4-10 Share of Workers in
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percent during the decade preceding
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Panel A: Share with a Personal Doct
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Box 4-3: Interpreting Results from
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Fortunately, the OHIE is not the on
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Figure 4-14 Uncompensated Care as a
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Figure 4-15 Uninsured Rate by Popul
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Figure 4-17 Monthly Gain in Private
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Change in Working-Age Employment to
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this cross-sectional relationship b
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ecent discussions of macroeconomic
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Figure 4-23 Life Expectancy at Birt
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Figure 4-24 Mortality Rate vs. Medi
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more to cover Medicare patients tha
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example, through CMMI, the Administ
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orient payment around the entirety
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Percent of Payments 60 Figure 4-26
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covered under ACO contracts at the
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Additional Steps to Reform the Heal
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legislation that overrides the reco
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Figure 4-28 Health Care Price Infla
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Figure 4-30 Trends in Real Prices f
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average growth rate of real per enr
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Figure 4-34 Growth in Real Costs fo
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made a large, readily quantifiable
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in states experiencing weaker and s
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distribution, holding fixed both sp
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individuals among individuals 65 an
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Figure 4-40 Average Real Deductible
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Figure 4-41 Real Per-Enrollee Presc
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educe the growth rate of Medicare s
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improvements will strengthen ACOs
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-5 0 -2 Figure 4-42 Cumulative Perc
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Woolhandler 2015). These analysts a
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productivity on the job. These bene
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Figure 4-46 Premiums and Cost Shari
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(KFF 2016). Another fifth of tradit
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2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018
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C H A P T E R 5 INVESTING IN HIGHER
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Gainful Employment regulations. To
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Thousands of 2015 Dollars 900 800 7
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externalities, credit constraints,
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Figure 5-4 Earnings by Age and Educ
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Figure 5-5 Variation in Earnings by
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Box 5-1: Anti-Poverty Efforts and E
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careers. Some of the effects of the
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eligibility cutoff likewise finds s
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Box 5-2: Federal Investments in K-1
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Evaluations of early local Promise
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America’s College Promise Playboo
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Dollars 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000
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pre-payment penalty. Second, by tyi
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equirements, pushed efforts associa
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Figure 5-16 Size of Outstanding Loa
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Figure 5-17 Average Monthly Payment
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Figure 5-18 Distribution of Key Out
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Figure 5-20 Earnings by Family Inco
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to student needs and improve test s
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Box 5-5: Making Sure Students Enter
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prior, the early FAFSA reform helps
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Figure 5-ii Number of Institutions
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Figure 5-23 Gainful Employment Earn
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Additionally, Pell Grants can be be
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C H A P T E R 6 STRENGTHENING THE F
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with no easy way to get the funds f
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public has limited information, run
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value added of the sector has gradu
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managers. Thus, after fees, savers
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Too Many Resources in Finance? Beyo
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of the firm after the purchase affe
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Percent 100 Figure 6-2 Mortgage Ori
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Figure 6-4 Case-Shiller Home Price
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Figure 6-7 Global OTC Derivative Ma
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consumer and investor protections.
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Figure 6-iv Top 5 Banks as Share of
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cult to replace with services from
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Are U.S. Banks Too Big? The questio
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The three federal banking agencies
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Risk Taking The Dodd-Frank Act took
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Box 6-3: The Performance of Communi
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Figure 6-ix Return on Assets of Ban
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egulators can take a more holistic
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Figure 6-13 Repo and Reverse Repo,
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Figure 6-15 Private Funds Reporting
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Days 60 Figure 6-16 Weighted-Averag
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Figure 6-18 Systemic Risk (SRISK),
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In the absence of another financial
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lower funding costs in 2007-09, “
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through the Dodd-Frank Act and othe
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Prior to the financial crisis, one
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asis.24 One of the advantages of ce
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findings from the NRSRO examination
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Prior to the crisis, enforcement of
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Box 6-5: Addressing the Problem of
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Table 6-i Sources of Investment Adv
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financial system and the systems of
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Box 6-6: The JOBS Act While it was
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Figure 6-23 S&P 500, 2003-2016 Inde
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Figure 6-27 Mortgage Delinquency an
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It created the FSOC to consider ris
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energy efficient and lower greenhou
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of domestic actions to reduce green
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people and vegetation (U.S. Global
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investment are much higher than the
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Delaying Action on Climate Change I
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uses and land management activities
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Carbon Pollution Standards for Powe
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a projected range of $16 billion to
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these resulted in insignificant cha
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Figure 7-4 Corporate Average Fuel E
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diesel fuel and jet fuel. The Vehic
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Box 7-3: Building Resilience to Cur
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sources in the oil and gas sector,
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emissions and total greenhouse gas
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Figure 7-7 Energy Intensity of Real
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Figure 7-10 U.S. Petroleum Consumpt
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Figure 7-12 Energy Intensity Transp
Page 463 and 464: Figure 7-14c Energy Intensity Comme
Page 465 and 466: Figure 7-16 U.S. Energy Consumption
Page 467 and 468: 2008 to 7 percent in 2015. Figure 7
Page 469 and 470: Index, 2008 =0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 Figure
Page 471 and 472: Figure 7-23 Decomposition of Emissi
Page 473 and 474: three determinants of emissions? If
Page 475 and 476: Percent 100 80 Figure 7-26 Sectoral
Page 477 and 478: characteristics, and management tre
Page 479 and 480: oil and gas sector) were subsequent
Page 481 and 482: while creating new jobs and raising
Page 483 and 484: such as using similar methodologies
Page 485 and 486: Box 7-4: Supporting Increased Penet
Page 487 and 488: sector, the fee would incentivize p
Page 489 and 490: to be used to decompose emissions i
Page 491 and 492: Reinvestment Act.” NBER Working P
Page 493 and 494: D’Amico, Stefania, et al. 2012.
Page 495 and 496: ______. 2016. “Chapter 3: Develop
Page 497 and 498: Chetty, Raj, et al. 2014. “Where
Page 499 and 500: NBER Working Paper 22170. Cambridge
Page 501 and 502: American Hospital Association and H
Page 503 and 504: Cantor, Joel C., et al. 2012. “Ea
Page 505 and 506: ______. 2012a. “Direct Spending a
Page 507 and 508: Dranove, David, Craig Garthwaite, a
Page 509 and 510: Wars: Global Solutions for Developi
Page 511 and 512: Huang, Jidong, and Frank J. Chaloup
Page 513: McWilliams, J. Michael. 2016. “Ch
Page 517 and 518: ______. 2016. “Certification of M
Page 519 and 520: Arcidiacono, Peter, V. Joseph Hotz,
Page 521 and 522: Bulman, George, and Caroline Hoxby.
Page 523 and 524: ______. 2015a. “Economic Costs of
Page 525 and 526: Dobbie, Will, and Roland G. Fryer J
Page 527 and 528: Committee on Health, Education, Lab
Page 529 and 530: Jepsen, Christopher, Kenneth Troske
Page 531 and 532: Marcotte, Dave E., et al. 2005. “
Page 533 and 534: Reynolds, Arthur J., et al. 2011.
Page 535 and 536: Chapter 6 Acharya, Viral. V., Deniz
Page 537 and 538: Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. Fre
Page 539 and 540: Wheelock, David C., and Paul W. Wil
Page 541 and 542: ______. 2016a. “The Economics of
Page 543 and 544: ______. 2016c. Short Term Energy Ou
Page 545 and 546: Interagency Working Group on the So
Page 547 and 548: Office of Management and Budget (OM
Page 550: A P P E N D I X A REPORT TO THE PRE
Page 553 and 554: Council Members and Their Dates of
Page 556 and 557: Report to the President on the Acti
Page 558 and 559: consulting with a wide variety of o
Page 560 and 561: In October, the Council released a
Page 562 and 563: Research Economists David Boddy . .
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A P P E N D I X B STATISTICAL TABLE
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GOVERNMENT FINANCE, INTEREST RATES,
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Year or quarter Table B-1. Percent
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-3. Quantity and price index
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Table B-5. Real exports and imports
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Year Total Table B-7. Real farm inc
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Table B-9. Median money income (in
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Labor Market Indicators Table B-11.
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Year or month Table B-12. Civilian
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Year or month Table B-15. Hours and
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Government Finance, Interest Rates,
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Table B-19. Federal receipts and ou
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Table B-21. Federal and State and l
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Table B-23. U.S. Treasury securitie
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Year and month Bills (at auction) 1
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Year and month Table B-26. Money st
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